Three Way Race for Massachusetts Governor, 2010?

No one should really be surprised that there are growing signs of a hotly contested three way race for Governor in Massachusetts in 2010. The table has more than been set for political surprises in the Bay state. Long a Democratic Party mainstay, Massachusetts political analysts are still shaking their heads at the emergence of Republican Scott Brown as a viable candidate for , and then victor in, the state's recent senatorial contest.

The fall out after that election continues as both Democrats and Republicans alternately run for cover or see an opportunity for advantage. The governor's chair is currently held by Democrat Deval Patrick but perhaps less firmly than it might have been before the Scott Brown breakthrough. Republican Charlie Baker has already gained the nomination of the State Republican committee. Ordinarily the a two man race would be on. Enter new entry Tim Cahill, formerly a Democrat but now running as an independent.

As of May 12, according to Rasmussen's Reports, incumbent Patrick holds a tidy lead over both opponents at 45 % of voters likely to go his way. Baker sits at 31% and Cahill is trailing at 14% and that's exactly where the fun and the unpredictability come in. Simple Math shows that the lead held by Patrick disappears when you put together the total of his two opponents. Should Cahill's meager support dwindle further what will it mean for the other two candidates? Will Cahill stay in the race to the end and be a spoiler for one or the other candidate

So far Cahill, who has been under a relentless barrage of television ads on local stations, shows no signs of wilting. While his numbers were higher earlier on, he is actively courting grassroots support much like Scott Brown, hoping perhaps for the upset to appear a second time. Cahill is visible at local meetings and events that are likely to draw crowds with his nomination papers in hand. His youth and affability are getting a good airing but the results of these efforts are still undetermined. As an independent he has an uphill battle ahead for sure but that's just part of the fun.

Political junkies, myself included, are already getting comfortable for what looks like a long and interesting race between a Democratic incumbent with a few strikes against him, a lesser know Republican who represents a possibly resurgent party, and a newly independent upstart who is looking to cash in on the apparent willingness of Massachusetts voters to vote the man not the party. There are fireworks ahead in Massachusetts in 2010 but not just on the fourth of July