The Spread Of Infectious Disease, Natural Selection at It's Finest

It often comes as a surprise to most that the spread of disease has actually been increasing over the recent decades. Within the last 30 years, 35 new infectious diseases have emerged in the world and every hour 1,500 people die as a result. Greg Bear addressed this issue in his novel Darwin's Radio, with the sudden spread of SHERVA, Scattered Human Endogenous Retro Virus Activation, commonly known as SHEVA. SHEVA was originally thought to be an infectious disease that was passed from males to females and ultimately caused miscarriages or stillborn children. Infectious diseases in this world are becoming more prominent than before as a direct result of 13 factors named by a panel of top U.S. researchers convened by the Institute of Medicine. These real factors are what Bear dubbed stress in his novel, and the reason for the erruption of SHEVA. SHEVA's true purpose though was to carry on the evolution of human beings by creating a new race of humanity with adaptations to cope with the increased stress of the modern world. The threat of evolutionary change that is the topic of Darwin's Radio exists in this world, and the emergence of these infectious diseases cannot be brushed off.

The 13 factors that most contribute to the rapid increase in infectious diseases are in actuality specific changes in the world and the way humans live, known to Bear as stress. They include human demographics and behavior, international travel and commerce, economic development and land use, and a lack of political will. Kaye Lang of Bear's fictional world claimed that it was these exact factors that were straining the human capacity. Modernization of the world has been an extremely rapid process, and humanity has had to cope with many changes within a relatively short amount of time. Lang spoke of how human networks worked on the idea that everyone was aware of and would react to their environment. If the environment were to change, as it is quickly doing now, she believed that there was no choice but for humans to react to that change. In this world, humans are undergoing the same changes, and experiencing new infectious diseases as a result. There is a certain point though, according to Lang, that humanity can no longer accept these factors and must change the balance of stress related chemicals in their bodies, thus resulting in evolution.

Evolution as a principle is generally thought to be a gradual change in a species, yet there exists a theory of punctuated evolution that states that a species will adapt within a few generations to changes in their environment. Bear's protagonists believed in the latter, claiming that SHEVA was actually a part of the human genome that was forcing humanity to adapt to the dramatic changes in the world. They faced skepticism from much of the scientific community, as punctuated evolution was not believed to be a sound theory. Similar to Bear's fictional world, punctuated evolution does not have many true believers among today's scientific experts. Yet, there is evidence that is exists in certain experiments. When fruit flies were exposed to extreme changes in their climate, they managed within just a few generations to make adaptations. The implications of this experiment are heavy, if fruit flies managed such rapid adaptations, the possibility of human adaptation cannot be ruled out completely. If punctuated evolution does indeed exist, then it could very well affect the human species, and the prospect of an infectious disease that is similar to Bear's SHEVA is not impossible.

Yet, it is not simply a biological matter, and the political world has had many problems as a result of this rapid growth in infectious diseases. Public health and politics often go hand in hand, as the government feels it must protect its position by sheltering the public from the full blow of the truth. This pattern is evident in Bear's fictional creation, as his government cared more about public opinion and control, rather than the actual protection of its people. His government abused their powers and went to extremes to quarantine those that were had SHEVA, rather than explaining the entirety of the virus to its people. These tactics seem hyperbolized when compared to the real world, yet, much of this occurs in nearly every nation. China became the epitome of this when they hid one of the largest outbreaks of a disease since influenza. Their refusal to admit to the existence of SARS greatly hindered their ability to contain and treat it. The majority of the world's population does not even know of the existence of most of the new infectious diseases until their sudden outbreak. Just as Bear's world had no idea how to deal with SHEVA, the world today is not prepared to handle such a supposed virus.

The world must stop ignoring the fact that the rapid changes and increase of infectious diseases in the world are connected. Humanity has reacted to the stress by succumbing to a greater number of diseases. Bear theorized that with such an increase in stress, evolution of the human genome was inevitable. His ideas do not seem so far fetched when put in relation to the recent discoveries in punctuated evolution. If indeed these turn out to be actuality, humanity could potentially face a complete reworking of their species. A retrovirus like Bear's SHEVA could result in evolutionary change, and the world must be prepared for such a potential threat.