The GOP Battle for Florida: How a 4 Way Race Will Determine the GOP Presidential Nominee

So it all comes down to this for the Republican GOP party. No state will be as important in the coming weeks as the Florida Republican primary which will be Saturday. At this important juncture in the Republican primary, a field of 9 potential candidates has been whittled down to four major candidates. Ron Paul has never been a serious challenger to be the Republican nominee although he has gotten as much as 10% of the vote in some states. Former Senator Fred Thompson is also close to dropping out of the race. Therefore, the four GOP presidential hopefuls we are left with are Arizona Senator John McCain, Governors Mitt Romney of Massachusetts and Mike Huckabee of Arkansas and New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

McCain has so far won the New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary. Mitt Romney has won the Nevada and Wyoming caucuses and the Michigan primary. Huckabee has won the Iowa caucus. Giuliani has been waiting to make his stand in Florida and can still win the party nominee.

The state of Florida marks the first contested state where all four of these candidates will be actively campaigning. This is where the party race will get downright nasty and when the dust settles and this state is decided, the Republican Party should have its presidential nominee.

The main issue that will likely be discussed is the economy. Rudy Giuliani has recently unveiled a new tax plan which would be largest tax cut plan in the history of the United States. Mitt Romney whose strongest issue is the economy will also be a factor in Florida. Meanwhile, John McCain is coming fresh off of his win in South Carolina which was the first southern state that had a primary. McCain is believed to be the Republican Party front runner and if he wins in Florida this race will be all but over. As for Huckabee, his campaign seems to be reeling after his defeat in South Carolina, a state where he was expected to win because of the state's strong evangelical Christian base which appeals to Huckabee who was a former minister.

The Florida GOP race will determine much about this presidential election. If anyone other than McCain wins Florida, the GOP battle will not be decided until after Super Tuesday in which 22 states will be hosting their primaries. If Mitt Romney wins Florida, he should be in a dead heat with John McCain and some political analysts would say that Romney would then become the front runner of the Republican Party because he has won the most states and he has the most amount of money to spend which is always a crucial factor.

If Rudy Giuliani does not win Florida, he will be out of the GOP presidential race. Giuliani was initially the national GOP front runner for the party nominee according to national polls. However, he decided not to campaign in the early states including New Hampshire and Michigan where he had a chance to win. Giuliani has poured millions of dollars into winning Florida, not to mention much of his manpower into the Sunshine state. Florida has the most amounts of delegates up for grabs which is why its importance is magnified even more. If Giuliani wins Florida, then he still has a good chance at winning the party nominee because he can do well in states in the North and in the west, especially in high delegate states like New York and California.

I would be shocked if Huckabee wins Florida. If that happens, then all bets are off because this GOP race will head into a tailspin. Huckabee has a good shot at winning Florida because he is very likable.

Whoever wins the Florida primary for the GOP will gain incredible momentum heading into Super Tuesday which will almost definitely determine the party nominee.

Finally, there are the intangibles and miscellaneous things that could impact the Florida primary. If Fred Thompson drops out before the Florida primary which is very likely, political analysts say that he will support longtime friend John McCain. In the last GOP debate, Thompson viciously attacked Huckabee on his conservative track record. Thompson also dislikes Romney. If Thompson were to support McCain, McCain would get a big boost in the polls with right wing conservative voters and McCain could get that edge to win the Florida primary.

Current polls have Giuliani and McCain at neck and neck with Romney and Huckabee close behind. This will certainly be one of the biggest and most interesting primaries yet to come.