The World Waits..Conflict Or Dialogue with Iran?

As the U.S gets bogged down in what seems a never ending low intensity conflict in Iraq, the eyes of western leaders turn to newer and larger threats. Last week as the voting was coming to a close at the U.N over Iran's nuclear ambitions, a group of 15 sailors from the British Royal Navy were captured by Iranian forces along the coasts of Iran and Iraq. While this is not the first time such an incident has occurred, tensions this time around are very high.

In the past few months the U.S has tried to make the case that Iran in addition to pursuing a weaponized nuclear program, is intentionally destabilizing Iraq by supporting Shiite militias and direct attacks against U.S forces. As this information was being publicly released by the Bush administration, the U.S Military captured what it claimed to be Iranian agents operating under the cover of diplomatic missions. Perhaps the Iranian government is looking to use the 15 British sailors to get back its own people currently being held. This calculation however, may backfire dangerously for Iran, and threaten to be exactly the type of incident those looking for conflict need to justify an attack.

Lobbyists, and officials who seek a military strike against Iran in order to cause some kind of regime change, destroy its nuclear capacity, or both, need to find compelling reasons why Iran can not be negotiated with through diplomacy. By seizing those sailors in what is obviously a petty dispute over territorial waters and ship positions, Iran appears even more foolhardy, reckless, and aggressive than it already has. It presents itself as the very ignorant, irrational, and dangerous country many claim it to be.

Those who study history, those who can see past the rhetoric and media caricatures can understand that Iran is a very complex nation, with a multitude of opinions, however suppressed they may be. There are many indications that within Iran not all agree with the belligerent politics of president Ahmadinejad . In fact there is internal division even within clerics who ultimately rule the country. While most would be adamantly against any reversal of revolutionary policies, or an increase in personal freedom for Iranians, there are many who seek at least détente with the U.S and perhaps a constructive dialogue towards a normalization of relations. They know that in the end a war with the U.S would be very destructive to the country, and that at best their only effective response would be to unleash small scale attacks against U.S interests in Iraq, and a cutting off the oil flow to the west. Both of those options would do nothing to alleviate the suffering of the people caught in the middle of any conflict.

If the U.S, Britain, and the rest of the major world powers can appeal to moderate elements in the Iranian government then there may be a chance to not only avoid war, but to subvert the radical elements within Iran which we claim to oppose. This task will not be easy, especially due to the situation with the captured sailors, and the nuclear issue. What is painfully clear is that simplistic, black and white statements or demands by either side will only bring us closer to a fight in which no one wins.

The world economy may not be able to afford another large conflict in the middle east, already as a result of this incident oil prices are rising again. If a full scale military strike is carries out the result could be very chaotic, and very unpredictable. The people of the world wait with fearful anticipation to see if the leaders of two countries can yet see reason, if cooler heads can indeed prevail.