The United States' Response to the Russia/Georgia War

The Associated Press reported on Monday that President Bush had strongly condemned the Russian attack upon Georgia. Having condemned it, though, he must now decide what to do about it. The United States has a range of options, ranging from diplomatic to military, some more practical than others.

The diplomatic option

President Bush could dispatch Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice to Moscow, or go there himself, to engage in high-level negotiations with the Russians. Presumably, the objective would be to get Russia to agree to the agreement that Georgia has already signed, which calls for "an immediate cease-fire, the withdrawal of forces from the zone of conflict, a return to the military status quo as of Aug. 6 and a commitment to refrain from the use of force," and which Bush referred to in his statement.

However, diplomacy involves compromise on both sides, and there appears to be nothing in the agreement which Russia might see as benefiting itself. In fact, Russia might see greater benefit in continuing its operations against Georgia. According to The Independent, Georgia contains a long oil pipeline and thus provides a way for European countries to be less dependent upon energy supplies from Russia. If Russia occupies Georgia, Europe will be forced to continue receiving its oil and gas via Russia, which may make European countries less willing to oppose Russian policies.

The military option

If diplomacy fails, the United States may consider deploying military forces either in direct support of Georgia, or in some sort of peacekeeper role. Two factors argue against this. The first is time. Currently, FOX News reports that Russian forces are already inside central and western Georgia, although reports conflict as to how far they have advanced. One can assume that it will not take long for the Russians to defeat Georgia, and even to occupy the country, should they choose to do so. Therefore, if the United States is to deploy troops, it will have to do so within a very short amount of time.

But this option appears unlikely. The United States is already engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan, efforts which have been fraught with political controversy, both domestically and internationally. Besides which, the United States still has forces deployed in Japan, Germany, South Korea, the Balkans, and the Philippines, according to GlobalSecurity.org. Finally, the political debate in the United States has recently focused more on possible action against Iran rather than against Russia. Therefore, it does not seem possible that President Bush will deploy American troops to Georgia, given the commitment of US forces elsewhere and the political opposition such a move would undoubtedly create.

In the end, the most likely course of events is that Russia will, more or less, get its way. Russia might not go so far as to occupy Georgia, but it will probably demand and receive the Georgian relinquishment of the region of South Ossetia. The most the Georgians can hope for is that Russia might agree to allow international peacekeepers to be stationed in the area. What long-term effects this might have on other former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Belarus remains to be seen.

Sources:

Jennifer Loven, Bush Denounces Russian Violence in Georgia, The Associated Press
Claire Soares, The Battle for Oil: EU's hope to avoid Russian gas may be a pipe dream, The Independent
U.S. Security Council to Take Up Georgia-Russia Crisis in Emergency Session, FOX News.
Army Global Commitments, GlobalSecurity.org