Tropical Storm Hanna Turns Towards the Southeast Coast

The 2008 hurricane season's 8^th named storm, Tropical Storm Hanna, has changed direction and is now predicted to head to the Southeastern coast. As recently as yesterday afternoon, the storm was anticipated to take a circuitous route into the Gulf of Mexico, perhaps brushing the southernmost tip of Florida. However, current prediction models shown on the National Hurricane Center's website, show the storm bypassing Florida and taking aim at the Southeast, somewhere between the central coast of Georgia and the southern North Carolina coast.

Tropical Storm Hanna is currently (2 pm EDT, 8/31/08) packing winds of 45 miles per hour with a forward motion of about 12 miles per hour. The slow moving storm is presently located southeast of the Bahamas and has plenty of time to gather strength and develop into a hurricane in the next few days. The storm is expected to strengthen to hurricane status by Thursday, Sept. 4; however, the maximum wind speed will be determined by variables such as upper level winds, forward movement, and the amount of time the storm stays in the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The surface temperature of the water in the Gulf Stream is typically in the 80-85 degree range during this time of the year and significantly affects the size and intensity of these storms.

In addition, of utmost importance to those living in the projected path of this storm, is the position and strength of the upper level high-pressure system that has protected the Southeastern seaboard so far this season. If this high-pressure system dissolves faster than anticipated, Hanna could certainly take a more westerly track and thereby open up Florida's east coast as a possible target. According to NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS TPC-5 by Eric S. Blake, et. al, "Forty percent of all U.S. hurricanes and major hurricanes hit Florida."

Historically, the most active period for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic is August-October and it is not unheard of to have four named storms active simultaneously, as seen during the 2005 season. Although the 1992 tropical cyclone season got off to a slow start, the first named storm of the season, Hurricane Andrew, a Category 4 storm, devastated south Florida on August 24, 1992.

The National Hurricane Center's tropical weather outlook shows two storms currently active, Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Hanna, with two more areas of interest. The area with the most probability of developing into a named storm is currently located off the Cape Verde Islands. Should formation occur, this storm will be named Ike.