Tony Blair to Step Down as Gordon Brown Likely to Be PM in Weeks

Tony Blair announced at an election rally that he would resign in a week and Gordon Brown would be his likely successor. His decision to step down has not taken anyone by surprise. He made it known in October 2004 that he would not be contesting elections for the fourth term, soon after he was admitted to the hospital for his heart problems. In fact, ever since Blair won the general elections of 2005, there have been speculations about his stepping down from office. It seems pretty strange to ask for the removal of a Prime minister soon after he has been legally elected. But politics in the UK is a different ball game, with their parliamentary system. Margaret Thatcher, the Conservative Prime Minister, with a fourth term election victory, would have been thought to be invincible. In fact, in Mrs. Thatcher's case, one fine day, the cabinet told her the game was up and that it was time for a change.

Probably to end all this speculation and to avoid Mrs. Thatcher's fate, Mr. Blair announced in September last year that he would eventually step down, but would reveal the exact date later. With this move, he thought he could silence his detractors and focus on the policy-making tasks still left for him. But things did not really happen that way. The announcement only fuelled speculation as to what exact date he would choose for his departure: his 10^th anniversary as PM in May 2007 or before the local council elections in May 2007 or during the Labor Party's conference in September 2007.

His rivals in the Labor Party, chiefly, Gordon Brown, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, has not been too happy over the vague nature of the announcement. Both Blair and Gordon had helped shape the face of the New Labor Party. When it was time to choose a leader, Gordon stepped back for Tony Blair to take over. It is often speculated by the press that now it is time for Blair to reciprocate the gesture. Moreover, it has made him a kind of a lame duck PM, if you will, with more interest in his timetable rather than on his functioning. Every measure that Tony Blair takes is viewed with respect to how it would affect Mr. Gordon Brown or his legacy.

How did the dynamics change for this youthful Prime Minister who won a landslide victory in 1997? The "Blair phenomenon," which hailed a "new dawn" in England has since subsided and today Labor is keen to distance itself from him. Without a doubt, Tony Blair's foreign policy on Iraq has proved to be his nemesis. He continues to justify the United Kingdom's involvement in "another country's" war, in complete disregard to public opinion at home. Blair supporters hope his domestic achievements will eventually outweigh his foreign policy initiatives: measures such as minimum wage, record spending on health, economic growth and low unemployment.

Ironically, Blair endorsed Gordon Brown as his successor after his tenth anniversary celebrations as PM. The elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh assembly and to the local councils all over England this May is possibly going to be seen as a referendum on the Labor Government, and especially, Tony Blair. He has definitely been a towering figure, bringing the United Kingdom prosperity in the home front and prestige, at the international level. Let's hope posterity will forgive his "mistakes" and give him credit for all that is his due.