Two Potentials in the Wide-Open GOP Primary

The political pendulum has swung back and forth with significant volatility over the last decade or so, with the political landscape favoring both sides of the aisle at different points. The 2012 presidential campaign season is certain to bring some surprises, especially with no clear-cut favorite for the Republican nomination.

Two potential Republican candidates made their names in Minnesota, one as the state's former governor, and the other as a state and U.S. senator. Both are currently exploring a run for the 2012 nomination, and while neither is leading in the polls, political insiders predict that both have a chance to be in the conversation long into the primary season.

Tim Pawlenty

Pawlenty, who at times is referred to as "T-Paw," last served two terms as governor of Minnesota. Ever since announcing in 2009 that he would not seek a third term as governor, Pawlenty has hinted at making a run for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination. Most recently, Pawlenty announced the formation of an exploratory committee in a video message on Facebook.

According to Pawlenty, the exploratory period will not last long, and in the meantime, he has been investing in Iowa and New Hampshire, seeking to make an early name for himself in the Republican primaries. Polling behind some other GOP hopefuls, including a few who ran in 2008, Pawlenty will likely need to make an early splash in the primary season to earn the reputation and credibility necessary to win the nomination.

Taking a page out of Mike Huckabee's Iowa Primary win in 2008, Pawlenty is working to tap the state's religious conservatives by reaching out to a network of pastors and religious groups. Of course, he's not alone in taking up this strategy. At a recent pastors' conference in Iowa, which Pawlenty missed due to a family vacation, Haley Barbour, Michele Bachmann, and Newt Gengrich, all GOP potentials, were in attendance.

The Pawlenty camp has been quiet about fund-raising efforts to this point, and likely will be until after the exploratory period has been completed and Pawlenty makes an official announcement for a run at the White House.

Michele Bachmann

Like Pawlenty, Bachmann's political rise happened in Minnesota, as a state senator from 2000 to 2007, and then as a representative in the U.S. House, where she currently serves. Riding her popularity as a favorite of the Tea Party and founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, Bachmann's camp has indicated that she will be putting together an exploratory committee soon, possibly in June.

In the GOP polls, Bachmann, like Pawlenty, is behind some candidates who have the advantage of substantial previous media attention. In hopes of making an early mark on the primary season, she is also focusing on Iowa, where she has some connections. Bachmann was born in Waterloo, Iowa, moving to Minnesota during her younger years. In an effort to gain a presence in Iowa, Bachmann is forming a team there and will do the same in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

While her name is a relatively new addition to GOP hopefuls, Bachmann has a reputation for being an excellent fundraiser, and her ties to the Tea Party will further assist her fundraising efforts. In winning reelection to the U.S. House in Minnesota's 6th District by 13 percentage points, Bachmann raised over $13 million, the largest sum for any U.S. House candidate.

Both Pawlenty and Bachmann are trailing other GOP candidates, including Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich. However, much of the disparity is a result of how long the other potential candidates have been in the media spotlight for one reason or another. The gap may close as the primary season moves on and the candidates begin to differentiate themselves on the issues. Pawlenty has been holding steady over the last four to six months, while Bachmann has gone from relative anonymity to actually passing Pawlenty over the last six weeks or so.

While neither candidate is close to being a favorite for the GOP nomination, and neither is anyone else, Bachmann may have the advantage simply due to her fundraising potential and her close ties to the motivated Tea Party.