The Marbury Jam

It's summertime, the time of year when basketball fans sit back and play armchair GM. So far, there has been a little bit to talk about with the relocation of Baron Davis, Elton Brand, and Corey Maggette. There is still some speculation left to discuss with the futures of Luol Deng, Ben Gordon, and Emeka Okafur still in doubt. And, of course, for Knick fans there is the epic Stephon Marbury dilemma.

The Knicks find themselves in quite a pickle with Marbury. The general consensus in the New York media is that Marbury is a locker room cancer and that his presence alone hurts the Knicks' chances at winning, but the problem is that his contract makes him virtually untradeable. Before any of us jump the gun as armchair GM's, let's take a look at the three options: trade him, release him, and keep him.

Why the Knicks Can't Trade Marbury

The Knicks can't trade Marbury simply because the numbers don't work. Marbury is set to make almost $22 million in 2008-2009 and no cellar dwelling team is going to want to take on that contract. The fact of the matter is that the only teams who would be willing to take a $22 million chance on Marbury would be teams with a legitimate chance at a championship now. The problem with that is, of the teams with the ten best records in the league last year, none of them have the ability to take on Marbury's contract.

The Pistons, Hornets, Spurs, Suns, Jazz, Rockets, and Mavericks have Chauncey Billups, Chris Paul, Tony Parker, Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Steve Francis, and Jason Kidd respectively. This means that even if any of these teams could pull off a trade that would work under the rules of the salary cap, they wouldn't have a need to, so it's not worth talking about.

The other three teams in last year's top ten are all over the salary cap. According to the rules of the salary cap, this means that they cannot acquire more than 125% plus $100,000 of the salary they trade away. More specifically, to take on Marbury's salary of $21,937,500, they would have to trade away at least $17,470,000 in salary.

To complicate matters, the Knicks currently have sixteen players on their roster, one more than they can have at the start of the season. This means that any deal to get rid of Marbury would not only have to match salaries, but it would have to match player count as well.

After last season's game of musical point guards, it might be worth it for the Magic to take a chance of Stephon Marbury, but in order to make the trade work under salary cap rules, the Magic would have to give up either Rashard Lewis or Dwight Howard. Acquiring Marbury wouldn't be worth giving up either one of these players.The Celtics could utilize Marbury and he has already expressed and interest in playing for Boston. The problem is that the Celtics couldn't feasibly put together a package for Marbury. Take out the Celtics' three untouchables (Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, and Paul Pierce) and the C's total payroll is $12,653,176. The math doesn't work out.

The only team that might have an interest in Marbury and be able to make the dollars work is the Lakers. Lamar Odom, who is set to make $14,559,000 in 2008-2009 has already been rumored to be on the trading block and the Lakers have Luke Walton and Vladimir Radmanovic who are capable of filling the void at the 3 spot should Odom go. The numbers could work out in a Marbury-Odom deal if the Lakers threw in Derek Fischer and the Knicks added Mardy Collins.

Though Lakers coach Phil Jackson is used to dealing with eccentric personalities such as Dennis Rodman, incorporating Marbury's ego into a championship caliber team may not be the only obstacle to this potential deal. Lamar Odom is a New York native, and for whatever reason, New York natives often have trouble playing ball in New York; just look at Marbury. Having said that, Odom's contract expires this year as well, so he wouldn't be a big risk for the Knicks and he would fit into D'Antoni's system nicely. On Los Angeles' side, however, a major personnel change might not make sense at this point. Though adding a guard like Marbury may seem enticing, the Lakers have not yet had the opportunity to see their front court of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Odom play together. If Odom is to get dealt this season, it may not be until after these three have the chance to meld on the floor.

The other complication would be Derek Fischer. Fischer requested his release from the Jazz in 2007 after his daughter was diagnosed with cancer. At the time, his two target cities were New York and Los Angeles, the two cities that he felt gave his daughter the best treatment opportunities. Though she has received some medical treatment in New York, Fischer and his family have settled in the Los Angeles area and he may not be willing to relocate again given their extraordinary circumstances. If the Lakers could not include Fischer's salary in the deal, they would have to add two players to make the numbers work. The Knicks, would then have to make a two-for-one trade with another team, or have to cut another player before the start of training camp. While cutting a player as a result of a trade may not seem appealing, cutting a $2 million player is more appealing than cutting a $22 million player. Either way, a deal sending Marbury to L.A. may be possible, but it's a long shot to happen before the season starts.

Why They Can't Release Marbury

If the Knicks are going to release or buy out Marbury's contract, they will still have to pay his full salary or close to it. Marbury could then sign with any team for the veteran minimum of $1,262,275. Even a team over the salary cap could execute this move by utilizing either the Minimum Salary Exception. If Knicks management honestly feels that Marbury is that much of a problem in the locker room, this move may be considered, but the Knicks need to consider how much this could hurt them if he is acquired by an Eastern Conference rival.

Figuring that Marbury would only be willing to play for a team where he could start, New Jersey and Miami are the only two Eastern Conference cellar dwellers where he could realistically land. Because of Marbury's history in New Jersey, this may be a reach.

As far as Eastern Conference contenders go, Marbury could have value to the Celtics or Magic as mentioned above. In regards to the Celtics, though, the NBA rumor mills have circulated that Paul Pierce is not a fan of Marbury and that could be enough to keep him out of Boston. If he became available for the Minimum Salary Exception, Marbury could find himself a target of the Cleveland Cavaliers, helping to relieve some of the offensive pressure from LeBron James. Also, the Wizards could slide Arenas to shooting guard and play Marbury at the point.

Though there are also some Western Conference teams that could have interest in Marbury, there are six teams in the East that may legitimately look to pick him up if he's released. Given the fact that four of them are probably playoff bound and Marbury's home and family are in New York, it seems probable that he would land in the Eastern Conference. This means that by releasing him, the Knicks would pay him over $21 million and have to play against him four or five times during the course of the year. In a conference where thirty-five wins may get you into the playoffs, that's a big gamble to take.

Why They Should Keep Him

One of the knocks on Marbury is that while he's a great statistical player, he's not a winner. He's not a championship player, I'll give you that, but the Knicks are not a championship team. The most they could really hope for is to sneak into the first round of the playoffs, and Marbury has helped his teams do that in the past. Prior to landing in New York, Marbury had led his team to the playoffs in three of his seven NBA seasons.

Marbury was actually not considered to be a distraction to the Knicks during his first few seasons in New York. Initially, he was considered a valued member of the team. It was not until the 2005-2006 that his presence became a distraction to the team, and in every major case of Marbury being a distraction, there was a trail that led back to Isiah Thomas.

The first instance of Marbury becoming a distraction came about after the hiring of Larry Brown. Brown and Marbury did not get along well, but this should not have been a surprise as Larry Brown has had a history of not getting along with star players. Just look at his relationship with Allen Iverson. Zeke should have known this and considered it before hiring Brown. Then, at Brown's request, Thomas acquired Steve Francis from the Magic. Brown was gone after the '05-'06 campaign, but Francis stayed in New York for another year, continuing the confusion as to who would be the Knicks starting point guard and leader on the floor.

Then, there was Marbury's crazy summer of 2007. Sure he did some interviews where he said some crazy things like that he wanted to move to Italy, but there was nothing truly damaging done. Once again, Marbury did not become a distraction in 2007 until he was forced to testify in the sexual harassment case against Isiah Thomas.

Marbury again became a distraction when he feuded with Thomas and left the team during a road trip. This issue was compounded by Thomas taking a poll amongst the team as to whether or not Marbury should be suspended for this action, and then disregarding the results of the poll. Marbury's disappearing act would not have been such an issue with the team had Thomas honored the players' request to suspend him.

The final distraction of the 2007-2008 season came when Marbury decided to have surgery during the season. Can you blame him? Thomas had been riding him all season because of his court testimony, the Knicks had no shot at the playoffs, and he was injured. Why not get it over with? After all, the more games he helped the Knicks win at that point, the worse chance they'd have at a top draft pick.

D'Antoni is a players' coach. If anyone should be able to take a difficult player and make him happy, D'Antoni is the guy. He's already been doing the right thing. He's been talking to the veterans about Marbury. If they're alright with him being on the team, D'Antoni can make it work.

Think about this: losing brings out the worst in players, but losing because you're being led by a lunatic is going to make players act nutty. The Thomas Regime is over and players need to be granted amnesty. There are no championship hopes to be ruined this year. If Marbury acts up this season, the Knicks should suspend him, but the craziness of what happened last year is not entirely his fault.

The Knicks don't have a realistic shot at trading Marbury and if they release him he could end up hurting them. Though Marbury's career has had its bad moments, it has had good moments as well. He's going into a contract year where he needs to redeem himself and could have the opportunity to do so while playing for a player's coach in a system that is suited for his game. After going 23-59 last year, the Knicks have nothing to lose by keeping him around for one more year.

Sources:

http://hoopshype.com/salaries.htm

http://www.insidehoops.com/minimum-nba-salary.shtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap