Things I Think I Know About the 2007 New York Mets

In Wednesday's New York Post, Joel Sherman had an interesting column done in by poor execution. His story was subtitled "JOEL SHERMAN'S 5 ITEMS HE IS ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY, ALMOST NEARLY CERTAIN ABOUT THE METS". Now, I know a good idea when I steal one, so I'm going to put my own spin on Sherman's article and offer five (better) thoughts on the Mets.

1. The back end of the rotation will not be a problem. I predict that John Maine, Oliver Perez and Mike Pelfrey will combine for over 500 innings pitched and 40 wins. I am already on record for my belief in these three pitchers. I believe Maine will do a better job of keeping the ball in the park. I think Perez will make great strides with his control, leading to an all-star caliber year. And I hope that Pelfrey will remain healthy and let his natural talent shine.

In 2006, the Mets broke camp with Steve Trachsel, Victor Zambrano and Brian Bannister as their 3-4-5 starters. For the season, they combined for 223 innings and 19 wins. Both Zambrano and Bannister got hurt early in the year, leading to the revolving door that saw 13 different pitchers make starts for the 97-win club.

2. No pitcher as bad as Jose Lima will start a game in 2007. Last year, the Mets gave away 15 games by starting Alay Soler (8), Jose Lima (4) and Geremi Gonzalez (3). That trio combined to allow 61 earned runs in 76.1 innings. This year the club should have much better options for injury replacements. Chan Ho Park and Aaron Sele figure to be in the bullpen and ready for emergency starts, while Jason Vargas and Phil Humber offer reasonable alternatives at Triple-A.

3. The team will not duplicate last year's one-run record. The Mets posted a phenomenal 31-16 record in one-run games in 2006. Now, conventional wisdom says that good teams know how to win the close games. But the reality is that a team's one-run record is mostly the result of luck. And one way teams are able to help their record in these situations is with a strong bullpen. Because of injuries, free agent defections and suspensions, the Mets do not figure to repeat the excellent performance from their relievers this season.

4. Carlos Delgado will enjoy a better season than his first one in Flushing. After many years of sub-par performance from their first basemen, Carlos Delgado gave the Mets a .909 OPS and drove in 114 runs in 2006. But his OPS dropped 80 points from the previous season and his .265 average was his lowest mark since 1997. Some might be concerned that 2006 marked the beginning of the end for Delgado, who turned 34 during the season.

So, why am I optimistic about a rebound season? Well, Delgado had a sub-par year with his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP). This stat is figured by (H-HR) divided by (AB-K-HR). By eliminating home runs and strikeouts, we find out what a batter hit when a fielder had a chance to make a play. Last year, Delgado had a .276 BABIP, the lowest mark for any full-time first baseman in the Majors. Most players post around a .300 BABIP. The most likely explanation for Delgado's poor mark is that last season was a fluke.

5. Paul Lo Duca will be dropped from the second spot in the lineup. Paul Lo Duca was an all-star in his first season with the Mets, batting .318, the second highest mark of his nine-year career in the Majors. Lo Duca benefited from batting second, behind speedster Jose Reyes. But despite the high batting average, Lo Duca drove in just 49 runs, a surprisingly low number given that Reyes himself got on base 229 times (not counting reached on errors or fielder's choice).

The Mets need more production out of the second slot in their lineup and David Wright is likely to see more time there. The acquisition of Moises Alou gives the Mets a power righty bat, freeing Wright to move up in the order. Last year, Lo Duca batted second 500 times and Wright did not log a plate appearance there. In a perfect world, Lo Duca would not bat higher than seventh. However, I expect he will still get a fair number of at-bats in the two-hole, but I expect him to get only around 300 at-bats hitting second.

The Mets will be hard pressed to match last year's 97-win season. It's unlikely that they will post a one-run record anywhere near as good as last season's and the bullpen figures to be worse off than a season ago. But those differences will hopefully be countered by increased health and production from their starting rotation and an even stronger offense, boosted by a rebound season by Carlos Delgado and (hopefully) the removal of Paul Lo Duca from a key spot in the batting order.

Prediction: 95-67