The Obama Census Controversy and the Birthrate Issue

The issue of who will oversee the 2010 United States census has been in the public arena for sometime now. Traditionally a task of the Commerce Department and under the oversight of the Secretary of Commerce, the Obama White House had made it clear that the Census Bureau would report directly to the White House rather than to Commerce. According to the website, the Strata-Sphere.com, the Obama administration announced that the census would remain under the direction of the Commerce department.

What was the controversy? The surface issue is the political ramifications of the census and its results. Census results determine the number of representatives that each state will be entitled to send to the U. S. Congress and thus affect the political balance of power. Census numbers determine how much federal aid flows to each state. Some people had seen an attempt by the White House to have the opportunity to skew the results in such a way as to guarantee a perpetual Democratic administration and Congress.

Whether or not that is true, there is another factor at work: the birthrate percentages in the various states of the United States. In his book, America Alone (subtitled The End of the World as We Know It) [See reference information below], Mark Steyn deals extensively with the issue of declining birthrates across the world. To maintain a stable population (no gain, no loss), there needs to be birthrates of 2.1 live births per woman. He wrote the book in 2006. At that time, the United States had 2.1 live births per woman. Other developed nations were lagging far behind the replacement rate. For example, Canada had 1.48, Europe as a whole had 1.38, Japan 1.32, and Russia 1.14. As Steyn says, "These countries are going out of business." (See page 10)

Birthrate, then, is an important factor to consider in many contexts. Getting back to the U. S. Census, Steyn notes that during the 2004 general election, the birthrates in traditionally blue (Democratic) states were 12% lower than the birthrates in traditionally red (Republican) states. If nothing changes, traditionally blue states may find themselves losing ground (and representatives) to traditionally red states. (See page 11)

If you cannot encourage your supporters to have more children, then what are the alternatives? The obvious one is to oversee the census and insure as much as possible that at the worst, the demographic balance does not change and at the best, that it can be pushed ever further in your favor. One way is to estimate the uncounted citizens (those not at home, those who are illegal aliens, etc.) in such a way that the balance does remain the same or even moves farther into the desired outcome.

Now that the responsibility for the census has returned to the Commerce department, there is still the need for vigilance as the results come in. The Secretary of Commerce, whatever else he is, is still an appointee of the administration. As the results of the census are reported, it will be important to note whether or not there are some results that may seem incongruous with the results that should have been expected.

This is not to say the administration is considering "fudging" the figures. It is to say that it is important that an objective, apolitical oversight be given to the whole process. We are still a democracy, although becoming more and more tinged with socialism, and anything that subverts the democratic process must be eliminated.

Sources:

strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/8199

Mark Steyn, America Alone (Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing, 2006)