The Next Kosovo: The Possibility of Independence in Vojvodina

The devolution of Yugoslavia is under no means complete due to provinces that have broken off in the 2000s. Montenegro gained independence from Serbia on June 3^rd, 2006 and Kosovo did the same on February 17^th, 2008. These recent breaks have raised questions about Serbia's autonomous province, Vojvodina. It contains about twenty seven percent of Serbia's population and has twenty six ethnic minorities as well as six official languages. Independence prospects for the region seem bleak due to its multi-ethnic composition and lack of separatist political parties, but the tension to obtain independence is present in Vojvodina.

The ethnic breakdown in Serbia's northernmost province comprises of 65% Serbs, about 1.3 million people; 14% Hungarian, about 300,000 people; and with Slovaks being the third largest with 3% of Vojvodina's population with about 60,000 people. It is notable that Hungarians do not have a strong presence in the province as Albanians do in Kosovo (90% ethnic Albanians) and Montenegro (43% ethnic Montenegrins), but definitely enough to be heard and formally represented in the local level politics of Vojvodina.

Serbian Vojvodina was a part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in 1848 until 1849 when it was turned into a new province called Serbian Voivodship. The largest minority in Vojvodina were Hungarians and during the revolution, they demanded autonomy and protection from the Austrian Empire while the Serbs in the province simultaneously demanded more rights from the Hungarian government. This sparked a war between the Serbs and Hungarians in Vojvodina, which is important to take into account when analyzing the province's potential independence, even though this event took place a century and a half ago.

In more recent history, after the conclusion of World War I, Vojvodina was awarded to Serbia, but then occupied by the Nazis during World War II. Serbia officially granted it autonomy in 1946 due to the fact that Serbs only made up a small majority in the province. Yugoslavia granted both Vojvodina and Kosovo representation in the government and politics in the Yugoslav constitution of 1974. Slobodan Milosevic revoked Vojvodina and Kosovo's autonomous status and regained control of the two multi-national provinces in the late 1980s, being one of the factors that led to the eventual dissolution of Yugoslavia.

Tadic and Kostunica, the president and prime minister of Serbia, respectively, agreed that negotiations on Kosovo and its ethnic Albanians should happen in conjunction with the status of the ethnic Hungarians living in Vojvodina. The issue has even been elevated to the European Parliament in recent years, pointing out the violations of minority and ethnic rights within the province. Political parties in Hungary are pushing for the protection of their people in Serbia as well as some parties in Vojvodina such as the Democratic Community of Vojvodina Hungarians and the Democratic Party of Vojvodina Hungarians.

Violence began to stir up in Vojvodina in the summer of 2004. This has even strained ties between Hungary and Serbia, using the conflict against Serbia's possible accession into the European Union. 300,000 Hungarians live in the province as aforementioned, giving them the shorter straw when it comes to ethnic crimes. Assaults on Serbs by Hungarians are publicized, but the Serbian government fails to report the attacks on Hungarians by Serbs.

Important leaders in the movement for Vojvodina's independence include the allies Nenad Canak and Jozsef Kasza. Nenad Canak is the speaker of the Vojvodina Assembly, a firm critique of the Serbian government, and is pro-autonomy for Vojvodina. He uses the situations of the other breakaway provinces as models and learns from fellow seperatists on how to make progress towards independence.

Jozsef Kasza is an ethnic Hungarian politician that was part of the former Democratic Opposition of Serbia party. He is currently the chairman of the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians party and currently plays a passive role in advocating independence because of the bad conditions present such as Kosovo recently claiming independence. Patience will have to be a virtue for the Hungarian separatists as they wait for the situation and violence in Kosovo to cool off.

It is speculated that Vojvodina will eventually in the long run gain independence as have all other former Yugoslav territories and ethnic disparity in rights will be brought up against Serbia as it continues the long road to accession into the European Union. Strangely enough, an opinion poll in 2003 by the Skan Agency from the capital Novi Sad asked citizens about their feelings on Vojvodina's political status and only five percent of the population openly advocated independence. It must also come to mind that these statistics may be skewed because not all 2 million citizens participated in the poll. Also, it is probably that fear of government persecution led to such a high percentage to keep the current level of autonomy as it is.

Vojvodina has never sought independence, but many proclamations of independence in ethnic separatist states begin with violence and unrest between the minorities (or in Kosovo's case, majority). Hungary may hold the key to the Serbian province's independence which can be seen in its aggression towards Serbia's treatment of Magyars. In 1999, Hungary pushed for NATO's proposal to bomb Serbia which is linked back to retaliation and angst. Hungary which is a member of the European Union, holds veto power like every other member state and can block Serbia's accession after all Copenhagen criteria is met by Serbia. It might ask for more autonomy within Vojvodina or maybe even get as radical to asking for its independence in return for accession into the European Union.

Fortunately for Vojvodina, prospects are starting to look high especially with the election of a more peaceful, European Union oriented president Tadic and with Kosovar independence. Vojvodina and Kosovo are very comparable in that they both have heavy non-Serb minorities and both were equally autonomous under Tito as well as having their autonomy taken away by Milosevic at the beginning of the 1990s. Tadic has been quoted to be a protector of the ethnic Hungarians in Vojvodina whose votes helped bring him to power. They now enjoy a higher quality of life an increased security. Regardless of improved conditions, violence will turn up sooner or later in this is something Tadic is going to have to face.

There are many conditions that seem to skew hope for independence in Vojvodina. Tadic's party does not have total control in the Serbian parliament which would impose blockades if he ever proposed to grant Vojvodina more autonomy or independence. Kosovar independence as aforementioned on the other hand, gives hopes to Hungarian separatists and inspires them to follow suit. The ratio of Serbs to all other minorities in Vojvodina is roughly 1:1 while in Kosovo the ratio was 9 Albanians to every one Serb which might create problems if it ever were to gain independence as the population would be half Serb and half all the minorities combined. This could be comparable to Yugoslavia and its previous status as a multi-national and ethnic state.

All of these factors have to be weighed and counterbalanced and have time added on to analyze when Vojvodina will gain independence if it does. As more and more provinces around the world demand independence from their oppressor state, movements in places less active but with some separatist dreams, such as Vojvodina, will gain momentum and prove their need of independence by the revelation of ethnic crimes.