The Summer of 2010 Does Not Belong to the Knicks

The summer of 2010 may yield the most anxiously awaited free agent period in NBA history. In addition to the possibility of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, and Chris Bosh opting out of there contracts and becoming available, some of the other big names who may be looking for new homes are Amare Stoudamire, Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, Manu Ginobili, Josh Howard, Michael Redd, Steve Nash, Tracey MacGrady, Richard Hamilton, Mehmet Okur, Carlos Boozer, and Chris Paul. Now, of course, this list is dependent upon when different players opt out of their contracts, though I think it's pretty safe to say that few top-tier players will opt out in 2009, knowing full well that most GM's will be waiting to see what happens with LeBron in 2010 before signing any long-term big money contracts with anyone else.

Recently, I wrote a column called Elton Brand: the Knick that Should Have Been. It was a piece about how the Knicks should have pursued Brand in a sign-and-trade deal with the Clippers for Zach Randolph. While the argument was a sound one, some of the reader feedback has been that the Knicks will not take on any contracts that go beyond the year 2010 until LeBron James' future has been determined.

Though I agree that the Knicks will probably not take on any big contracts until after the future of LeBron James has been determined, I must say that to a certain degree I disagree with Knicks president Donnie Walsh on this philosophy. 2010 is a long ways away and the Knick fans who have endured Isiah Thomas' reign of terror deserve to be rewarded should the opportunity arise. As long as the Knicks continue to live for the "Summer of LeBron," basketball after 2010 will be disappointing in New York.

First of all, provided that Jarred Jeffries and Eddy Curry realize that their current contracts are worth more than they could get on the open market and choose not to opt out of them, the Knicks are currently set have $45,573,596 on the books for 2010-2011 with only four players on their team. Although there is no way to know what the salary cap will be yet that season, knowing that the 2008-2009 cap has been set at $58.68 million dollars, a safe estimate for the 2010-2011 cap would be around $64 million. This would give the Knicks less than $19 million to sign James and seven other players to fill out their bench. James will probably not settle for less than a maximum contract and there are no exceptions in the current NBA salary cap rules that would allow the Knicks to sign James to a maximum deal that would put them well over the cap.

Because James has called New York his favorite city and Madison Square Garden his favorite place to play, some fans and executives may be under the delusion that he would be willing to sign for less to play for the Knicks. This argument in itself is ridiculous considering the current state of the franchise, but if there is to be a chance for this to happen, the Knicks would have to be able to show James that he would be surrounded with talent. Taking on a contract that went beyond 2010 for a high quality player, such as Elton Brand, would make sense if they were unloading the contract of a player like Zach Randolph or Eddy Curry in the process.

Next, Knick fans need to realize that LeBron may come to New York in 2010, but if he does it will be to play for the Brooklyn Nets. In the most recent interview where James expressed his love for New York, he also said that his favorite borough is Brooklyn. Team that up with his friendship with rapper Jay-Z, part owner of the Nets, and it all signs point towards James signing with the team who recently unloaded Richard Jefferson's contract. If the Nets can find a suitor for Vince Carter, that will leave them with only $2.8 on the books for 2010-2011.

Advantage Cleveland Cavaliers. If the Nets have only $2.8 million on the books, it means that James will not be surrounded with talent. The Cavs, on the other hand, will hold his Larry Bird rights and may be able to manipulate salary cap exceptions to sign James to a maximum deal and surround him with talent. Aside from James' contract, should he choose not to opt out in 2010, the Cavs have currently have nothing on the books for 2010-2011. Should Danny Ferry be able to convince Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao not to opt out of their contracts early, he could use the Cavs' open cap space to sign a marquee free agent such as Dwayne Wade or Chris Bosh (in which case the front court would have to be rearranged). The Cavs could use the rest of their cap space for role players, use the Larry Bird exception to resign James, Ilgauskas, and Varejao, and use the mid-level exception to sign a second-tier free agent or a top-level player who would love to play for this powerful roster. Making such risky high-dollar moves during one off-season may seem dangerous for a small-market team such as Cleveland, but if it worked out, their revenues would be phenomenal. If it didn't, I'm sure the Cavs could find suitors for some of the top-tier players that they'd have on their roster.

So even if James may not come to the Knicks in 2010, with the free agent class that may be available that summer, the Knicks should still try to clear cap space, right? Yes they should, but it shouldn't be their sole mission. Consider this. There are two players in the NBA currently who are bona fide "put the game on my shoulders" stars: LeBron James and Kobe Bryant (some people may argue that Dwayne Wade falls into this category, but seeing as how we have yet to see how his injury will truly affect his career, he doesn't belong in this category right now). Knowing that neither James nor Bryant will be made reasonably available to the Knicks in 2010, there is no reason for that summer to be the Knicks' sole focus.

The list of players who "may" be available in the summer of 2010 is contingent upon everyone opting out of their contracts or not opting out so as to make this happen. The odds of that happening are few and far between. Granted there could be several great players on the open market that summer, but aside from James, signing any of them would be no more valuable than acquiring a player such as Brand, Kevin Garnett, or Dwight Howard should any of them become available. Sure, right now that seems impossible, but last week no one thought that the Defensive Player of the Year would be available for a conditional draft pick. Remember, this is the NBA.

Face it Knick fans. You have no shot at landing LeBron James in 2010. Besides the fact that your team doesn't have what it takes to draw a bona fide super star who wants to win a championship, the numbers don't work out anyhow. The sooner your team president realizes this, you might have a shot at rebuilding.