Toronto Blue Jays' Much-Needed List for 2007

As is often the case, you get what you pay for--Unless your name happens to be George, and I don't mean Kostanza.

In the often-predictable AL East, the Boston Red Sox ($120,100 million) and New York Yankees ($194,663 million) 2006 salaries show why they are the favorites to win the division. However, with a payroll of almost half of the superior '06 Red Sox and a little over 1/3 of the last year's Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays - on paper - can only hope to be competitive in the division. Though Toronto will not come close to winning the title, it should definitely compete with and possibly finish ahead of overpaid New York for the runner-up position.

It's a safe bet that no team in baseball has more of a drop from its top starter to rest of its rotation. The Blue Jays put all-world Roy Halladay on the mound, and he virtually silences opposing bats on most nights. The Jays lost their second starter, Ted Lilly, to the Chicago Cubs. That depletion should haunt the Canadian bombers. Halladay was the baseball's first pitcher to reach 15 wins in 2006, but ended the year with just 16 wins. If healthy for an entire season, it wouldnt not be surprising to see the 6-6 right-hander post 22-24 wins.

Following Lock Roy, the fall begins. AJ Burnett is the only widely-known name among the other expected four starters. Following Burnett, John Thompson, Shaun Marcum or Craig Janssen, and Gustavo Chacin will carry Toronto's hopes. After Burnett's 3.98 ERA and 10 wins, the other starters combined for a '06 ERA just above 5. Furthermore, best of the rest, Chacin's nine wins make him look like a 20-game winner.

The same droppoff from frontline man to the rest of the rotation can be said of the bullpen. Following 65 appearances, and a microscopic ERA of 1.37, closer B.J. Ryan returns to save any possible victories, as he did 38 times a year ago. Unfortunately for manager John Gibbons, that is all of the good news regarding the 'pen. Setup-man Justin Speier has changed uniforms and will pitch for the Angels this season. Brandon League hopes to relish in Speier's vacated role. In 33 appearances a season ago, League worked a very respectable 2.53 ERA. Therefore, he has proven that he is capable of doing the job. Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Dustin McGowan and Brian Tallet will probably round out the bullpen, with a couple of uncertain rookies tossed in.

Unlike the pitching staff, the Jays seem more than capable offensively. Reed Johnson's .338 average of a year ago returns to the top of the lineup. He will be followed by his outfield mates, Alex Rios in left and Mr. Everything-Vernon Wells in center. Though both have significant pop in their bat, Wells' 32 Big Flies and 106 RBI prove that he is the more explosive of the two. Then, newly acquired DH Frank Thomas will bat cleanup. Hoping to repeat his 39-home run performance of a year ago, Thomas will benefit from batting behind Rios and before longball-threat Troy Glaus. The third baseman's 38 dingers in '06 mean that Toronto's 3-4-5 hitters each topped the 30-bomb plateau (A Murderer's Row--Canadian Style?). With capable Lyle Overbay at first and ever-improving Gregg Zaun behind the plate, the top seven hitters should account for a lot of discrepancies on the pitching staff. Rounding out the lineup will be the middle infielders. Though not quite Punch-and-Judy hitters, the pair is not going to win games for the club, either. While second baseman Aaron Hill batted .291 last season, he puts as much fear in opposing managers as newly-acquired shortstop Royce Clayton's below-average BA and 2 HR of a year ago.

With a pretty potent lineup--for the most part-- and a questionable pitching staff, expect to see a roller-coaster type of season just north of the border. If the Blue Jays are still in a pennant chase in late-July, expect to see some promising prospects traded for a new double-play combination. Money says that Clayton will be the first to go.

PREDICTION: 82-80, second place (surprisingly, barely ahead of New York)