The Future of Broadband: A Glimpse Ahead

What shape the internet will take in the future is wide open and very exciting. The way we connect to it, is also very interesting, and both are ever evolving. One thing is for sure, most governments and all business's want internet access available to everyone on the planet. How this may be achieved in a reliable, timely and cost effective manor, using the technologies that are available now and on the near horizon is what we'll cover here.

Broadband over Power lines (BPL) seems to fit the three basic requirements. PBL uses a different frequency spectrum than electricity so they can co-exist on the same line. The idea here is that you could have internet access by plugging a BPL modem into any electric socket in the world. Current tests are achieving speeds up to 45 mbs, using a DS2 chip and several companies claim that 200 mbs will be achievable in the near future. There have been several world wide tests run, and tests are now spreading out across the United Sates. These tests have shown a possible problem with shared lines, which slows speeds down, similar to cable. Another concern is the complaint, that it causes interference with radio signals, especialy licensed radio operators. Commonly know as "HAM" operators. This is of special concern because "HAM" radio is used as a communications link in times of disaster, when other systems are down. This interference is due to the fact that most of the power lines are above ground and lightly shielded. How well these problems can be addressed, will have a great bearing on its world wide application.

ADSL2 and ADSL2+ These are the next generation of DSL (Digital Subscriber Line). DSL can only get a reliable connection of about 1 mile from the Telco switching station and speeds up to 8 mbs. These next generation systems offer about 4 mile reach and speeds up to 25 mbs. They will carry more than Broadband and telephone .The system will also carry HDTV signal, so very similar to a cable feed, but not on a shared line. This system is very limited to high population areas and proximity to a switching station, to be financially practical. Rural areas seem to be out of the mix for now.

802.16 "WiMax" Wireless This system has a range of about 30 miles and speeds up to 70 mbs.This is a "beefed" up "WI-FI" system."WI-FI" has about 1 mile range and 20 mbs, and is greatly reduced by line of site interference, like buildings, hills and weather."WI-FI" is currently being rolled out in densely populated areas. The receive/transmit stations (hot spots) are relatively inexpensive to set up, and make it a good choice. With "WI-MAX" the stations cost about $100,000 each. But with the increased range are viable for smaller cities, towns and high traffic areas. This system seems to be very well suited, and with future improvements may be the answer to a large majority of the world when combined with satellite systems. The feed from a satellite station then transmitted by a "WI-MAX" transmitter to the coverage area. Mountains and weather do have some effect, but is manageable. Somewhat like a local radio station. This system is also the best solution for mobility. With the basics from cell phones, and the towers already in most areas, it is very feasible. The ever improving signal quality and range make this system set to go in high population and traffic areas.

Satellite Systems: These systems are now in allot of homes with TV feed and offer the only viable solution to remote locations. For campers, RV and remote homes this gives them a feed. The cost for the home type feed is acceptable with a mobile setup running about $2500 and $800 installation. With speeds up 2 or 3 Gbs (1 gigabyte is roughly 1000 mbs) in the very near future, there allot of possibilities. As mentioned above, combined with "WI-MAX" or linked into an optical or coax fiber system this may be a good system for rural areas. Small towns get "cable" this way now, but sent to the home over coaxial cable, not yet fiber. The weather is a problem with satellite feeds, but like cost it to should improve rather quickly. When satellite systems get these two problems worked out, they seemed positioned to make major leap forward in the broadband field.

Fiber to the Home (FTTH) For this discussion we'll combine the two types, optical and coax fibers. Both hold a great deal of promise, with speeds in the GBS and talk of reaching TBS (terabytes= 1000 gigabytes) in the very near future. The biggest drawback is in the physical "laying" of the lines. This is from, both a time consideration as well as costs. These systems have to be in rather heavily populated regions to make the cost reasonable. These like all "hard wired" systems including BPL are greatly affected by infrastructure. Which in most cases not optimal at this time, but will be upgraded as the roll outs take place? In the U.S. as in many countries, the switching stations and power grids are in need of serious upgrades.

In conclusion, the system that can overcome its own particular problems, and cover the three main needs will come out on top. I think that in the near term it will be as it is now, a combination of them. Wireless is making the widest roll out, with fiber right behind in heavily populated areas. Rural as well as Metropolitan areas will use a satellite/fiber combination or satellite/WI-MAX paired up. Remote locations have satellite for the foreseeable future. This is an exciting time for us all. With cable offering the convergence packages already of, Broadband, Telephone and HDTV all from one source. FTTH and Satellite systems are closing the gap quickly. The prime factor for what type you have will be mostly determined by where you live. With the speed, reliability and new systems that are sure to be developed, it stirs our imaginations, and is only limited by our imaginations.