The Gulf Oil Spill Appears Worse Than Originally Thought

The oil continues to flow from the rig that exploded in Aril 20, 2010. Originally thought to be spilling about 100 barrels a day, it was quickly upped to 5000 barrels a day. On Wednesday the Mobile Press Register became aware of a confidential memo from the Coast guard that there is fear that the unchecked gusher will possibly soon begin spilling 10 times that amount into the Gulf if two additional release points deteriorate any further. This information was documented by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Emergency Response Division.

If this should occur the volume of oil released into the Gulf daily will be more like 50,000 barrels a day rather than the currently estimated 5,000. Spokesmen for the USCG say they are preparing for the worst.

Stephen spears, chairman of the petroleum engineering department at Louisiana State University has been quoted as saying that "A good well in the Gulf can produce 30,000 barrels a day in a controlled situation". He has no idea what could possibly be produced in an uncontrolled situation.

The scenario for such an uncontrolled situation is if the Deepwater Horizon's well loses its wellhead and kinked piping currently restricting the flow to 5,000 barrels. If the wellhead is lost oil would enter the Gulf at a much greater rate.

BP has begun drilling a relief well which they expect to take about three months to complete. BP executive Doug Suttles has acknowledged that there is concern for erosion of the wellhead. Should this occur it would be a totally unprecedented event. There would be offgassing from that much oil and, depending on the wind, could cause significant health issues for the surrounding communities.

Weather conditions have been a factor is the race to contain the spill. Alabama Governor Riley is considering calling out the National Guard but has put that on hold until he can determine the number of volunteers who come forth to help.

There is a heavy mood of pessimism among folks who make their living in the fishing and tourism industries. Should the spill hit the Alabama shore it is estimated that billions of dollars in tourism money will be lost this summer.