The Probability of One Die Blocks in Blood Bowl

At the local gaming shop, we had a guy who seemed a bit crazy when he played. He didn't strategize all that much, and he relished in throwing whimsical one-die blocks.

Most everyone else - who had learned to play the game very conservatively - thought he was insane. Why would you do such a thing? They never considered that for his team (Norse), throwing a one die block isn't really that bad of an option.

They never stopped to think about the probability involved in rolling one block die (as opposed to gathering up assists and rolling two dice).

The Possible Outcomes on the Block Die

To understand the rest of this article, you'll need to know the possible outcomes on a block die. You could dig yours out of your gaming bag, or take my word for it:

There's a 1/6 chance of rolling a Skull ("Attacker Down"), a 1/6 chance of rolling a Skull-Pow ("Both Down"), a 2/6 chance of rolling a Push ("Pushed", the arrow appears twice on each die), a 1/6 chance of rolling a Dodge-Bamf ("Defender Stumbles"), and a 1/6 chance of rolling a Bamf ("Defender Down"). Note: The names in parentheses are the "official" names in the Living Rulebook, but I usually use the more common names (like "Bamf" and "Skull-Pow").

With this in mind, it's easy to consider a few scenarios and decide just how likely it is that a one-die block will be successful.

Norse Lineman vs Orc Lineman

Let's start with the example of our crazy old gamer. Everybody thought he was nuts for routinely throwing one die blocks with his Norse team.

Well, remember that everyone on the Norse team starts with Block. Let's say his Norse Lineman (with Block) blocks an Orc Lineman (no skills). What are the possible outcomes?

There's a 1/6 chance that the Norse Lineman will knock himself over (Skull). There's a 2/6 chance that he'll push the Orc back. There's a 3/6 chance that he'll knock the Orc over (Skull-Pow, Dodge-Bamf, or Bamf).

In other words, there's an 83.33% chance that the block will be successful (or at least not end in a turnover) and only a 16.67% chance that he'll knock himself over and cause a turnover. To put that into perspective, it's the same chance that an Elf has of falling on his face when he tries to dodge out for no reason. It's also the same chance that anyone has to fall over when going for it.

As usual, it's wise to do safer things (make moves without rolls and make rolls with extra dice/re-rolls) first. But there's a pretty reasonable chance that the Norse Lineman will not cause a turnover - especially if you have a Team Re-Roll left for the turn - so it's not really that bad of an idea.

Orc Lineman vs. Human Blitzer

Now, let's consider a different example. An Orc Lineman (no skills) is pondering a one-die block against a Human Blitzer (block).

The possible outcomes? 2/6 chance that the Orc knocks himself on his face (Skull, Skull-Pow), 2/6 chance that the Orc pushes the Blitzer back, and a 2/6 chance that the Orc knocks the Human Blitzer over (Dodge-Bamf, Bamf). Depending on your goal (sometimes a pushback is as good as a knockdown), you've got a one third chance of causing a turnover against a two-thirds chance of succeeding.

This isn't the best of all possible situations... but you've got a decent chance of knocking the guy over and a decent chance of not falling over. Risky? Yes. Stupid? Not always. Just make sure your safer moves are done first.

High Elf Lineman vs. Amazon Blitzer

Let's consider a third and final example. A puny High Elf Lineman (no skills) foolishly wants to try and take down an amazing Amazon Blitzer (block and dodge, oh yeah). What could happen?

There's a 2/6 chance that the Lineman falls over (Skull, Skull-Pow), there's a 3/6 chance that the Lineman pushes the Blitzer back (Push, Dodge-Bamf), and a 1/6 chance that the Blitzer is knocked over (Bamf). While there's still a reasonable chance that the Lineman will end his action standing up, he's only got a one in six chance of actually knocking the Blitzer over.

In this case, unless you really want to push the Blitzer to another square, it's probably not worth the block. The Lineman is more likely to knock himself over than to knock over the Blitzer.

Bottom Line - Compare Skills

The bottom is you should compare your skills and work out the odds before you write off the one-die block. If you have Block and the defender doesn't, you've got pretty goods odds of knocking the guy over and/or not falling over yourself. If, on the other hand, you don't have block and the defender does have dodge... you might want to look elsewhere.

One way or another, your odds at success are probably higher than you think and your odds at failure are probably lower than you think. Maybe that crazy Norse player wasn't so crazy after all.