The Oscar Picks for the February 27, 2011 Academy Awards (And the Envelope, Please.....)

I have won an Oscar-predicting contest every year since 1970, but, I have to admit, I often "wheel" the winners, putting the 'sure things' down and running in the less-sure things.

I've won some weird things over the years: a year's supply of bread. A blue plastic television set. Fifty passes to the movie "The Family Plot" (Alfred Hitchcock's last film). A year's pass to the Dubinsky Brothers' Movie chain. Individual tickets to a variety of movie theaters. And a job as film critic for the Quad City Times, which I held for close to 15 years.

This year, the traveling trophy (yes, we have a traveling Oscar trophy for the person predicting ALL awards and getting the most correct) will go with us to Des Moines, Iowa, where the four of us will (once again) vote in an effort to claim the Title of "World's Most Perfect Prognosticator."

So, with that said, let's examine this year's field.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: "The King's Speech," "127 Hours," "Black Swan," "The Fighter," "Inception," "The Kids Are All Right," "The Social Network," "True Grit," "Winter's Bone." It's quite clear that "The King's Speech," which has the most nominations (12) is the Academy's favorite. It has all the "stuffy" things that the Academy always wants. My own personal pick? "Black Swan" or "The Fighter," but who cares what I think? [And, yes, I have seen all of the nominated films.]

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Natalie Portman, Annette Bening, Nicole Kidman, Jennifer Lawrence and Michelle Williams. Natalie Portman is a lock. Next best performance, (and I've seen them all) was Nicole Kidman's in "Rabbit Hole." Annette Bening has juice (as Warren Beatty's wife) but I'm hoping that that doesn't trump talent.

BEST ACTOR: James Franco, Jeff Bridges, Colin Firth, Javier Bardem, Jesse Eisenberg. Colin Firth will be part of the "sweep" that so often develops. He will win for "The King's Speech." I don't quite understand why Javier Bardem wasn't nominated in a category for Best Foreign Film, but I do think that Leonardo DeCaprio in "Inception" was robbed, as well as Robert Duvall in "Get Low," either one of which was as good or better than Javier Bardem's dying man who communes with the dead in "Blutiful,"

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Amy Adams, Melissa Leo, Helena Bonham Carter,Hailee Steinfeld and Jacki Weaver. The one category where I have not seen all the nominees. I did not see Ms. Weaver. My own pick from would be Melissa Leo. She did a great job in "Frozen River," has paid her dues in Hollywood, and has mounted a vigorous campaign to win the award. However, some say that the vigorous campaign is hurting her rather then helping her. I could easily live with the selection of Amy Adams, who was great in "The Fighter," but the part of the Queen in "The King's Speech" (Helena Bonham Carter) was not that rigorous. Many think that, if the 2 nominees from "The Fighter" cancel each other out, the young star of "True Grit, Hailee Steinfeld, will win. I hope not; she hasn't paid her dues. It would be akin to Tatum O'Neal's win for "Paper Moon" and look how much work she did after that.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale, Geoffrey Rush, Mark Ruffalo, Jeremy Renner, John Hawkes. Christian Bale deserves to win. His performance as Dicky Ecklund was amazing. He has, however, received some bad press of late, so, if an upset were to occur, it would be Geoffrey Rush joining the "sweep" of "The King's Speech," but I, personally, do not think so. My money is on Bale as one of the night's 2 most definite wins.

BEST DIRECTOR: Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech," David O. Russell for "The Fighter," David Fincher for "The Social Network," Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan," Joel & Ethan Coen for "True Grit." [Nobody can figure out why the director of "Inception," Christopher Nolan, didn't get nominated.] I'm expecting the "sweep" effect to carry Hooper over the finish line, but I'd rather see either Darren Aronofsky for "Black Swan" or David O. Russell for "The Fighter" win.

Why? In Aronofsky's case, he directed "The Wrestler" and I thought that Mickey Rourke film performance was brilliant, To go from that "down-and-dirty' film to this elegant ballet movie is amazing. Plus, his long-time "fiancée" and mother of their son (Rachel Weisz) ran off with Daniel Craig, so it's been a rough year for the versatile Aronofsky. I could also live with David O. Russell, because he directed "Flirting with Disaster" with Ben Stiller, one of the funniest movies ever made (Ben Stiller) and one of the most under-rated and under-viewed and a personal favorite.

After the above, you get into the categories that are crapshoots, with nobody usually even seeing all the nominated documentaries.I'll be looking into them in a different piece. In the meantime, if you want to see a truly hilarious older film, rent "Flirting with Disaster." (*Note: I have no personal connection with the film and will profit in no way...but you will.)