Topsy Turvy Central Race - AL Central Preview

It is amazing how just one person can impact an entire division.

Just a few weeks ago, the AL Central division would have been Minnesota's to lose. They had retained their entire roster from a year ago, they had the promise of Justin Morneau returning from an injury that prevented him from playing down the stretch, and they had made some significant upgrades to a division winning team. Still, the loss of Joe Nathan at the closer position creates a startling weakness in the defending division champs and opens the gates for the rest of the division to catch up in an already tight division.

Chicago White Sox

2009 Finish - 79-83 - 7.5 Games Back (3rd Place)

You can be assured of a few things when you look at the Chicago White Sox from year to year. First off, manager Ozzie Guillen is going to get the most out of his guys while simultaneously filling the media up with outlandish comments. Second, general manager Kenny Williams is going to do something inventive to put his team in contention, something that he has certainly done with his current roster.

Firstly, it would be a shame to say that the 2005 Champion White Sox were a product of small ball. The bats of Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye would have something different to say about that. Rather, they were a team that thrived on combining power with strong situational hitting and solid base running. The current roster is built to capitalize on that same theory. The additions of Juan Pierre at the top of the line-up, as well as the contact hitting Mark Teahen were solid moves in that direction. However, the run producing segment of the offense will depend on two players; Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin. Williams took a huge risk when he claimed Rios off waiver last season and ate that albatross contract, but it was calculated on the thought that with Rios still in his prime, he could produce again with a change of scenery. It didn't pay immediate dividends last year, but the White Sox are banking heavily that it will in 2010. Quentin lost a lot of last season to injury, but remains just a year removed from an MVP caliber season in 2008 and the thought across the league is that if he can stay healthy, he'll produce.

So while the offense is gelling, the pitching staff is where the White Sox will separate themselves from the rest of the division. You would be hard pressed to find a better group in the AL Central than the gentlemen the Sox trot out as a top four. The biggest piece of that group is undoubtedly Jake Peavy, who could be a major cog in a championship team, and was a huge move by Williams last season. Peavy's acquisition allows Mark Buerhle to slide into the number two spot in the rotation, where he is a better fit. Following them up with Gavin Floyd and John Danks doesn't hurt either. As of this writing, Freddie Garcia is set to be the number five starter and looked adequate down the stretch in 2009 to hold that spot. The big mystery will be at the back end of the bullpen, where Chicago gambled on J.J. Putz to set-up Bobby Jenks, and possibly push him if Putz proves to be healthy and dominating again.

All and all, this is a team that should be able to win a division that is perhaps the weakest in baseball. They have the right mix of clubhouse presence and on field talent to get the job done. Of course, this is also a team dependent of health too, so fortunes can dry up quickly enough also.

Cleveland Indians

2009 Finish - 65-97 - 21.5 Games Back (4th Place)

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Just three seasons removed from being within one win of the World Series, the Indians are but a mere shadow of that squad. Unfortunately, management sees just what we see, and rather than try to plug holes where needed, they opted to tear down and build again, just as they did at the early part of the decade. But in fairness, that rebuilding project netted them a good many pieces of that 2007 team, so that may be a good omen.

Offensively, this is not a bad squad. Led by Grady Sizemore, who will wisely be sliding down in the order to all him to help produce more runs, this team may still score at ease. To me, the Indians have to be encouraged by two particular players. First, the big improvement by Shin-Soo Choo gives the Indians a solid tandem in the outfield that can knock in and create run scoring opportunities. Secondly, the reemergence of Travis Hafner during the second half of 2009, has got to have them excited. It was a relatively small sample size, but being able to add his big bat back into the line-up could be a huge boon for them. Granted, he would have to stay healthy to do that, but one can dream right? The Indians still have questions at second base (Luis Valbuena), catcher (Lou Marson), and left field (Matt LaPorta) though that leaves them unsure of what kind of production they will get from those positions.

Pitching is a completely other story. Gone are the days when C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee held down the top two spots of the rotation. Here are the days when your top starter, Jake Westbrook, didn't pitch at all in 2009 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Follow him up with enigmatic Fausto Carmona and any combination of Aaron Laffey, David Huff, Jeremy Sowers, Carlos Carrasco, and Mitch Talbot and you could have an extremely inexperienced and ineffective pitching staff. Then you punctuate that with Kerry Wood as your closer and you can easily see why expectations in Cleveland are very low for 2010.

It probably was a good decision by Mark Shapiro to start over again, but it will be a few seasons before the youth movement in Cleveland pays dividends. They have a nice group of prospects under their wings now, and there's a good chance that they likely aren't done shedding salary in favor of future needs. It's just going to be a long season or two for Indians fans in the meantime.

Detroit Tigers

2009 Finish - 86-77 - 1 Game Back (2nd Place)

I can honestly say that when I sit back and look at the 2010 Detroit Tigers, that I am unsure as to what I am to expect from them. After the Granderson trade, I was sure this was a team that was moving to get younger and looking to build a core of talent for years to come. But then came the Damon and Valverde signings, and I lost track of what this team was trying to do.

Jim Leyland is going to have his hands full in 2010 with an offense that is simultaneously going to show its age and youth, and neither of which in a pretty fashion. Sure, they have a superstar in Miguel Cabrera, who will be looking to prove that his arrest at the end of last season is not the man he really is. People forget that Cabrera was still had another huge year despite the late season controversy, and considering he is still just 27 years old, he'd not going to taper off anytime soon. Beyond him though, everyone else is a mystery. Damon is coming off a huge year that was aided by the short porch at Yankee Stadium, so it remains to be seen if he'll translate to Comerica with similar or moderately declined numbers. Considering the Tigers opted to bring him in rather than give the full-time job to Ryan Raburn, who had a solid season in limited use last year, they are banking for a good year out of Damon. Scott Sizemore and Austin Jackson are going to be leaned on early to be producers, so it will be interesting to see how they respond. Then you have the combo of Carlos Guillen (DH) and Magglio Ordonez (RF) who are no longer the players that their salaries dictate they are, but are necessary pieces of the Tiger puzzle.

Like the Indians above, this is a team with huge questions on its pitching staff. Verlander is as solid as they come as an ace, so he's a quality starting point. Then you have Rick Porcello, who started out solid and went 14-9 in his rookie campaign, but given a year's worth of tape on him, the rest of the league may adapt to him pretty easily in 2010. After those two, it's a mystery. Max Scherzer is a quality pitcher, but many believe his arm belongs in the bullpen more than it does in the rotation. The trio of Jeremy Bonderman, Dontrelle Willis, and Nate Robertson have all struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness over the last two season and aren't to be counted on. The bullpen will likely be solid, with the acquisition of Valverde to close games, which will of bring an air Jose Mesa type attitude to Comerica.

It is easy to say the Tigers have their place in the division race, but given their moves in the offseason, it is also hard to see that they are serious at making a run at the title. The pitching staff in particular is not set-up to carry a team into the playoffs and likely won't in 2010.

Kansas City Royals

2009 Finish - 65-97 - 21.5 Games Back (4th Place)

What can you say about the Royals other than they have mastered the path of mediocrity? At times they've appeared to be on the right path, with a good infusion of youth and some smart moves to add veteran presence at budget friendly price. But regardless of perception, this is always a team that just can never seem to get itself over the hump and take the next step. Take for instance a season ago; you would imagine that having the Cy Young award winner would translate into a little more than the fifth pick in the June Draft. Still, that is how the cards fall for Kansas City, and unfortunately, it looks like it is the way they'll be dealt again in 2010.

Pitching is obviously the strong suit of the Royals, with having the reigning Cy Young award winner Zack Greinke as the anchor of your staff. The remainder of the starting unit is filled out with role players like Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, Kyle Davies, and young Luke Hochevar. Outside of Hochevar, this is a group of pitchers who have gotten the most out of their ability and have shown that they really belong right where they are; at the back end or the middle of a pitching rotation. They'll offer stability, but nothing dominant. The bullpen, flanked by Joakim Soria at closer, has improved from a year ago and should help pick up some of the slack.

The Royals made some interesting moves in the offseason to bolster an offense that scored the second fewest runs in the American League a year ago. The acquisition of Rick Ankiel gives the team a legitimate power threat in the outfield, as well as a gold glove caliber defender, which will help them bank against a season of injury and performance concerns with Jose Guillen. The only really good picture the offense saw in 2009 was the development of Billy Butler into a decent run producer at first base, although he probably fits better as a designated hitter. The team really needs to get Alex Gordon on track and producing if this line-up is going to score enough runs to support Greinke and company.

It would be difficult to sit here with a straight face and tell you that the Royals would compete in 2010. This is a team that made some small strides in the offseason to get better, but they are still a long way from competing, even in this division. Question is, will they turn the corner before they lose Greinke?

Minnesota Twins

2009 Finish - 87-76 - (1st Place)

It's strange really. You look at the depth chart of the Minnesota Twins and you see how they would be the favorite to win the division. They have solid performers at every position except third base, and they're led by perhaps the most exciting young players in the AL in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau. Yet, it takes an injury to the one position where they had no depth to really bring them down to Earth.

Offensively, this is as sound a club as they come. They have enough pop in the line-up to pair with solid situational hitting. Professional hitters like Morneau, Mauer, and Michael Cuddyer do what is needed of them to push runs across the plate. Add in solid piece like Denard Span, JJ Hardy, Orlando Hudson, and Jason Kubel and you have a pretty even line-up. Their only real weakness is at third base, where Brendan Harris and Nick Punto will share the duties, but even so, the two of them together should give the team enough production from that slot.

The amazing thing about the pitching staff for the Twins, and I think you can say this has been true for a number of seasons, is that they get the job done despite the fact that there is not a true ace or even number two starter amongst them. They all pitch within their means to keep the team in games and let the offense do its job. As mentioned above, the true hurt on this team comes from losing Joe Nathan at the end of the game. They'll likely go with a committee of Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, and Matt Guerrier at the start of the season. There have been rumors that they are considering shifting Francisco Liriano into the role, but he belongs in the rotation more than he does in the pen.

Ultimately, this is a team that could easily win this division, but to do so, they'll need to address the Nathan loss and do it early. If the committee doesn't work, they'll have to scrap it right away and trade to pick-up someone. Last year's improbable run isn't impossible to happen again, but having to catch two teams may be a lot more difficult than grabbing a sliding tiger by the tail.

Projected Finish

1.) Chicago White Sox

2.) Minnesota Twins

3.) Detroit Tigers

4.) Kansas City Royals

5.) Cleveland Indians

Sources:

AL Central Standings, MLB.com

Chicago White Sox, MLB.com

Cleveland Indians, MLB.com

Detroit Tigers, MLB.com

Kansas City Royals, MLB.com

Minnesota Twins, MLB.com