UEFA Euro 2012 Qualifying: Predictions & Analysis

With Euro 2012 less than two years away, the event's qualifying round is set to commence in earnest. In a span of twelve months, 49 European countries will compete for one of 14 non-reserved spots in the UEFA Euro finals. The teams are divided evenly among nine groups, with the top two finishers automatically advance to the next round. As European teams are highly skilled, one should expect many competitive contests. In this article, I will analyze each of Euro 2012 qualifying groups and offer predictions on which teams will advance to the finals.

1. Group A [Germany, Turkey, Austria, Belgium, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan]
Prediction: Germany, Turkey

Consistency is one thing Germany is renowned for. One can't recall the last time the 3-time Euro champion failed to qualify for the finals of a major international event. The country has advanced to the Euro finals 10 consecutive times, accumulating one of the best competitive records. The qualifying streak is most likely to continue as Germany, on the heel of a terrific World Cup, looks set to easily win its Euro 2012 group. Although there are several solid teams in the group, none of them have the talents to match a youthful but highly skilled German squad. The other teams will most likely be fighting for the second spot.

The two contenders for Group A's second qualifying berth are Turkey and Belgium. Although both teams have achieved some success in international football, neither team is a top-tier football country. As Turkey and Belgium are pretty even in most aspects, advancement will depend on how they fare in head-to-head matchups. If I had to pick one to advance, I would pick Turkey as the country has performed slightly better than Belgium in recent contests. Form, after all, does matter in football.

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2. Group B [Russia, Slovakia, Republic of Ireland, Macedonia, Armenia, Andorra]
Prediction: Russia, Slovakia

Group B is one of the most open groups in the qualifying phase. Russia is widely perceived as the weakest seed among the top teams, as the country (aside from the lone semifinal achievement in 2008) has not performed well at recent major tournaments. Yet, Russia--led by Arsenal's Andrei Arshavin--is widely acknowledged as one of Europe's most talented teams. While the young squad will face stiff challenges from the likes of Slovakia and Ireland, it is quite plausible that the team will advance to the finals and perhaps win the group. Slovakia, buoyant by its historic victory over Italy at the World Cup, should have a good chance to advance as well.

3. Group C [Italy, Estonia, Serbia, Northern Ireland, Slovenia, Faroe Islands]
Prediction: Serbia, Italy

Group C is likely the most competitive group in the qualifying stage, as top seed Italy is in extreme turmoil following a miserable World Cup campaign. Unfortunately, the team's fortune is unlikely to improve as it will have to overcome four dangerous teams for a berth in Euro 2012 finals. The top team among the contenders is Serbia. The 1960 Euro runner-up has enjoyed an uneven record in international football, performing well in some tournaments and underperforming in others. After failing to qualify for the last two finals, the White Eagles are as hungry as ever to rebuild their reputation as one of Europe's top teams. One should not be surprised if Serbia is to win the group over Italy.

4. Group D [France, Romania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Albania, Luxembourg]
Prediction: Romania, France

Euro 2012 marks the first major tournament for France since its fiasco at the 2010 World Cup. The country has a lot to prove at this championship, though the French are likely to face a tough obstacle in the Romanians. Both teams see the Euro tournament as an opportunity to return to relevancy, and are likely to fight fiercely not just for a berth in the finals but also for first place in the group. As the remaining teams in Group D are minnows in international football, the two teams will look to put lots of goals on the board. Still, whether or not goal-starving France and Romania can accomplish this remains to be seen.

5. Group E [Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Hungary, Moldova, San Marino]
Prediction: Netherlands, Sweden

The Netherlands hasn't had much problem winning its qualifying group in recent competitions. The streak is expected to continue as the Orangemen are likely to easily win their group once again. This leaves Sweden, Hungary, and Finland fighting for the second spot in Group E.

6. Group F [Croatia, Greece, Israel, Latvia, Georgia, Malta]
Prediction: Croatia, Greece

Group F is another highly competitive group. Four strong teams will fight it out for two berths in the finals. Both Israel and Latvia have had opportunities to qualify for major football finals, only to be edged out at the last minute by more accomplished teams. They will be extremely motivated in their attempt to upset Croatia and Greece, the two favorites in the group. Unfortunately for them, they are likely to once again be overmatched by the talented Croats and Greeks. It may go down to the last of the group matches, but no upsets are expected.

7. Group G [England, Switzerland, Bulgaria, Wales, Montenegro]
Prediction: England, Switzerland

Group G is perhaps the easiest group in the qualifying phase. Bulgaria, Wales, and Montenegro are unlikely to challenge England and Switzerland. For the Englishmen, this is a good opportunity to refine their tactics and to earn much needed confident points against much weaker opponents. For the Swiss, this will be further validation that Switzerland is one of Europe's top teams.

8. Group H [Portugal, Denmark, Norway, Cyprus, Iceland]
Prediction: Denmark, Portugal

Similar to the previous group, Portugal and Denmark are widely expected to dominate this group though Norway may spring an upset or two. The highlights from this group will probably be the highly anticipated matches between the top two teams. As Portugal has struggled in the qualifying phase in recent years, the Danes are the favorite to win the two games and Group H.

9. Group I [Spain, CzechRepublic, Scotland, Lithuania, Liechtenstein]
Prediction: Spain, Czech Republic

Defending Euro champion Spain is the overwhelming favorite to win Group I and retain the title. The second spot will be contested between the Czech Republic and Scotland. As the two teams did not qualify for the World Cup, both see this opportunity as a chance to salvage pride. On paper, the Czech Republic is a strong favorite over Scotland. However, football has always been a game of surprises. How each team fares against Spain will probably decide which one is the group's runner up.