Tommy Hayfield's Week 9 NFL Picks Against the Point Spread

Point spreads are nasty things and no one ANYWHERE actually makes money betting an entire card of games (usually 13 or 14 games) each week. It's simply impossible to track the injuries accurately, the special teams skill levels, replacement players filling in for regular players, and how all these three factors combine to establish a winning number of points. I'm aware of a lot of things players experience on NFL teams, but the bringing together of facts and having a philosophy to gage the facts is the fun in doing predictions. Putting the predictions out there for everyone--hopefully everyone!--to read is a challenge!

Really good gamblers might win four out of seven bets on NFL games. That's only about a 56% success rate. There is a science to making money betting and the science is actually math...that sounds funny to some but it's true. The logic that makes betters win over losers (overall losers) is knowing when to put down a big bet and knowing when to reduce your bet. Knowing what games to avoid is REALLY important. Anyway there's my college-boy rant of the day.

This week features no fewer than seven home underdogs and that means the road team is thought to be good enough to win those games. On an average week of fourteen games the home team goes 8-6. I'm in a conundrum because I believe in long-established numbers which say the home team wins more than the road team. What to do?! I can't predict that home teams will have a losing week. That RARELY happens!

Here are the point spreads and my predictions for week 9 of the NFL wars. I wouldn't bet on all these games based on my picks, but I'll win a few.

Week 9 Match Ups

New York Jets @ Detroit (+4) The Jets are a road favorite in this game but I don't think the Lions can beat two non-divisional opponents in a row. The Lions cover the points versus the Jets. I'll pick the Lions (+4)

Tampa Bay (+8) @ Atlanta I pick Atlanta to win but I pick Tampa Bay to cover. Pick Tampa Bay (+8)

San Diego (-3) @ Houston I pick San Diego to survive this week against the Texans who I don't see as a special teams threat to the Chargers who have HUGE problems on punts and kickoffs. Pick San Diego (-3)

New Orleans @ Carolina (+6.5) Carolina covered the (+13) early in the season against the Saints in New Orleans. I pick the Panthers (+6.5)

Chicago @ Buffalo (+3) I'm gonna' say the unthinkable and predict the Bills win their first game this week against the Bears. And if they don't win I predict them to at least cover. I pick the Bills (+3)

Arizona (+9) @ Minnesota Both these teams are under-performing , but the Vikes are under-performing greater offensively than Arizona who lack talent. However, the points are too big for my comfort. I'll pick the Cardinals (+9)

New England (-5) @ Cleveland This a tricky one because of the weather in Cleveland that messes with kicking games...New England is dominant offensively and ought to cover the points. Watch out for the Fall wind from the lake. I'll pick New England (-5)

Miami (+5) @ Baltimore Miami has surprised me in road games all year and here they are against the Ravens on Sunday in Baltimore. I pick Miami to cover the points, but not to win. Pick Miami (+5)

Late Sunday Games
New York Giants (-7)@ Seattle The Giants have a good team and the Seahawks revealed last week versus
Oakland they have a vulnerability to balanced offensive as do most teams. I pick the Giants (-7)

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia (-3) I'm surprised that Philly is favored by that many points against the Colts but I think maybe the Eagles will win this one at home against the clearly better team. Pick Philly (-3)

Kansas City @ Oakland (-2.5) I feel good about Oakland and when did you last hear ANYONE say that about the Raiders. After putting up 92 points in two weeks they have arrived after years in the wilderness.. I think they'll win easily at home versus Kansas City. I'll pick Oakland (-2.5)

Sunday Night Game
Dallas (+8) @ Green Bay This pick is always tough because I'm a big Packers fan and can't see their weaknesses clearly, but I'm going to say that Dallas is embarrassed by their season-long drought and will show up mentally for this game and will cover the points. I'll pick Dallas (+8)

Monday Night Game
Pittsburgh (-4.5) @ Cincinnati Cincinnati is looking at yet another horrible season and calling on their pride will be insufficient to raise the Bengals up to the Steelers level. I pick the Steelers to cover the points. I'll pick the Steelers (-4.5)

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