The Future of the Personal Computer

In 2007, two titans (and in many peoples' minds, mortal enemies) of the technology industry participated in a joint discussion about the face of computing. Bill Gates-former Microsoft head honcho-had this to say about the subject of tablet computers:

"I don't think you'll have one device. I think you'll have a full-screen device that you can carry around and you'll do dramatically more reading off of that... yeah, I mean, I believe in the tablet form factor [...] You'll have some way of having a hardware keyboard and some settings for that. And then you'll have the device that fits in your pocket, which the whole notion of how much function should you combine in there, you know, there's navigation computers, there's media, there's phone" (1).

Next to him sat Steve Jobs, the charismatic head of Apple. Jobs disagreed with what Gates was saying: "The PC [personal computer], this general purpose device, is going to continue to be with us, whether it's a tablet or a notebook or a big curved desktop that you have in your house, or whatever it might be," he said.

What many gadget blogs pointed out years later was that, in many ways, Jobs appeared to be agreeing with Gates in practice-witness the iPad, a tablet computer that sold two million units in just two months (2). The iPad is in that "tablet form factor", with a virtual keyboard, while the iPhone has continued to be tremendously successful as the pocket-sized smartphone. But, on a deeper level, Jobs hasn't really changed his mind at all, or at least hasn't had to. The iPad still fits in with his concept of how people use their devices-while people can use their iPads and iPhones to read and grab some content, the "home base" is still a device at home, the venerable (and by computer standards, ancient) personal computer.

But is this likely to be the model for computing in the future? Gates believes that it's likely that the personal computer will devolve into a portable tablet that can be interfaced with larger screens on the go. Both men believe that any main device will be supplemented by smaller gadgets. On the other hand, there are many who think that just one portable device will rule them all, and that the days of desktop-based computers are waning.

There's evidence to prove them on the right track, you see. Sales of laptops have become stronger whereas desktop sales have lagged for years now. Advances in technology have also strengthened the place of the laptop. Fifteen, even ten years ago, most laptops that were powerful enough to do anything were also heavy bricks of plastic and metal. Now a "heavy" laptop is one that's more than an inch thick, and smaller and more energy-efficient processors mean more power can be squeezed out of even smaller real estate.

On top of these developments in processors is the coming of the OLED. OLED stands for "organic light emitting diode", and is an evolution beyond the thin and energy-efficient LEDs penetrating the consumer market. OLEDs take the screen one step further towards speculative fiction; recently, Sony unveiled a flexible OLED screen that is just 80μm thick. OLEDs are so durable they can be made this thin, allowing the screen to be physically folded up like a newspaper (3). Such screens could in the future allow our computers and displays to be paper thin and portable, like readouts seen in Gene Roddenberry's science fiction series Andromeda. Taken in another direction, a consumer could cover their walls in the stuff and create an instant house-sized wallpaper or projection-or half of a holodeck from Star Trek.

But don't think that the debate over the shape of personal computing is finished. Sure, portability is great, but OLEDs aren't a magic bullet, and there are practical limitations in making something really small. OLED displays and lighting are about five years away, CBS suggests, and even then their full potential will be unreachable, prohibitively expensive, or both (4).

Furthermore, remember that even titans of the industry can be dead wrong about what's the next big thing. Steve Jobs is lucky in that he hasn't had a major failure in a decade-but Apple's G4 Cube was one of the company's biggest mistakes. Likewise, Bill Gates was certain a few years ago that the next area of our lives to be computerized was the wristwatch like Dick Tracy (5)-never mind that no one wears watches anymore (why do so when your cell phone, tablet and laptop tell you the time?)

The moral of the story is, a technology revolution is in full swing; what's coming next, however, is anyone's best guess.

References
* (1) Edwards, Jon (May 19, 2010). "How Bill Gates Predicted the iPad While Steve Jobs Watched". Techi. Retrieved June 29, 2010.
* (2) Yarow, Jay (May 31, 2010). "Apple's 2 Million iPad Sales in Context". Business Insider. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
* (3) "Sony Rollable Colour OLED Display". GadgetVenue. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
* (4) Axelrod, Jim (June 20, 2010). "The Changing Shape of Light". CBS. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
* (5) Hesseldahl, Arik (January 9, 2003). "Microsoft Plots Wristwatch Revolution". Forbes. Retrieved June 30, 2010.