The Pew Poll About Obama's Polarized Early Job Approval Ratings, and the Trouble with Percentages

Partisan Gap in Obama Job Approval Widest in Modern Era

April 2, 2009

For all of his hopes about bipartisanship, Barack Obama has the most polarized early job approval ratings of any president in the past four decades. The 61-point partisan gap in opinions about Obama's job performance is the result of a combination of high Democratic ratings for the president -- 88% job approval among Democrats -- and relatively low approval ratings among Republicans (27%).

By comparison, there was a somewhat smaller 51-point partisan gap in views of George W. Bush's job performance in April 2001, a few months into his first term. At that time, Republican enthusiasm for Bush was comparable to how Democrats feel about Obama today, but there was substantially less criticism from members of the opposition party. Among Democrats, 36% approved of Bush's job performance in April 2001; that compares with a 27% job approval rating for Obama among Republicans today.

The growing partisan divide in presidential approval ratings is part of a long-term trend. Going back in time, partisanship was far less evident in the early job approval ratings for both Jimmy Carter and Richard Nixon. In fact, a majority of Republicans (56%) approved of Carter's job performance in late March 1977, and a majority of Democrats (55%) approved of Nixon's performance at a comparable point in his first term.

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This item has been picked up on by right-wing demagogues like Rush Limbaugh, but also by serious conservative columnists like Michael Gerson, whose

For example, we need to know the number of people of voting age who consider themselves Republicans, as a percentage of the total voting age population (TVAP). Let me give an example to illustrate my point

Suppose that, in 2001 the TVAP was 40% Rep., 20% Ind., and 40% Dem. Suppose further that since then, there has been a migration of Republicans to Independent status,(and there is reason to believe this), so that now the TVAP is 30% Rep. 30% Ind. and 40% Dem. Assume, for lack of anything better, that the 2009 approval rating of Republicans turned Independents is the same as all the Independents, 57%. Thus, since ¼ of 2001 Republicans are now Independents, the correct figure from 2009 to compare with 2001 is the weighted average of 27% and 57%, (¾)27% + (¼)57% = 34.5%. So the difference in the approval ratings, R+(R turned I) - D = 34.5 -88 = -53.5%, which is much closer, in absolute value, to the 2001 R - D = 51%.

The situation is even more stark if there has been migration from Independents to Democrats since 2001, which is probably also the case. We need all the relevant facts, and Pew hasn't supplied them. In order to meaningfully compare percentages from 2009 to any other year, we need to know how the TVAP breaks down into Dems, Reps, and Inds for each year.

Column , "The Most Polarizing President," is in the April 8^th Washington Post.

There are a few problems with the Pew Research Center statement. First of all, its conclusion ignores the approval rating by Independents, which is 57%. Second, and more importantly, all the results are stated in percentages, or differences in percentage points, with no mention of the underlying numbers.

The partisan gap in Bill Clinton's early days was also substantially smaller than what Obama faces, largely because Democrats were less enthusiastic about Clinton. In early April 1993, 71% of Democrats approved of Clinton's job performance, which is 17 points lower than Obama's current job approval among Democrats. Republican ratings of Clinton at that point (26%) are comparable to their current ratings of Obama today (27%).