The Strangest, Most Interesting -- and Most Profitable -- Super Bowl XVLI Prop Bets

Super Bowl Sunday has become a national holiday in the US, so it's no surprise that gambling -- another one of our national pastimes -- has become an integral part of the game. Some $90 million will be wagered in Las Vegas sportsbooks alone, with hundreds of millions more bet online, through "bookies", and in informal agreements in living rooms across the country. Some of the most interesting and most exotic bets are "proposition bets", which offer odds on everything from which player will be the MVP (Tom Brady is the favorite, at 7/5) to what color Madonna's hair will be during the halftime show (you'll get 2.5 times your money if she's not blonde) to how many times Brady's supermodel wife Gisele Bundchen will be shown on TV (paying -150 if she's shown at least once). These prop bets can keep your attention throughout the game -- even if you don't care who wins, or don't understand football. Below, I review some of the most outrageous, most fun -- and potentially most profitable -- prop bets for the game. (All odds and bets from bovada.lv.)

Pre-Game

Gamblers don't have to wait for the game to start. Former American Idol contestant Kelly Clarkson will sing the national anthem before the game, and there are prop bets on the length (over 1:34), her clothes (15:1 if she wears a Patriots or Giants jersey) and her stomach (+300 if she shows her midriff). The midriff bet seems a sure loser -- it's the National Anthem, for crying out loud -- but gamblers with a nasty streak can bet that Ms. Clarkson will omit at least one word of the song. That bet pays out 2.5 times the amount wagered, and all you need is a mistake from a pop singer in a Super Bowl. There is a precedent for that.

Many sites also allow betting on the outcome of the coin flip (suprisingly, Bovada does not as of right now). As ESPN's DJ Gallo noted, the NFC has won 14 consecutive coin flips in the Super Bowl. Coin flips are theoretically independent events, so using that information to, say, bet on the Giants to win the toss is known in mathematics as "The Gambler's Fallacy." Seems a perfect fit for us.

Halftime

There's only one possible way to tolerate watching Madonna perform in the Super Bowl halftime show (and, honestly, at what point will the NFL book someone under 40?) -- to gamble as much money as possible (in conjunction with copious amounts of alcohol, of course). You can bet on the color of her hair: blonde is -400 (meaning you would win $100 on a $400 bet); any other color pays 2.5x times the amount wagered. Given that Madonna is now 53, the "any other color" bet is just one poorly executed dye job from paying off. Gamblers can also bet on whether the aging pop star will use a headset or microphone (-300 for headset, +200 for handheld mike) and whether she will, at any point, wear an NFL jersey or shirt (again, 2.5x times the bet if she does).

The halftime show offers two solid bets. First, will the Material Girl wear fishnet stockings at any point? No pays -120 (wagering $120 to win $100), which seems a solid bet, given that a) the Janet Jackson incident has terrified the NFL to any sexual allusion of any kind (which explains why they've spent the past decade booking people three decades past their sexual prime) and b) again, she's 53 years old. I don't care what kind of yoga she does, 53-year-olds don't wear fishnet stockings in front of a billion viewers with high definition televisions. The other lock -- will Madonna wear a hat? It's -140 if she doesn't -- and when the heck does Madonna wear a hat?

TV Coverage

How many times will Peyton Manning -- quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts, and brother of Giants quarterback Eli -- be shown on television? The line is 3.5 (paying -110 on the under). Patriots owner Robert Kraft has the same line; Kraft lost his wife Myra earlier this season, and given the networks' insistence on promoting heart-breaking, sympathetic story lines instead of actually covering the football game, he seems a lock for at least three appearances. You can also bet on whether Tom Brady's son will be wearing a Tom Brady jersey (+150 if he's not, which seems a good bet -- can't you see the humble Brady putting his boy in a Wes Welker jersey on Sunday morning?).

Gamblers can also bet on the total American viewership, with the line currently at 117 million. Last year's game set a US TV record with 110 million viewers, but the presence of two of the nation's largest media markets is expected to break that record again this year. Still, the movement to online streaming -- and that line is 1.5 million people -- may lower the numbers. It's even money below 117 million.

The Actual, You Know, Game

Now it gets interesting. Gamblers are expecting a shootout, as the line for Eli Manning's passing yards is 315.5, while Brady's line is 320.5. Both lines pay -105 for the under (a slight discount to the normal -110) despite the fact that the two quarterbacks threw for 255 (Manning) and 266 (Brady) yards in the first meeting. (That game was played outdoors, as opposed to the dome this year -- but the first meeting was in Arizona, under nearly ideal weather conditions.)

Other smart QB-related bets: Eli throws an interception (-200); Eli throws exactly three touchdown passes (+350 against a weak Patriots defense); Brady throws under 2.5 touchdown passes (+110, and Brady didn't reach 3 TD's in either Super Bowl XLII or the regular-season meeting earlier this year); Brady throws exactly one touchdown pass (+400, and does that seem so unreasonable?)

Oddsmakers are also expecting the Giants pass rush -- which sacked Brady five times in the last Super Bowl -- to again have success. Defensive linemen Osi Umenyiora and Jason Pierre-Paul are both giving strong odds for a sack (-210 for Pierre-Paul, -200 for Umenyiora). Sacks are relatively rare, and the payouts for no sacks (+170 for Pierre-Paul, +160 for Umenyiora) are well above even money. This $10 flier will make the game interesting, even in a blowout, as Pats coach Bill Belichick is known for running up the score. Should the Pats have a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, it seems likely Brady will still be tossing the ball around.

Beyond that, gamblers have a wealth of opportunities. Who will score the first touchdown? Who will score the first Giants touchdown? (Tight end Jake Ballard is a good dark horse at 12 to 1.) Gamblers can bet on the performance of nearly every skill player on the roster. There are bets against the individual performances from Super Bowl XLII, and cross-sport bets (More Eli completions or LeBron points that day? Eli pays +120 if he comes out on top). The fun part of these types of bets is that they can keep your interest -- without a rooting interest. Sure, the Patriots are up 28 in the third quarter, and you bet the Giants -- but Wes Welker needs three more yards to pay off your prop bet!

The Celebration

As one of the teams is celebrating (and hopefully, we are too), the wagering isn't over. Think Tom Coughlin will get the Red Gatorade bath after the game? It pays 11 to 2. (Clear/water is the clubhouse favorite at 2:1). And who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first? God pays 4 to 1, with teammates the odds-on favorite at 8:5.

You can even bet that coaches Bill Belichick or Tom Coughlin will retire after the game. Belichick seems unlikely, but Coughlin -- a dour, older man who has been on the hot seat in New York seemingly his entire career -- seems just the type to walk off into the sunset after his second Super Bowl win. It's 10 times your money if one of the coaches never come back. It's unlikely -- but more likely than gamblers not returning for the same crazy bets next year.