The NCAA Bracket Goes "Pop"?

OK, everybody who had Northern Iowa beating Kansas on a dagger through the heart by a guard who's half Iranian raise his hand. Hmmm...I think I see four hands on the Panthers' campus and some guy in suburban Indianapolis waving there. By now, of course, nearly everybody in the western world knows that Ali Farokhmanesh, a stumpy guard for Northern Iowa, buried a three-pointer against the mighty Jayhawks with about 30 seconds left in a basketball game in Oklahoma City yesterday, and Kansas' dream of a second national title in three years popped like a balloon at a six-year-old's birthday party.

Also popping were pool brackets held by hundreds of thousands of people nationwide. Or did they? Two things are apparent here for all those once-a-year bettors: 1) All those pundits like the Philadelphia Daily News' Dick Jerardi who declared 2006 (the George Mason year) an "aberration" were wrong, wrong, wrong. This is a bit surprising because Jerardi really knows two areas: college basketball and horseracing. He pointed out that in the last three years there have been only 15 upsets in the men's basketball tournament (that's a win by a team four seed lines lower in his world). This is a woeful 7.7%. George Mason's year, before this extended weekend of play, certainly seemed an oddity. Besides the rise of that Cinderella squad, no Final Four team in 2006 was a #1 seed either. A real oddity.

But 2), maybe upsets are on a four-year cycle.

Thus far this year, there have been eight "Jerardi upsets" and three other games that have been arguable upsets (any lower seed winner, excluding those who beat a team one line higher; that is, no #9 over a #8 is really an upset; neither is a #5 win over a #4 in round two). And whereas Arkansas - Pine Bluff was stripped of the Cinderella gown by Duke, as expected, the remaining Cinderellas seem stronger. Northern Iowa will likely replace George Mason in the lore of this tournament if they manage to get by the Maryland-Michigan State winner. Also not to be discounted are Washington and St. Mary's. The #11 Huskies in the West already have two "Jerardi upsets" under their belts (over #6 Marquette and #3 New Mexico), and the #10 Gaels (South) appear to be a very, very scrappy and competent team. Their leader, Omar Samhan, is a 6'11" Senior center who can shoot a three if needed. They have beaten #7 Richmond and #2 Villanova, a mysterious team with as yet undiscovered "issues." The Philly press will ferret that out; don't worry. (A fellow poolster e-mailed this morning that watching 'Nova yesterday was "about as good as taking colon prep." I replied that I had been watching Erin Brockovich.)

Like many, I have crossed off my predicted national champion (and ironically rose in my pool to the middle of the pack). If your pool is small enough and you too had Kansas winning it all, you could still win, though, depending on help from others. If you're in a larger pool and had Kansas, you can likely wave good-bye to your money. Somebody has to have Kentucky. A careful examination of the pool I'm in, though, reveals that no one has either those sharp-clawed Panthers of Northern Iowa or the fighting Gaels of St. Mary's at the end. (Somebody named "Turtle M." has Cornell winning it all, and unlike Kansas, the Big Red is still "in it." At #12, they will attempt to knock off the East's #4, Wisconsin, this afternoon in Jacksonville. "Turtle M.," however, is currently dead last.)

How much fun would a Northern Iowa-St. Mary's final be? Nobody anywhere has that in his (or her) bracket because, you see, actually picking a Cinderella is almost impossible. Jerardi's suggestions six days ago were Wofford and Sam Houston State.

Wrong and...wrong. Everybody is in March.

Source:

Jerardi, Dick. "Here's some select info to avoid bracket busting." Philadelphia Daily News 15 March 2010: W-14.