Top 3 Reasons Why the Mavericks Will Still Beat the Heat

After Game 1 of the 2011 NBA Finals, a lot of internet comments were already writing off the Dallas Mavericks. The bench didn't perform. Nowitzki can't carry the team. His finger (on his non-shooting hand!) injury is the end of their season. The Heat's Big-3 are just too talented. The fact is, the Heat won game 1 on their home court, and not even convincingly. That's simply par for the course. The final score is very deceiving; the Heat only pulled away in the last minute or so.

I agree that the trio of James, Wade, and Bosh is talented, but reports of the Mavericks' death is an exaggeration. Here are my top three reasons that the Mavericks will still beat the Heat.

Dallas' Bench

Make no mistake, Dallas' bench is far superior to the Heat's. But, from time to time, they will play more poorly than the Heat's bench. Over the course of a seven game series, however, their superiority will showcase itself. Peja Stojakovic was 0-3. Jason Terry 3-10. JJ Barea 1-8, and Brendan Haywood missed an easy dunk. If you slide their numbers just a little closer to their season norms (saying nothing of their playoff averages), the Mavericks would have been up at the 2 minute mark, forcing the Heat to play under pressure. It would be different if stellar defense from the Heat was the reason for a poor shooting night. However, a number of misses came without defensive pressure and at spots on the floor that they normally hit from. Dallas' bench just needs to shake off this loss and bring it in the following games.

Of course, Dallas' players will laud the Heat defense, but they know that they had this game if not for the off shooting night.

Shawn Marion

Nobody really talks about Marion, but he can be a difference maker in this series. He shoots a good percentage from the field and from the stripe. Plays solid defense. Most importantly, he can go to work on any of Miami's rotation players. His post up game can tally additional fouls, and if Dallas gets in the bonus early, their solid free-throw shooting will put Miami on their heels. His 6-12 shooting in game 1 could have easily been 8-12 if he finished some easy lay-ups.

Dirk Nowitzki

He was 7-18, also with some heart-breaking, in-and-out buckets. But he was 12-12 from the line. The thing is, he could be 20-20 if he gets more aggressive on the Heat. When he watches the tape, he'll see how Wade dominated at the end. That's what Nowitzki did in the previous playoff rounds, demanding the ball and forcing the issue. The Heat must (and did) collapse on Nowitzki when he goes inside. And Dirk knows how to get to the line or get to his shooters. If Dirk gets Haslem or Bosh into foul trouble earlier, the Heat are in trouble.

Game 1 is over with. Now, all Dallas has to do is play their game.