The Threat of Global Warming

Here it comes! Global warming is going to kill us all! Rising sea levels sinking major port cities, massive crop failure, El Nino times ten, hurricanes, holes in the ozone layer, mass extinction! The world will hurtle into a furnace if SUVs are not wiped out and replaced with Prius's. Or will it? The truth is, the threat of global warming has been grossly exaggerated in recent years.

The general belief of most people is that global warming is a very real, imminent threat to our economy, homes, and way of life. People have been told that sea levels are rising and that if something is not done now, then the world is in grave danger. Actors, politicians, and even scientists have spoken up about global warming and it's dangers. That is the way the public sees it.

There are people who say, like Roger L. DiSilvestro, that, "Meteorological data indicates that the earth is warming..." and that the greenhouse effect will raise temperatures around the world about eight degrees Fahrenheit in fifty years (DiSilvestro 19). These advocates of global warming blame all or most of these problems on the actions of humans over the past two hundred years. Is that really the case?

The earth and its atmosphere are very complex. A delicate balance is constantly being attacked on all sides by millions of variables that the atmosphere consists of. Temperature, humidity, and the gases within the atmosphere are constantly changing and fluctuating. So yes, the temperature has been rising for the past two hundred years or so ("Prepare for the Big Chill" 2). The real question about global warming, the one all of the scientists are debating, is this: are recent temperature changes the result of human activities or are they simply part of the natural fluctuations within the earth's ever changing atmosphere ("Prepare for the Big Chill" 2)?

Much hype has been created over the global warming issue. Many who say that it is unnatural and a byproduct of human industrialization are building on that hype in order to profit. As shown in the article "Prepare for the Big Chill", if politicians really believed that global warming was the result of human activities, then why not pass laws banning large engines in cars and imposing stricter speed limits? Automobiles are, after all, the principal emitters of CO₂ in the world ("Prepare for the Big Chill" 4). No, the most likely reason for global warming is the natural cycles of the earth's atmosphere. Recent warming is most likely due to the fact that the earth just came out of a "Little Ice Age" around the 1600s ("Prepare for the Big Chill" 2).

The media has been used extensively to advocate the global warming fright, so much so that it can and has caused bias to creep in and a certain amount of fudging of the numbers in scientific studies. For example, climatologist Michael Mann and a team of scientists decided to research and publish a paper on the temperature for the past thousand years. When charted, the results showed a sharp spike in recent temperatures. Critics soon pointed out that the graph was flawed, apparently ignoring the "Medieval warm period" and the "Little Ice Age." Canadian researchers repeated Mann's study and soon came across many unmistakable errors. Apparently Mann's team filled in missing gaps in 19 series of temperature records and "all 28 tree ring studies had calculation errors." Mann's team failed to report the alterations (Chrichton 1-2).

Mann's report was not the only bit of disinformation floating about. The IPCC, or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is a committee started by the United Nations to study climate change. In 1995 they released an assessment report. After the team of scientists that were commissioned to research the report had submitted it for publishing, several edits were made to the manuscript. While most edits were general spelling and grammar checks, a large portion of the revisions had in fact changed the tone of the whole report. For example: "Viewed as a whole, these results indicate that observed global warming over the past 100 years is larger than our current best estimates of natural climate variations over the last 600 years," has been changed to: "Viewed as a whole, these results indicate that the observed trend in global mean temperatures over the past 100 years is unlikely to be entirely natural in origin" ("Changes to Chapter 8" 1). Slight change in tone, no?

For these reasons and many others, scientists have been unable to use paleoclimate data in order to reconstruct a satisfactory, spatially-comprehensive picture of climate variability over even the past 1,000 years. Nevertheless, the process of quality-controlling paleoclimatic data, integrating information from different proxies, and improving spatial coverage should be encouraged. Without a better paleoclimatic data base for at least the past millennium, it will be difficult to rule out natural variability as an explanation for recent observed changes, or to validate coupled model noise estimates on century time scales ("Changes to Chapter 8" 2).

Was also changed to:

Initial attempts are now being made to reconstruct a satisfactory, spatially-comprehensive picture of climate variability over even the past 1,000 years. The process of quality-controlling paleoclimatic data, integrating information from different proxies, and improving spatial coverage should be encouraged. Better paleoclimatic data base for at least the past millennium are essential to rule out natural variability as an explanation for recent observed changes, and validate coupled model noise estimates on century time scales ("Changes to Chapter 8" 2).

The changes go on and on for most of the report. The changes to chapter 8 were, however, the most relevant due to the fact that that chapter dealt with the global warming issue directly ("Changes to Chapter 8" 1-2).

There have been many laws dealing with global warming, namely the Kyoto Protocol. Designed to lower carbon emissions, the US refused to sign it. Both the Bush and the Clinton administration have refused to sign any piece of environmental legislation that would damage the economy. The US Department of Energy found that if the US signed the treaty it would "increase energy prices dramatically and throw as many as 3 million people out of work" ("The Relief Report" 2). The Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change was a resolution adopted by climatologists in Germany in 1995. It denounced the Kyoto Treaty as, "...dangerously simplistic, quite ineffective, and economically destructive to jobs and standards of living." It goes on to say that, "...we consider the drastic emission control policies for the Kyoto conference - lacking credible support for the underlying science - to be ill-advised and premature" ("The Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change" 1).

A major hindrance in, and the real cause of, thee debate over global warming, is the lack of certainty in many aspects of climatology. James E. Hanson's report on "Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era" pounded home the fact that little is understood about the subject:

Climate forcing by ozone is uncertain because ozone change as a function of altitude is not well measured... Surface ozone over Europe increased by a factor of five in the past century, but measurements cover a small area and calibration of early data is uncertain... The anthropogenic compound of atmospheric aerosols is poorly known... The global distribution of aerosols is not well known..." (Hansen 12754-12756).

He continues to talk of uncertain and imprecise measurement technology and how little is understood about the various greenhouse gases, aerosols, solar radiation, and other factors. Things like cloud cover and certain other natural causes like volcanic aerosols from eruptions also bring in levels of variability in measuring climate forcing, thus an accurate prediction is impossible: "The forcings that drive long term climate change are not well known with accurate sufficiency to define future climate change" (Hansen 12753).

Greenhouse gases are an especially large topic in the realm of global warming. Climate forcings of the common greenhouse gases like CO₂, CH₄, N₂0, and CFCs can be measured rather accurately. These gases are understood and their effects can be measured accurately. Overall they contribute about 2.3 W/m² of climate forcing (the measure of forced climate change) since the Industrial Age (Hansen 12753). Ozone is a greenhouse gas that tends to offset some of the positive forcing (warming) and has a large influence on climate and temperature. Aerosols are also counted in the positive forcing category. Aerosols are particles that tend to absorb solar radiation and produce a negative forcing, or a cooling effect. Once again, the absorption rates are not clearly understood, thus an accurate level of forcing cannot be found. However, back to carbon dioxide, changes in CO₂ levels over the past five hundred years are only just linked to the temperature. In fact, if CO₂ levels from before Industrial times were doubled, that would only equal out to perhaps a .75 degree Centigrade warming rather than the reported 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Centigrade. CO₂ increases are actually expected to cool the stratosphere. This cooling will eventually have the same cooling effect on the surface ("Global Warming" 7-8).

Many believe that the planet is losing valuable ecosystems and natural formations due to the global warming phenomenon. Take, for example, the glaciers of Kilimanjaro. While they are, in fact, melting slightly, it is not due to global warming. According to Kaser, "A drastic drop in atmospheric moisture at the end of the 19^th century and the ensuing drier climate conditions are likely forcing the retreat on Kilimanjaro" (Kaser 329). The glaciers started melting in the late 1800s, well before human industrialization could have altered the temperature in Africa. While the glaciers of Kilimanjaro may be melting slightly, studies show that the Antarctic ice sheets are, "...expanding by some 26.8 billion tons of ice a year". The temperatures in Antarctica have also been found to have decreased from 1986 to 1999 by about 0.7 degrees ("The Relief Report" 1-2).

Extreme weather is a topic of considerable interest to all people. Nobody wants to go through a hurricane or a tsunami, or even worse something like El Nino. Global warmers say that one should expect a rise in these devastating occurrences. Apparently the exact opposite is happening, and extreme weather is going down in recent years. The anticipated global cooling is expected to decrease the number of storms and extreme weather ("The Relief Report" 1).

Despite all of these threats of destruction there may actually be benefits to the warming that is occurring. Ice melting in the north might open up a Northwest Passage, cutting about 5000 miles off of the usual route from Europe to Asia. An increase in temperature and carbon dioxide would mean stronger plant growth and "more net biomass" ("Global Warming" 11). The IPCC says that a 3.5 degree increase in global temperatures would, "...increase agricultural output in the Soviet Union by 40 percent and in China by twenty percent" (Easterbrook 36).

In conclusion, global warming is a debate not over rising temperatures or CO₂ levels. It is primarily a debate over whether or not human beings have anything to do with it. Current research points out that the earth is unstable and goes through cycles of warming and cooling quite regularly, and that humans have exceedingly little to do with it. In fact, the heating might be ending fairly soon. Research has show that, "For the last two million years, but not before, the Northern Hemisphere has gone through a regular cycle of ice ages: 90,000 years with ice, 10,000 years without. The last one ended 10,000 years ago. The next ice age is due" ("Prepare for the Big Chill" 2).

Works Cited

"Changes to Chapter 8." 3/22/2006 http://www.sepp.org/ipccont/Item03.htm

Chrichton, Micheal. "Science Policy in the 21^st Century." 3/7/2006 http://www.chrichton-official.com

DiSilvestro, Roger L. "There Is an Environmental Crisis." The Environmental Crisis: Opposing Viewpoints. David L. Beader, Brunno Leave, and Neal Bernando. San Diego: Greenhouse Press, 1991.

Easterbrook, Gregg. "The Environment is Improving." The Environmental Crisis: Opposing Viewpoints. David L. Beader, Brunno Leave, and Neal Bernando. San Diego: Greenhouse Press, 1991.

"Global Warming." Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia Online. 3/7/2006 http://en.wikipedia.org

Hansen, James E., et al. "Climate Forcing in the Industrial era." Proceedings of the NationalAcademy of Sciences 95 (October 1998): 12753-12758.

Kaser, George, et al. "Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate Change: Observations and Facts." International Journal of Climatology 24 (2004): 329-339 http://www.interscience.wikey.com

"Prepare for the Big Chill." EnviroTruth.org. The National Center for Public Policy Research, Washington D.C., United States of America. 3/22/2006 http://www.envirotruth.org/big_chill.cfm

"The Leipzig Declaration on Global Climate Change." 3/22/2006 http://www.sepp.org/leipzig.html

"The Relief Report." The NationalCenter for Public Policy Research. David A. Ridenour, ed. January 31, 2002. The National Center for Public Policy Research, Washington D.C., United States of America. 3/22/2006 http://www/nationalcenter.org/RR103.html