The US Open Women's Report: Who Will Be the Losing Finalist to Serena? (Pt 1)

There are the top 8 seeds in this year's US Open... and Serena Williams. That pretty much sums up this year's US Open for the women.

Presumably, after the potential third round match between Serena and Victoria Azarenka there will be 7 top seeds left...and Serena Williams. I don't want to put too fine a point on this, but this year's US Open title is Serena's to win or lose. Period. There are some fine players out there, but no one close to the level that Serena has exhibited during the US Open Series.

Let's look at this question from another point of view: who is going to be the losing finalist to Serena at this year's US Open? We can get some clues from the top 8 seeds and how they are paired in potential quarterfinal matches. If all seedings hold true, the quarters will look like this:

Caroline Wozniacki (1) / Li Na (6)

Victoria Azarenka (4) / Francesca Schiavone (7)

Maria Sharapova (3) / Petra Kvitova (5)

Vera Zvonareva (2) / Marion Bartoli (8)

As with the men's quarterfinal pairings, these will need some adjustments. The biggest adjustment will be Serena Williams (28) taking over Victoria Azarenka's place in the second quarter quarterfinal spot. Grunting aside, Victoria is a fine player. And maybe at any other time where the seeds reflected a player's true abilities, she would have a clear road to the quarters. The US Open seeding committee had other ideas. Instead of adjusting the seeds to reflect the reality of Serena's presence back on tour AND the reality of her two titles during the US Open Series, they opted to remain true to the WTA rankings. The only adjusted they made was in response to Kim Clijsters withdrawal from the tournament due to her stomach muscle injury. Her absence moves everyone up a spot from their rank.

In regards to Serena's seeding here is what the committee had to say: "After careful deliberation regarding Serena Williams' seeding, we decided to maintain the objective criteria in place to determine the women's singles seeds at this year's US Open," said Jim Curley, US Open Tournament Director and Chief Professional Tournaments Officer, USTA. Well Jim, you got your "objective" wish and Serena will now be knocking out your number 4 seed in the third round!

On the other side of that quarter sits Francesca Schiavone. Though I LOVE Franky, she has not played well this hardcourt season. She's struggled on serve, and the pace of shot is too quick for her to be on top of her game and shots right now. Jelena Jankovic (11) is starting to peak at just the right time, and has been to the finals of the Open before. She has struggled mightily the past couple of years, but seems to be getting back on track at just the right time. Jelena yes, Franky no.

The next adjustment could come in replacing Li Na (6) with Andrea Petkovic (10). Andrea is 10-3 over the US Open Series, including 2 wins over Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova. Li Na is 4-3, including a loss to Petra Cetkovska where she committed over 50 unforced errors. She just hasn't found her groove this summer hardcourt season, while Andrea has been completely locked into hers. So let's make it official and say that Andrea will advance to the quarters in the bottom of the top quarter.

Petra Kvitova (5) is not playing particularly well these days. After winning Wimbledon, she had to make a big adjustment to the media and time demands of a grand slam champion. She still hasn't quite found her footing on the hardcourts yet, but there is no one who should challenge her in this quarter. One special note about this quarter: Ursula and Agnieszka Radwanska (12) easily qualify for the worst US Open draw EVER! The sisters play each other in the first round. Out of 128 players, they get each other. Aggie is a dark horse for the title, so Ursula's tournament is unfortunately going to end on the first day. Bad luck for both.

The final quarter has a bit of intrigue as well. Not sure if an adjustment is warranted, but intrigue nonetheless. Sam Stosur (9) is in the bottom part of the quarter with Marion Bartoli (8). Sam is 8-3 over the course of the US Open Series. Marion is 6-4. There head-to-head is 2-2. At the very least, on paper it looks like a toss-up with Sam having a slight edge. But Sam gets a little fragile in the bigger events. Marion gets a little tougher, and her slam results bear that out this year. In the end, my gut tells me I stick with Marion. Sorry Sam.

The redrawn quarterfinals look like this:

Caroline Wozniacki (1) / Andrea Petkovic (10)

Serena Williams (28) / Jelena Jankovic (11)

Maria Sharapova (3) / Petra Kvitova (5)

Vera Zvonareva (2) / Marion Bartoli (8)

The results:

Caroline / Andrea: Caroline in 3 sets. She is coming off of a good win in New Haven, and is determined to prove her critics (of which there are many) wrong. Andrea has a knack for long matches, which will catch up to her by this stage in the tournament.

Serena / Jelena: Serena in 2 sets. This is a rematch of the 2008 US Open final. Serena is just as good now as she was then, Jelena not so much. Defense will not help her in this one.

Maria / Petra: Maria in 2 sets. This is a rematch of this year's Wimbledon final. Maria is generally playing better tennis these days. Petra is struggling to have the same kind of attack and success that she had at Wimbledon. It won't happen here.

Vera / Marion: Vera in 2 sets. I'm not sure what it is about Vera's game that derails Marion, but the numbers don't lie. 9 wins for Vera versus 2 losses. That is a pretty lopsided win-loss ratio. Maybe 10-2 after this quarter?

Dark Horses

Agnieszka Radwanska (12): Great defense and great strokes. Also won a title during the US Open Series. But can (and will) be beat with consistent pace.

Sabine Lisicki (22): She is rewarded greatly on grass for her tremendous serve (much like Venus), and was able to make it to the Wimbledon semis. She is less rewarded on the US Open deco-turf courts, and doesn't quite have the consistency to battle the best. She won the inaugural Texas Open over Aravane Rezai... a result that honestly will have no bearings on her chances at the Open against any of the top 10.

Special Mentions

I would be remiss if I didn't add a special mention for Venus Williams and Svetlana Kuznetsova (15). Not a mention that she will threaten to take a title that she hasn't won in over a decade... a mention that she could be out of the tournament after the first round. She is coming into this US Open having played no matches since her loss to Tsvetana Pironkova at Wimbledon, and has also been suffering from a viral infection. She is 31, physically fragile (think back to her Australian Open injury on a swinging volley), and more unsure tactically than we have ever seen. She plays Vesna Dolonts from Russia in the first round. If, and that is a big "if", she gets past Dolonts she will most assuredly be knocked out by Sabine Lisicki in the second round.

Watching Venus these days is a lot like watching Roddick, minus the temper tantrums. She was such a great champion in her prime, but now seems to lack the speed, accuracy, and conviction needed to win or close out her matches. How much longer will she allow herself to be "less than"? Svetlana Kuznetsova isn't quite on the same trajectory as Venus. But on any given day you have no idea which Sveta will show up: the 2-time grand slam champion or the woman who can't seem to keep the ball in play.

Back to the question at hand... Who will win this year's title for the women? Stay tuned for the semi-final/finals breakdown.