Tommy Hayfield's Week 8 NFL Picks, Over-Under

As the NFL season enters its midpoint (for some teams) you can assess some trends in the NFL. Last year Tennessee went in to New England (October 18, 2009) and had their butts handed to them in a complete wipe out, 59-0. I don't know what happened in that game but this year Tennessee looks to be maybe the league's best. I think they are.

New England is still impossible to beat at home with Tom Brady under center and they also look to be a contender to be in the Super Bowl. They're at home versus Minnesota with the Brett Favre story dominating and distracting fans from the business of playing the game. His possibly broken ankle--maybe twice-broken-- could be a problem for the Vikes. No matter who quarterbacks this week against the Patriots they're up against a home field advantage that looks daunting though Minnesota can put up points enough to stay close to most teams. Tom Brady is hampered by injuries as well. Look for a New England easy victory.

Pittsburgh has been really good for what seems like a decade and they go to New Orleans in a game odds makers have posted a line of New Orleans (-1.) I think the Steelers go in and win this one as the Saints are lacking Reggie Bush to stretch out the field and that's important in football as in most team sports. Mike Wallace (WR) of Pittsburgh is astoundingly fast and everyone on New Orleans is looking at him or worrying about him getting in space so the advantage goes to the Steelers. A speed player at wide receiver is a daunting thing for defenses. Reggie Bush was a speed guy when he was playing and New Orleans positioned him everywhere to alarm and distract defenses. It worked but you have to be on the field for it to work.

Green Bay at the New York Jets has some keys to it. The Packers have a long passing offense but lack a ground game to eat time and keep the ball in their hands. The Jets have an excellent running game but an inexperienced quarterback in Mark Sanchez. The Packers have injuries to be concerned about but as a running team the Jets will reduce the length of the game with running plays and reduce possessions making the game within reach for the visiting team the Packers. The Jets are good but the Packers will stay close on the road.

Jacksonville at Dallas is an interesting game this week with the Jags giving up a lot of points and the Cowboys uncharacteristically losing every which way. I pick the Cowboys to win this one at home even though the players might think the playoffs are out of reach. If they lose this week they probably are.

Tennessee at San Diego is a story of two teams who can put up a lot of points but the Titans are rising and the Chargers are falling. Just a year ago Tennessee lost to New England 59-0 and this year they feature the number two scoring offense. With Vince Young they look really tough to stop to defenses since he can also still run and he's big. I think Tennessee wins in San Diego this week . San Diego lost last week at home to New England.

Miami's wide receiver Brandon Marshall is their stretcher and it seems to work on the road for the Dolphins and not at home. The Dolphins are 3-0 on the road and winless at home at 0-3. Can they actually go on the road in an admittedly underachieving atmosphere of offensive execution and win a 4th straight road game. Miami is a two-point 'dog but that hasn't stopped them so far.

What about the Oakland Raiders coming off a franchise record 59 point scoring output against Denver last week. Oakland scores 25+ points a game, but the 59 points were an aberration. Seattle comes in with average numbers but a run-stopping defense can stop the Raiders running game enough to win this road match up in Oakland's Coliseum. If the Raiders are forced to pass they'll lose.

The Broncos who play the visiting team in London's Wembley Stadium to San Francisco might have been a tad distracted by the upcoming overseas deployment in the middle of an NFL season influencing last week's embarrassing wipe out. I can't believe they didn't receive a bye week before this long plane ride across the pond. I think Denver wins this one.

This week has some games that look good to fans of the underdog: Buffalo @ Kansas City and Tampa Bay @ Arizona. Buffalo is still winless and they feature a feeble offense which amazingly kept it close last week against the Ravens but lost by a field goal. Kansas City is on a last-to- first ride this year and they are good at home. Will Kansas City who was pitiful last year look past the Bills and mail it in? I think the Chiefs will dominate this one and put up some points against the Bills who won't be in this in the 4th quarter.

Tampa Bay and Arizona are a real aberration: two teams who can't score points on offense for anything yet they're both in sight of the division lead. Arizona at 3-3 shouldn't be close to the top having scored just 98 points. The same can be said of Tampa Bay who has also scored 98 points and has a winning record. Both these teams' schedules were front loaded with easy games and those records will turn around in the second half of the season. I pick the home team in this match up.

Detroit versus Washington is an interesting match up with Detroit at home and the 'Skins coming off a road win in Chicago. Donovan McNabb has offensive problems finding wide receivers to go more than twenty yards down field on pass patterns; their running game is hampered by injuries so their short passing game is limited as well. Look for Detroit to win at home despite the reputation of McNabb which psyches out some teams. The 'Skins lack everywhere on offense but this game will be close since Detroit isn't very good either.

Carolina @ St Louis is easy for me to pick though Carolina has no offense to speak of scoring just 75 points this year and only seven touchdowns. That's not a formula for road victories even though St Louis isn't a dominant team. They're at home and in this match up it's enough.

Houston versus Indy at Indianapolis in the Monday night game is a good match up and a lot of points might be scored depending on Indy's injury problems. At home they'll win avenging a road loss to Houston earlier this year. I don't think it will be a high scoring game.

Here are the over-under picks:

Over 45.5 Buffalo @ Kansas City

Over 42.5 Jacksonville @ Dallas

Under 44 Washington @ Detroit

Over 43.5 Miami @ Cincinnati

Under 41.5 Denver @ San Francisco

Over 42 Green Bay @ New York Jets

Under 37 Carolina @ St Louis

Over 44 Tennessee @ San Diego

Under 39.5 Tampa Bay @ Arizona

Over 44 Minnesota @ New England

Over 42.5 Seattle @ Oakland

Over 44 Pittsburgh @ New Orleans

Over 49.5 Houston @ Indianapolis

Resources:
www.nfl.com
www.cooperspick.com