Tommy Hayfield's Predictions, NFL 2011 Week 6: Against the Spread

NFL 2011 Week 6
My Picks Against the Spread
Buffalo Vs New York Giants...the Giants lost a tough one last week to the Seahawks on a late pick-6 as they were driving for a go-ahead td...the Bills look good and this road game will be telling for Buffalo: this will prove if they are pretenders or for real...check back on Tuesday for my pick against the points after lines are posted. Buffalo has a +8.8 power rating while the Giants have a +0.8...this number is the average offensive points per game minus the defensive points allowed per game.
My Pick...Buffalo (+3)

Indy Vs Cincinnati...this one will prove that 0-6 is possible for a good team that is just lacking one important player: quarterback Peyton Manning. Cincy can beat Indy even though everyone--the experts-- said Andy Dalton can't win as a rookie, but he is winning...stop back for this pick. Cincy has a +2.2 power rating while Indy has a -9.8.
My Pick...Cincy (-7)

Jacksonville Vs Pittsburgh...the big Jags defensive line can stop the running-Steelers, but they have no reliable offense with a rookie qb (Blaine Gabbert) learning in a sink-or-swim fashion: he's sinking. It's not fair to throw him in against a veteran team like the Steelers who'll put offensive pressure on him to produce points...stop back for this pick. Jacksonville has a -11.2 power rating while Pittsburgh has a +2.6.
My Pick...Jacksonville (+13)

Philly Vs Washington...the Redskins are playing much better than the gold-plated Eagles who were crowned champ by a lot of sports heads without seeing a play diagrammed on paper. The Eagles have defensive backfield problems that teams rotate to to get mismatches: the Eagles have issues not related to Michael Vick. The Redskins might have a less talented team than Philly, but this isn't an opinion survey to the Redskins. If the Skins can exploit the Eagles weak secondary look for another loss. Check back for this pick on Tuesday as well. Washington has a +5.0 power rating while Philly has a -1.4.
My Pick...Philly (-1.5)

San Fran Vs Detroit...this is an intriguing matchup to say the least: the 49ers are 4-1 after the Week 5 crushing of Tampa Bay while Detroit is unbeaten entering their Week 5 Monday night game versus Chicago...check back for the pick after the spread is posted on Tuesday. San Fran has a +12.8 power rating while Detroit has a +13.3.
My Pick...Detroit (-5)

St Louis Vs Green Bay...this isn't fair for the Rams who might be humiliated by Green Bay in Lambeau Field this week...the winless Rams are looking at a whooping. Check back on Tuesday for the 14-point plus point spread and my pick: it might be 17 or 18! Green Bay has a +13.6 power rating while St Louis has a -16.5.
My Pick...Green Bay (-14)

Carolina Vs Atlanta...the Panthers are 4-1 against the spread though only 1-4 in the win-loss column. They are the most exciting 1-4 team EVER! This game will be in Atlanta and though I picked the Panthers to beat the Saints in Week 5 they lost in an exciting game. I think they'll once again lose a close one to the Falcons who are a tough home team: expect a high-scoring game with Carolina losing a nail biter. Once again my pick will be available after the spreads are posted on Tuesday. Carolina has a -3.2 power rating while Atlanta has a -5.2.
My Pick...Carolina (+5)

Cleveland Vs Oakland...the Browns are coming off a bye week in Week 5 while the Raiders are looking like a possible playoff team with an exciting offense. Cleveland has a station-to-station offense that is tedious to observe though they eke out wins occasionally. Maybe they'll push around the Raiders a bit after a week off the gridiron though the exciting and explosive home-Raiders will still win against the boring and tedious Browns: come back on Tuesday after the spread is posted in this one. Cleveland has a -5.0 power rating while Oakland has a +0.6.
My Pick...Cleveland (+7)

Houston Vs Baltimore...Baltimore has showed its toughness and will be fresh and fresher with Loch Raven gloom ready for the traveling-Texans: Houston lost a close one to Oakland in Week 5 on an end zone pass attempt as time wound down to near zero. Former University of Virginia quarterback Matt Schaub will be in his former zone of influence just a few hours away from Charlottesville in this one: the Ravens won't be kind in this one...stop back on Tuesday for my pick. Houston has a +6.4 power rating while Baltimore has a +15.6.
My Pick...Houston (+5.5)

New Orleans Vs Tampa Bay...how did Tampa Bay give up 48 points to the 49ers in Week 5: this New Orleans team can score that many points and no one will be surprised. So, which Bucs team will this be: the one scared by the Golden Gate Bridge or the team that beat Atlanta a few weeks ago? Stop back on Tuesday and see what line is posted in this one. New Orleans has a +6.4 power rating while Tampa Bay has a -7.6.
My Pick...New Orleans (-5)

Dallas Vs New England...can the Pats just beat anyone who strolls into Foxboro: I think they can beat Dallas. Dallas is coming off a one-week vacation and will be fresh enough to be sliced and served with those chowder crackers in Massachusetts next Sunday. Who can really beat the Pats up there? Check back on Tuesday with my pick after the line is posted. Dallas has a -0.4 power rating while the Patriots have a +9.2.
My Pick...Dallas (+7)

Minnesota Vs Chicago...the poor Vikes are in a tough spot in the NFC North division: the Bears are the defending division champs; the Packers are the (undefeated)Super Bowl Champs; the Lions are undefeated and on an eight-game regular season winning streak. This game in Chicago on Sunday night in Week 6 doesn't look like a win to me for the Vikes: stop back on Tuesday and find out what the line is and my pick. Minnesota has a +1.0 power rating while Chicago has a -3.0.
My Pick...Minnesota (+3)

Miami Vs New York Jets...there might be three winless teams after Week 6 with the Dolphins being one: the other ones are St Louis and Indianapolis. This Miami team will be breaking in a new qb against the Jets who will be thrilled to see a youngster to pick on after being assaulted in Week 5 by the Patriots. The betting line could be large this week with a 10-point plus point spread possible: check back on Tuesday to see the line and my pick. Miami has a -8.8 power rating while the Jets have a -0.8.
My Pick...Miami (+8)

*If you wish to see my Week 6 picks on video--about 7:30 minutes long--go to the link HERE.

Week 6 Bye Teams...
St Louis, Denver, Kansas City, San Diego. Seattle and Tennessee

* In Week 5 I went 9-4 against the point spread...I won my final pick of the Week 5 schedule with the Lions covering the points in the Monday night game. Here are my Week 5 picks with the final scores attached.


NFL 2011 Week 5
My Picks Against the Spread
Tennessee Vs Pittsburgh...Tennessee goes to Heinz Field surprisingly having scored more points than the Steelers though finding themselves the 6.5 point underdogs. This is a good Titans team though with injuries...Ben Roethlisberger may play but it's not certain. I pick Tennessee (+6.5)
Final Score... Pittsburgh 38 Tennessee 17

Oakland Vs Houston...Oakland and Houston score a lot of points with the Raiders slightly outscoring Houston in 2011. This game is in Houston...the Texans put up a tough defense against the Steelers in Week 4. This is a tough game to pick...I'll pick the road-Raiders (+5.5)
Final Score...Oakland 25 Houston 20

Kansas City Vs Indianapolis...Indy showed their new quarterback Curtis Painter against the Bucs on Monday Night in Week 4 and lost to a good Tampa Bay team. I think Painter should have been their choice in Week 1...at 0-4 this is a good time to start winning at home versus the Chiefs. I pick the Colts (-2)
Final Score...Kansas City 27 Indy 24

Cincinnati Vs Jacksonville...Jacksonville has a pitiful offense and Cincy has twice the scoring output as the Jags...the Jags will find their offense eventually, but I hope not this week. I pick Cincinnati (+2.5)
Final Score...Cincinnati 30 Jacksonville 20

Seattle Vs New York Giants...Seattle also has a pitiful offense--14.5 points a game scoring output-- in 2011 while the Giants have scored that in the first half of most games. I pick the Giants to beat the wandering Seahawks...I pick the Giants (-9.5)
Final Score...Seattle 36 New York Giants 25

Arizona Vs Minnesota...these teams are (offensively) even matches and the Vikings are looking for a first win in 201l...Arizona looks to be a weakling still to most people with a young quarterback and new running backs though they have scored 21.5 points a game in 2011. In contrast Minnesota has scored 19.2 a game...I think Minnesota gets its first win: I pick the Vikes (-3) in this one.
Final Score...Minnesota 34 Arizona 10

New Orleans Vs Carolina...Carolina has gone 3-1 against the point spread this year and have looked great despite their 1-3 record. New Orleans can also put up points...I expect this one to be a high-scoring in the 30s for each team. In front of the home crowd it'll be exciting as the 2010 champs come to town...I pick the Panthers (+6.5)
Final Score...New Orleans 30 Carolina 27

Philadelphia Vs Buffalo...Buffalo lost an overtime one to Cincy in Week 4 and Philly continues to struggle to hold leads...they gave up a huge lead to the REALLY weak San Francisco offense in Week 4. Buffalo can score points against good teams...I pick Buffalo (+3)
Final Score...Buffalo 31 Philly 24

Tampa Bay Vs San Francisco...Frisco came from behind to beat Philly in Week 4 while the Bucs beat Indy at home on Monday Night in Week 4. San Francisco has pitiful offensive numbers, but they score points somehow and are 3-1 (4-0 against the point spread in 2011.) I can't see the 49ers beating this Bucs team with that offense...I pick Tampa Bay (+2.5)
Final Score...San Fran 48 Tampa Bay 3

New York Jets Vs New England...the Jets have been revealed as lacking a running game and they also are lacking a healthy offensive line. I don't know how they'll keep up with the Patriots in Foxboro who haven't lost in what seems like forever with Brady at quarterback: I think the consecutive home-games winning streak with Tom Brady is 29...I pick the Patriots (-8)
Final Score...New England 30 Jets 21

San Diego Vs Denver...Denver lost to a good Green Bay team in Week 4 while San Diego beat Miami...this game looks closer to me than six points. I'll pick Denver (+6)
Final Score...San Diego 29 Denver 24

Green Bay Vs Atlanta...Green Bay has looked awesome in 2011: they're 3-1 against the spread and they've been big favorites in all their games. I look for Green Bay to once again show the Falcons the exit: I pick the Packers on the road (-4)
Final Score...Green Bay 25 Atlanta 14

Chicago Vs Detroit...Detroit is not scared to win on the road anymore: that's what the geniuses were saying when they were losing...the fact is they just weren't good enough. In ESPN-speak, which many of us are overdosing on, lack of talent translates into being fearful: they have talented quarterback Matthew Stafford now who could put the Lions in the NFC championship game versus the Packers...this is a divisional game which brings out the hard hits...I don't think the Bears will make a playoff trip this year, but this game will be a hard-hitting game...I pick the Lions (-6)
Final Score...Detroit 24 Chicago 13

Bye Teams...
Bye teams in Week 5 are Baltimore, Cleveland, Dallas, St Louis, Washington, and Miami.

Resources...
Cooper's Pick
ESPN.go.com