Thoughts on an Insurgency

I always find it mildly amusing whenever I hear the talking heads spout off on what it will take to defeat the insurgency in Iraq. In the first place they are usually policy wonks who have never spent a day in uniform and don't know the first thing about executing a successful counterinsurgency. Secondly, if they spent any time with their history books at all they would realize that successful counterinsurgencies are a rare commodity in the history of the world. Lastly, they almost always underestimate the conviction and staying power of the insurgents themselves. Its that last point I'd like to focus on today.

In order to understand what kind of commitment it will take for us to defeat the insurgents, I will spin you a little tale. Imagine it is the year 2001. The world at large has decided that George Bush did not win Florida and in fact stole the Presidential election. Given his initial public utterances and policy proposals the world community decides that he is a dangerous religious nut who is looking to bring on armageddon. Since he was not lawfully elected in a free and open election, and better than half the country does not want him as their President, the world decides that his regime needs to be overthrown. For good measure, they also decide that Americans have proven themselves incapable of governing themselves, based on an almost total lack of interest by the voting public.

So the world bands together, special ops teams neutralize the American nuclear capability and massive forces staged in Canada and Mexico roll into the US. In little time, the American military is simply overwhelmed by Russian, Chinese, Indian and European forces. George Bush is removed from office and placed under arrest. The liberation army disbands the American military and police forces and settles in to rebuild America in the Parliamentary image of, well of the rest of the world. They install an interim government and call for open elections to write a new constitution (with much input from the liberators).

Sure enough, a resistance movement is formed. Based in the urban jungles and the vast open spaces of America, this movement conducts hit and run attacks deigned to sap the will of the occupiers until they leave the United States to rule itself as it sees fit.

So tell me dear reader, given the story I have just told, what size would the surge need to be and how long would it need to last before the American Insurgency gave up and accepted the rule of a puppet government imposed by a foreign invader?