The Message to America Revealed in the Current National Intelligence Estimate

The recently released National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) states with a high level of confidence that Iraq has at least temporarily halted its quest to acquire nuclear weapons. The NIE states, "Tehran's decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005."

One has to wonder that if the US intelligence community is revealing that they were incorrect on their previous assessment, what has happened recently to indicate that this current assessment is more reliable? After all it is an "estimate" with degrees of uncertainty. Should the United States declare that we were wrong and open our loving arms to those in Iraq that have declared their hostility toward us? Can the United States begin to breathe easy now and believe that Iran no longer possesses the desire to acquire a nuclear weapon?

If there is admitted error in the process, how can it be eliminated? The probable answer is that accurate intelligence in almost all cases will remain elusive. There have been great victories achieved through accurate intelligence and there have also been significant failures.

The acquisition of knowledge about the German "enigma machine" acquired during World War II led to a shortening of the war. At the same time, the failure of intelligence concerning the Pearl Harbor attack led to the deaths of thousands of Americans. Hindsight revealed a number of clues about the impending attack that were overlooked.

More recently, the 9-11 attack could have been prevented by adept assessment by intelligence officials. In fact, that failure led to a complete restructuring of our government to achieve more effective intelligence and security for our homeland. The current war in Iraq, may not have eventuated had accurate intelligence about WMD been available, however while critics of the war focus on the failure of intelligence officials about WMD, there certainly was a long list of justifiable reasons to aid Iraq in deposing a dictator that had used WMD in the past against his own people.

The collection, analysis and subsequent interpretation of the intelligence data that is available is always subject to the predispositions or biases of the human interpreters. Intelligence reports should always be approached with a skeptical view, however it would seem prudent that if error is known to exist in the process, then one should err on the side of caution.

Intelligence by its very nature requires interpretation and therefor will always be subject to the whims and fancies of the politicians who ultimately interpret it and establish the processes to respond.

It would seem that the current debate over the accuracy of intelligence about those that would seek to destroy our country leads one to believe even more strongly in the doctrine of deterrence. If America is to continue to occupy a position of leadership in the world then the only viable option is to maintain a strong military that can respond quickly and decisively to any lapses in intelligence that could lead to the downfall of our nation.