Third Presidential Debate Preview - Updated All Day

Debate Summary Part III

October 15th, 10:35 pm eastern

The final question from Moderator Bob Schieffer asked if the poor state of education in America despite the higher per capita cost was a threat to national security. Obama said it was a threat to the country's continued supremacy and that he advocated a college tax credit of $4000 in exchange for community service, but that parents had to take some responsibility for their children's efforts as well. McCain advocated charter schools and transferable tuition vouchers. Obama agreed that he also supports charter schools and competition in the school system, but disagreed with the idea that vouchers will cure the education system.

McCain's closing remarks asked whether voters can trust each candidate to fulfill the promises they made during the debate and pointed to his family's history of service to the country. Obama repeated that the policies of the last eight years have not worked and that it would be a mistake to repeat those policies for four more years. Change is needed, he said, to achieve 'brighter days." Obama called for all Americans to come together with a spirit of sacrifice and service for the good of the country's future.

Notably, after the debate McCain made a very clear show of shaking Obama's hand to prevent the criticisms he received after failing to do so after the second debate.

After watching the debate, I would say that McCain had a slightly stronger showing than he did in the previous two debates. Who won? I think it was too close to call; those with a predisposition will see their candidate as the victor, those who were uncommitted, probably didn't see a lot to change their mind. If the pattern from the previous two debates holds true then Obama will gain a little more ground than McCain. Videos of all three debates can be viewed at www.myspace.com/mydebates. I encourage anyone who missed them to go there and watch them, and most especially I urge you all to get out and vote for your candidate.

Presidential Debate Summary Part II

October 15th, 10:15 pm eastern

The discussion turned to the comments shouted out at McCain Palin rallies. There was little reaction to this part of the discussion on CNN's voter sentiment tracker. Although again men seemed to favor McCain while women showed more support for Obama. When Obama said that the campaign should not focus on attacking character, the tracker showed strong support for his statement from both groups. McCain then said it was important for the people to know the truth about Ayers and ACORN. Obama then described the full nature of his relationship with William Ayers which he described as serving on a Republican funded board years ago and that Ayers had no connection with the Obama campaign. He described ACORNs actions as independent of the Obama campaign.

McCain then repeated the accusations of ca close affiliation between Obama and Ayers while Obama protested those statements as untrue; the CNN voter sentiment tracker showed uncommitted voters were unimpressed by the accusations.

Bob Schieffer's next question asked about the quality of the chosen running mates. Obama applauded Joe Biden's record of fighting on behalf of working families since he, himself grew up in a tough economic situation with his father losing his job in Scranton, and on and on... McCain said American's have gotten to know Sarah Palin and that she is a "role model to women." She is, he said, a reformer and has faced down the oil companies. Oddly perhaps, the CNN voter tracker showed a strong response by men and that women were thoroughly not moved by talk of Sarah Plain as a role model or reformer. When Obama was asked whether Palin was qualified, he said that was up to the American people to decide, but had generally good things to say about Palin. McCain agreed that Biden was qualified, but that he was wrong on many foreign policy issues that were supposed to be his strength.

The next question asked each candidate was asked to say what percentage of oil imports could be eliminated during their first term. McCain said all imports of Middle Eastern and Venezuelan oil could be eliminated in 7-10 years. That seems to be a pretty lofty claim. Obama agreed that in 10 years the same goal could be accomplished. From there, the candidates launched into a lengthy discussion of free trade. McCain concluded that Obama doesn't want free trade with our closest South American ally, but wants to sit down and talk with Hugo Chavez.

Health care was next on tap. Obama advocated allowing individuals to choose the same plan that he and Senator McCain get as federal employees and advocated focusing on preventive care which would cost money in the short term, but would save money in the long term. Senator McCain said put health care records online, add more health clinics, more nutrition programs in schools, and offered a $5000 health care credit. He then went back to Joe the Plumber and said that Obama's plan would fine people who don't choose the right health care plan. Obama said the fine was zero dollars for Joe because he exempted small businesses, but large business had to accept responsibility for health plans for their employees. Obama described McCain's $5000 credit would result in middle aged and older employees would lose health coverage since the $5000 credit would not cover it and that people would be taxed on their employer health care benefits. McCain then said once again that Obama's plan would result in a fine for small businesses, despite Obama just saying that small businesses are exempt. The CNN voter sentiment tracker showed lack of support for McCain's Joe the Plumber analogies, but stronger support when McCain talked about smaller government.

Would you impose a litmus test on Supreme Court Justice nominees. McCain said that although he disagrees with many Supreme Court decisions, he would never support a litmus test, but would appoint the best qualified people. Obama replied that the most important qualification for the Supreme Court is to be fair and just in making decisions, but that he personally thinks that Roe vs. wade was decided correctly though good people can disagree. Women, he said, should be able to make their own decisions with their own doctors and families.

Debate Summary Part I

October 15^th, 9:30 PM eastern

McCain opened the debate with the Joe the Plumber story. As we know, Obama did not impress Joe with his tax plan. McCain followed immediately with Obama's "spread the wealth around" comment and discussion of raising taxes. McCain said he supports lowering taxes on businesses which would create jobs. Obama countered that he would lower taxes for 95% of Americans, because people like Warren Buffet and others who make more than a quarter of a million dollars a year can afford to pay a little more. McCain said "Why raise taxes for anybody?"

The next question was what will you cut back to pay for the bailout and soaring deficit? Obama said the bailout should result in the taxpayer getting their money back if structured properly, but that he pays for every bit of his proposed new spending by eliminating current spending for programs that don't work, like insurance company subsidies. McCain went back to talking points, like establishing energy independence which would create new jobs, he also advocated an across the board spending freeze. When pinned by Moderator Bob Schieffer, McCain said he'd cut the ethanol subsidies. He said he'd veto every earmark spending bill that crossed his desk. In these days, that's just about every one that gets through Congress. Obama replied that earmarks end up accounting for one half of one percent of the federal budget, and while we should fix them, that won't make any difference in the overall budget.

Schieffer then asked if either candidate could balance the budget within four years. McCain said yes through jobs created with energy independence. It was interesting to note that the voter sentiment tracker shown by CNN showed a marked divergence in reaction between men and women. Male uncommitted Ohio voters seemed to generally favor McCain and his policies, while women strongly favored Obama's comments. McCain tried to draw distinction between himself and George Bush by listing a litany of cases where they disagreed, while Obama sought to link McCain and Bush as more of the same.

The next point was about negative ads. Schieffer asked both whether they supported the negative ads they each ran. McCain said that the campaign could have been different if Obama had agreed to campaign in McCain's preferred format for a series of debates. He then accused Obama of supporting the statements made by Senator Lewis, and said that Obama had spent more on negative ads than anyone in history. Obama's response was that 100 percent of McCain's ads have been negative and that the American people are not interested in hurt feelings and negative ads than they are about energy and economic policies. He also noted that just because there were no town hall meetings does not justify negative campaigns that avoid the issues.

Deck Stacked Against John McCain

October 15^th, 8:55 pm eastern

With the debate just moments away, there is no hint of a game-changing event that might reverse the current momentum. It's pretty much agreed that in a repeat of the performances of the previous two presidential debates would be a win for Obama. McCain needs not just to get on base, but to hit a grand slam to pull this out. To date, Obama has won the public opinion when it comes to the economy and that is the driving for the majority of Americans due to the current state of affairs. CNN News is interviewing a panel of voters right now. The Republican said they want to hear what each candidate will do to fix the economy, the registered Independent wanted to know how the candidates will restore America's respectability around the world, and the registered Democrat, who was younger, wanted to hear about education finance and job market security. All three have said they were undecided at this point despite their declared party affiliation. I have yet to hear any undecided voter answer that same question with anything remotely resembling a request to have the candidates discuss the links of either candidate to persons with criminal backgrounds. Fundamentally, that is McCain's problem right now. He can't seem to gain ground on the issues that voters are saying are important to them. Obama also has a much larger reserve of campaign funds available and is outspending McCain on advertising at a time when McCain needs to have his message be much louder. Unless something happens to change the issues that matter most, McCain has a nearly impossible task ahead of him. While he has a history of thriving under adverse conditions, the economy might have him trumped this time.

Source: CNN News television

Obama and GOP Websites offer Tax and Spending Figures

October 15^th , 7:30 pm eastern

With debate questions expected to focus on the economy, McCain has sought to paint Obama as a typical tax and spend Democrat. Obama has tried to put forth the idea that he will cut taxes for the average American family while McCain wants to cut taxes for the wealthy. Both camps have established websites to reinforce their messages. They can be found here: http://www.gop.com/obamaspendometer.htm from McCain and http://taxcut.barackobama.com/ from Obama. McCain's site offers his tabulation of the new spending that Obama proposes, while Obama's site lets visitors calculate the effect of his plan on their own income tax bill with an easy to use calculator. To be clear though, the obamapendometer site belongs to the Republican Party and by law McCain could not have participated in its creation or approved the message it contains... though it is certainly consistent with his own messages. With an hour and a half to go before the debate, we won't have long to wait. I'll be here during and after the debate to take a look at how each candidate does, and analyst reactions.

Is Obama Baiting McCain with Ayers?

October 15^th, 7:00 pm eastern

ABC News reported tonight that Barack Obama said that John McCain hasn't dared to bring up Ayers to his face or words to that effect. John McCain's predictable response: "I think he has just guaranteed that it will be brought up tonight." If Obama has been paying attention to the public's reaction to the attacks, especially those of undecided voters, then he did this on purpose to get McCain to help push those undecided voters into the Obama camp. Read the posts below from earlier today for more detail. If as I wrote earlier, Obama plans to use Ayers and ACORN attacks as a ready foil for his "out of touch with America" message, McCain will be playing into Obama's hand by responding to this thinly veiled challenge. McCain can't win with this message tonight in my opinion. Independent voters have already heard these attacks and haven't responded favorably. Hearing them one more time isn't going to suddenly produce different results. It also damages McCain's credibility as one who can "reach across the aisle" to those in the other party to achieve results. After his slash and burn campaign in this election season, he has very little chance of working with a cooperative Democratic Congress if he wins the presidency.

Source: ABC News television

A Democratic Mandate from the People?

October 15^th, 6:00 pm eastern

If the presidential poll numbers remain constant until election day, Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. Let's assume for the sake of discussion that nothing significant happens to change things in the next few weeks. Is it time, then, to start asking how long will Obama's coat-tails be? By all reports, the Democratic Party looks to gain seats in both the House and Senate. The Democrats may even gain enough seats to have a filibuster-proof majority. That means that the Democrats will be able to essentially dictate policy for at least the next two years, and perhaps longer. While the Democrats have a substantial lead nationwide, the magnitude of the Democratic Congressional victory may be widely underestimated. Nobody likes to go to the polls and vote for someone who is assured of losing. Why bother? If Obama has a 10-14 point lead in the polls as he does today (refer to the posts below for details), many Republican voters may decide to stay home on election day. That would spell disaster for many state and local Republican candidates and could lead to many unanticipated Democratic victories. The Republicans swept into power in Congress in 1994 on the popularity of Ronald Reagan, and now this year many may find themselves swept right back out on the unpopularity of George Bush and John McCain.

How Will Obama Counter Ayers and ACORN?

October 15^th, 5:28 pm eastern

Earlier in the day I discussed John McCain's campaign saying that they will likely bring up William Ayers in the debate tonight and how Barack Obama will try to direct McCain back to issues that Americans care about in a time of economic crisis. To expand upon this further, we hearken back to the previous debate where Barack Obama used the phrase "out of touch" repeatedly when referring to John McCain and his policies. I expect that this will be Obama's key phrase from tonight as well. Every time McCain strays from the question being asked or launches into an attack with the Ayers or ACORN linkage to Obama, expect Obama to counter with a response like this: "John, is showing once again, how out of touch he is with the American people and the issues that matter to Main Street. The people are tired of the politics of division and want a leader who can bring us together to address solutions to quell this economic turmoil. They don't care about things that happened 30 or 40 years ago, John, they care about what's happening to their jobs today." Of course, those are my words, but expect to hear a loose paraphrase of that statement at least once, and more likely several times tonight as Obama attempts to dismiss any attacks as irrelevant.

The Onion Lightens Things up as Campaign Talk Turns to Socialism

October 15^th, 3:30 p.m. eastern

As we prepare for tonight's presidential debate, it may be time for a humor break. By now, we've all seen by now the Saturday Night Live skits of the last presidential debate, but many may not have seen the latest lampooning of the candidates by The Onion, a popular news satire website. Here's what they had to say about McCain's preparations. In the name of fairness, The Onion also took a shot at Obama with this article.

Getting back to the serious side of things, one note that we can expect to hear from John McCain in tonight's debate is reference to Obama's recent statement that he hopes to "spread the wealth around." To Republicans, this means socialism, plain and simple. The question McCain needs to ask, though, is does it mean the same thing to the undecided, independent voter. Hard core Republicans and Democrats have long ago decided for whom they cast their votes, so messages geared to those constituencies may be wasted unless they also resonate with those voters who have yet to make up their minds. Those already screaming about the Bush administration's socialist recapitalization of the banks are certainly not likely to be swing voters this time around.

Source: Theonion.com

Bob Schieffer Vows to Make Candidates Answer Questions

October 15^th, 2:15 p.m. eastern

Veteran newsman Bob Schieffer is the moderator of tonight's presidential debate. In statements reported by CNN, Schieffer has stated that he will not allow the candidates to avoid answering the questions that he asks of them. Those who watched previous debates will recall that both candidates tended to wander off to prepared talking points at times rather than responding directly to what was asked of them. Both candidates will be seated at the same table during the debate tonight, a format that may lend a different dynamic to the debate. Fixed stations and close proximity to one another could encourage greater personal confrontation between the candidates. It should also make for a more entertaining experience for the audience as the candidates personal reactions to the others comments should be much more visible to television viewers. Both candidates will do well to present controlled reactions as their opponent speaks.

Source: CNN Television

Colin Powell to Endorse Obama After Debate?

October 15^th, 2:00 p.m. eastern

Fox News is now reporting that Zbigniew Brzezinski, Robert Novak and William Kristol are predicting that Colin Powell, secretary of state under President Bush, endorse Barack Obama, possibly as early as tonight. Powell's endorsement, if it materializes would help add credibility to Barack Obama's military and foreign policy positions. Powell's endorsement of Barack Obama would imply that, having examined the positions of both presidential candidates, as a former general and secretary of state, he finds those of Barack Obama to be superior. While we would expect the McCain camp to shrug off the recommendation, it would certainly be a damaging blow for this to hit the news in the finals weeks before the election. Fox News suggests that Powell may wait for the end of the debate tonight to make an endorsement. Until Colin Powell himself actually makes a statement, however, this information is coming from unnamed sources and can't be viewed as reliable, despite being reported by major news outlets.

Source: Fox News - elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/15/colin-powell-fuels-speculation-possible-endorsement/

Newest Battleground State Poll and Presidential Debate Highlights

October 15^th, 12:44 p.m. eastern

Sometimes, presidential campaigns can receive significant boosts from presidential debate performances. Most of the time, though, these debates turn out to be minor footnotes in history. Another Associated Content Author, Stewart G. Bratcher, J.D. takes note of some decisive and entertaining moments from past presidential and vice presidential debates. John McCain really needs one of those defining debate moments to shift the momentum in key battleground states. In a brand new CNN/ Time Opinion Research Poll of likely voters. Key states break out this way:

Colorado shows a 4% lead for Obama.

Georgia has an 8% lead for McCain.

Missouri gives a 1% edge to McCain in a virtual deadlock.

Perhaps the biggest shift is Virginia. President Bush won this state by 8 percentage points in the last election, but Obama now leads over John McCain by a seemingly insurmountable 10%.

Another major switch is brewing in Florida which President Bush carried twice. Obama is currently leading there by 5%.

Source:

CNN/ Time Opinion Research Poll reported by CNN Headline News.

Fox News Previews Barack Obama's Debate Strategy

October 15^th, 12:15 p.m. eastern

According to reports on Fox News TV, Barack Obama's debate strategy will be designed to appeal to independent voters who tend to be less partisan and less receptive to attacks. Obama will likely try to deflect any mention of Ayers or the ACORN voter registration issues by asking John McCain if this is really what matters to the American people at this time. With both candidates releasing economic plans earlier in the week, according to Fox News analysts, Obama will ask McCain to stay focused on those plans.

Also worth noting earlier this week are the results of the Scholastic News Presidential Poll among school children. This poll has a good, but not perfect record of predicting presidential election winners. This year, the result was a landslide victory for Barack Obama. Read more details of the Scholastic News mock election from Associated Content news reporter Saul Relative.

Sarah Palin: McCain will Balance Budget by End of Term

October 15, 12:00 p.m. eastern

Sarah Palin spoke today at Dover high school in New Hampshire. She used the opportunity to highlight john McCain's plan to provide aid to the common citizen by lowering taxes on business, which, she said, is the way to create jobs. She again attacked Barack Obama on taxes, claiming that he would raise taxes during a time when America can least afford it. In perhaps a preview of a new message that we may see from McCain in tonight's presidential debate, Sarah Palin promised that the McCain administration would balance the federal budget by the end of his term. That's a message that should appeal to traditional Republicans and perhaps even some Clinton supporters. However, there was no specific information about where the additional income or budget cuts to accomplish that lofty goal might come from.

Sarah Palin sympathized with the common worker as they struggle during the current economic conditions and promised that John McCain would help get those who are faced with rising mortgage costs get into affordable fixed rate mortgages. The McCain presidency would offer, she said, "Not a handout, but a hand up."

Source: Live Coverage of Sarah Palin's Address on Fox news Television

NY Times/ CBS News Poll Says McCain Attacks Turning Away Voters

October 15th, 11:20 a.m. eastern

The latest NY Times/ CBS News Poll shows that Obama leads McCain among probable voters by 53% to 39% among probable voters nationwide in a head to head contest. The NY Times reports that the poll asked voters who had recently changed their opinion of John McCain what caused them to do so. John McCain's attacks on Obama and his choice of Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin were the most frequently offered responses. Those whose opinion of McCain had changed, shifted in favor of Barack Obama by a three to one margin.

That doesn't look good for the McCain campaign as we head to the final weeks before the election. Being behind in the polls is one thing, but being behind and still falling is quite another. Foon Rhee, Deputy National Political Editor of the Boston Herald, writes today that McCain needs a "Hail Mary" (a term very familiar to fans of Boston's Doug Flutie) to pull even with Obama at this point. As I mentioned earlier, McCain says he will probably bring up William Ayers again in tonight's debate. So far, attacks like that seem to be effective at marshalling the energies of the conservative base of the Republican Party, but seems to be turning independent voters away.

When Bob Barr and Ralph Nader were thrown into the mix, The NY Times/ CBS News Poll showed that Obama lost 2% of his support, but still maintained a 12 point lead among likely voters.

Sources:

The Boston Herald - boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/10/does_mccain_nee.html

The NY Times - nytimes.com/2008/10/15/us/politics/15poll.html?_r=2&hp=&oref=slogin&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

McCain Campaign Still Looking for Direction Leading up to Tonight's Debate

Oct. 15, 10:14 a.m. eastern

Wednesday night's presidential debate will give the candidates one last chance to engage each other on the issues. The debate will be held at 9:00 PM eastern. Both candidates have released detailed outlines of their economic plans in the last two days so we can expect both to highlight the differences between the plans. In the first thirty minutes after the opening bell on Wednesday, the market was down another 220 points despite Monday's record-breaking rally. It appears that we have a long way to go before we reach stability. Bloomberg News reports that Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen, in a speech to business executives on Tuesday said that not only is the US in a recession right now, but "The turmoil in global financial markets poses a serious and direct threat to the well-being of all citizens of the global economy." We can only hope that the candidates will spend the bulk of the debate talking about this and other serious issues. CNN reported on Wednesday morning, however, that John McCain's campaign will bring up the tenuous ties between Barack Obama and William Ayers. Just days after telling his supporters that there is no "reason to fear an Obama Presidency," McCain is apparently going to resume trying to link Obama and terrorists. This comes as William Kristol writes in the NY Times that "It's time for John McCain to fire his campaign." Something he did during the primary race, by the way. With polls such as this one from Quinnipiac University showing substantial leads for Obama in key battleground states, the McCain campaign seems to still be looking for a message that resonates with the voters.

Sources:

CNN Headlines News

Bloomberg News: bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=asSZxyFTNrAU&refer=home

Associated Content: associatedcontent.com/article/1101813/mccain_defends_obama_against_supporters.html

Quinnipiac University: quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1220

NY Times; http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/opinion/13kristol.html