Top Five Tipping Point States Based on the Latest Presidential Election Polls
1. Colorado- Colorado is a state that Barack Obama's campaign has been looking to turn blue from day one, hence why they held the Democratic National Convention in Denver. It's a state that voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004, but in 2004 the state turned quite a bit more democratic than it was in 2000 relative to the national averages. Right now the polls in the state of Colorado show Obama's lead at right about 6%, which is just about exactly what most polls show his national lead as.
2. Virginia- A democrat hasn't won here since 1964 in the presidential election so the mere fact that Barack Obama is competitive here is quite surprising, but he is not only competitive he is leading in all the recent polling data. In fact the RealClearPolitics average from the latest polls of the state show his lead at about 8.1%, which is even greater than the national average. In the end I believe Virginia will be a close state as the republicans still have a solid base here that is likely to keep the state very competitive.
3. Florida- A couple of months ago most people thought that the state of Florida would be a fairly easy victory for McCain, but things have changed in a big way since then. The average of the most recent polls show Obama with a 3.2% lead in the state. If the national popular vote ends even, expect Florida to be very tight, thus making it a tipping point.
4. Ohio- The state of Ohio has the potential to be the deciding state again this year. There has been quite a wide range in the polling numbers in Ohio, but the average of the most recent polls shows Obama with a lead of 2.8%. The consensus seems to be that Ohio will be slightly more republican than the national average, but don't underestimate the democrats efforts to turn out the vote in this state.
5. Nevada- Nevada isn't a very big state and it only has five electoral votes, but it could play a huge role in this election. The state has been hovering around the national popular vote average in the polls for the past couple of months, and it appears that this state will come down to the wire. The most recent average of the polls shows Obama with a lead of 4.2%, very similar to his lead in the national polls right now.
This list of tipping point states is not a list of which states I believe will be the closest, but rather the states that have the most potential to swing an election from one side to the other. Nevada would likely be higher on my list if it had more electoral votes, and a state like New Mexico or New Hampshire might make the list if had more electoral votes.
Published by Aaron Smith - Featured Contributor in Sports
I am a full-time freelance writer who specializes in writing about the world of sports as well as the financial industry. I write about a little bit of everything. My passion for all of these topics comes ou... View profile
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12 Comments
Post a Commentsike GO MCAIN i LOVE YOU SO MUCH U ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
When speaking about 'spreading the wealth around' Barack Obama is not talking about handouts. He's not talking about being Robin Hood. He's talking about focusing on the Middle Class which has suffered greatly in the past 8 years. In addition, if you look at the history of our nation, it has been the strongest when the middle class was large. An economy where 1% of the people owns more than 50% of the poorest is a economy that is providing avenues to benefit in a lopsided manner. It's not about giving to the poor, its about giving opportunity to the middle class. Most of the economic policies in this country provide more opportunity to the richer. The tax code being suggested allows them to give back at the same rate at which they benefit.
Great coverage.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes-- 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winn
Good article Aaron! I personally think that not only is Obama not very experienced, but he's also too new of a nationwide political figure for people to really KNOW him. We don't know what we're getting ourselves into with this guy... The same goes for Palin, but at least she's the VP.
I hope my fellow Floridians prove themselves brighter than the last 2 times. First, they couldn't push out a tiny paper chad weighing less than a fraction of a fraction of an ounce. Then, they claimed they couldn't find where to press the computer screen, even tho' the circle was about 4 INCHES in diameter. In this past primary, they had us all the way back to filling in blank circles with pencil. It's ridiculous.
Yeah, and where does he get all of this $ from
Thanks for all the comments. It's getting down to the final stretch of two weeks. I am excited to see how everything shakes out!