The Obama Scenarios

Randall Hoven, writing for The American Thinker web site, offers three scenarios for how an Obama administration might turn out. He labels them the "good," the "bad," and the "ugly."

First, the "good." According to Hoven, this scenario says President-elect Obama "...will moderate himself once in power and govern like the reasonable fellow in his campaign ads." This scenario stems from the recognition that lurching too far to the left could cost Obama re-election. Sure, the administration will lean left, but it will stay much closer to the center than some may anticipate.

Next, the "bad." This scenario says President-elect Obama "...will so overdo it that the electorate will quickly rectify things starting in 2010, just like it did in 1994." This kind of goes with the first scenario, except that Obama ignores the Clinton lesson and lurches to the left anyway. Some elements of a "bad" administration, according to Hoven: Gays in the military; gay marriage; stem cell research; abortion; censorship (the fairness doctrine); mandatory national service; socialized health care; liberal court appointments; tax increases; more government spending; increased regulation; too much diplomacy; and a failure to enforce immigration laws. Of course, all of these are horrific possibilities for conservatives, but I doubt liberals would agree.

Finally, the "ugly." Under this scenario, Hoven says Obama "...will make no sudden moves. He will essentially enact The Bad scenario incrementally and by stealth. And every move will have a reasonable-sounding narrative, fully supported by the mass media, popular culture, the education industry and 'experts.' He will avoid the truly unpopular moves." This scenarios postulates that Obama will undertake a significantly left of center agenda, but will do so in a manner that makes it appear more moderate than it actually is. Hoven says, "A smart administration (and one run by Rahm Emanuel is smart) can get away with almost anything here."

It is this third, "ugly," scenario that Hoven is most fearful of. Personally, I think Obama is likely to undertake the first approach and govern as a moderate focused on securing a second term. Of course, Hoven is extremely pessimistic, concluding as follows: "Welcome to the end of the end of the era of big government. And say hello to our new friends Hugo, Raul, vladimir, Mahmoud and Muammar and good-bye to dead white males like Jefferson and Madison. It's about to get ugly."

But given that Democrats were unable to secure a filibuster-proof majority, I think the next four years will be more moderate than "ugly."