The Palin-Lieberman Bait & Switch

When the news broke that McCain had finally selected his running mate--a conservative, female Governor from Alaska--people on both sides of the bench were thinking the same thing: Obviously it's a gimmick, but it just might be McCain's key to the White House. After all, who better than a woman (any woman, really) to steal the hotly contested votes that Hillary Clinton halfheartedly bequeathed to Barack Obama at the DNC?

Then, over the next few days, as America got to know Sarah Palin (and the skeletons in her closet) better, the bipartisan consensus did a swift about face. The question on everyone's mind (if not their lips) became: What the hell was ol' John thinking? Surely with so much at stake his staff would have taken the time to properly vet Palin's background. Surely he was aware that her reactionary values wouldn't appeal to the mob of Clinton supporters he desperately needs to attract. Surely he could foresee the ease with which the outspoken Joe Biden would run circles around Palin when the topic of foreign policy comes up in the Vice Presidential debate. Could this simply have been an impulsive old timer's temporary lapse in judgment?

One convincing explanation has already emerged. It's well known that Karl Rove and the rest of George Bush's circle were pushing hard for Mitt Romney. It's also been said that McCain, in defiance of party leaders, had a burning desire to run with his bosom buddy Republocrat Joe Lieberman. But choosing Lieberman would have provoked open protest by party leaders at the RNC, and after the tremendous success of the DNC, McCain couldn't risk turning the Grand Old Party's big pageant into an ugly reminder that the post-Bush Republican party is bitterly divided. So, backed into a corner, McCain decided to prove his independence from Rove while dodging the threats of his colleagues with an impulsive, last minute decision. Voila, Palin!

But I'm not buying it. McCain may be old and he may be quick to draw on occasion, but he's no fool. It's my prediction (or conspiracy theory, if you prefer) that nominating Palin was merely step one of a two part plan for McCain to get what he really wants: Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut standing by his side.

The logic of my prediction is simple: McCain chose Palin, an ultra-conservative with heavy baggage, so that he could appease his party's furthest-right wing long enough get through the RNC, then have a convenient excuse to pull a switcheroo once the stakes are diminished.

Any day now, expect Palin to make a "heartfelt" announcement that, after a lot of soul searching, she has decided to withdraw her name from the Republican ticket so that she can attend to the special needs of her young child with Down's Syndrome and her pregnant seventeen year old. She is a family woman, after all. The religious right will be touched, and McCain will have an empty slot in his ticket to fill as he pleases.

A McCain / Lieberman ticket would be nothing less than a political masterstroke. Throughout this career, Lieberman has epitomized the term conservative Democrat. That's why Al Gore picked him (albeit shortsightedly) as a running mate in 2000, and that's why he has the best shot of attracting those slightly right-of-center Democrats who voted for Clinton in the primaries. Furthermore (and even more importantly), as the Senate's only bonafide "Independent," Joe Lieberman would be a lightning rod for the undecided swing voters upon whose whims presidential elections are decided in this country. McCain would easily win Florida with Lieberman at his side (see references), and he'd have a great chance of snatching up blue-leaning swing states like Pennsylvania, where lots of blue collar "Clinton Democrats" reside.

The major downside, from right wing perspective, is that Lieberman remains pro-choice in spite of his ideological alignment with the other major tenets of Neo-Conservatism, but you better believe that the religious right (already reenergized by the phantom prospect of Palin) will stand behind McCain all the way when faced with the "ungodly" (though, ironically, far more righteous) alternative of Barack Hussein Obama.

If I'm totally off base here and McCain's nomination is actually worth taking at face value, then that's great news for the Obama team (not to mention all the Americans hoping for a viable chance of progressive reform in Washington). But, frankly, I expect something a lot craftier from the party that won the presidency based on the five votes of their judicial representatives in the Supreme Court in 2000, invented the Kerry-crippling Swift Boat campaign of 2004 and continues to convince Americans that cutting taxes for the rich and waging perpetual wars somehow constitute a moral agenda.

I fear that the nomination of Sarah Louise Palin for Vice President just might be the nail in Barack Obama's coffin--not because I think the fiery conservative has a real shot at capturing the hearts and minds of America's undecided voters, but because I suspect that McCain / Palin is merely the gateway to something much more dangerous: a McCain / Lieberman ticket that will divide and conquer, prey on America's fear and prejudices, and quite likely succeed in renewing the neoconservative policies that have already brought our country to the brink of economic and cultural recession.