UFC 107: Analysis of the Top of the Main Card

Following up what was an amazing end of the year card at UFC 92: The Ultimate 2008, the UFC follows up with another stellar series of fights to wrap up 2009. 2009 was an exciting and topsy-turvy year for the UFC, and for an example of that you do not have to look any further than the plights of Frank Mir and B.J. Penn.

Frank Mir ended 2008 with the greatest victory of his career, absolutely dominating Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 92 to claim the interim heavyweight title. But just seven months later at UFC 100, Mir was himself dominated and beaten up by Brock Lesnar in a fight which was more memorable for Lesnar's post-fight activities rather than the fight itself.

B.J. Penn started off 2009 with a rematch with welterweight champ Georges St. Pierre. GSP had won a close split decision in their last matchup, but this one was not as competitive as GSP wore down and dominated the smaller Penn. Penn then bounced back and defeated dangerous Kenny Florian in August at UFC 101 to keep his lightweight title.

Now it all comes full circle for Penn and Mir at UFC 107, as they both have a chance to end their years on high notes.

Here is how I see the two fights at the top of the main card going:

B.J. Penn v. Diego Sanchez

Sanchez might just be the toughest challenge for B.J. at 155 lbs yet. "The Nightmare" is a large 155er, who actually competed at middleweight on the Ultimate Fighter show, and then worked his way up the welterweight ladder before losing two competitive fights to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. Sanchez is a well-rounded fighter who always has had great cardio and an impressive ground game. His striking has shown great improvement as well. Diego at his best is an aggressive fighter who likes to cut the ring off and stifle his opponents with a relentless attack.

Penn himself is a large fighter at 155, and has held the welterweight title in the past. But he is at his best at 155 lbs. "The Prodigy" is probably the most well-rounded pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. He has amazing boxing, good wrestling, and a top-notch ground game.

The key in any fight is to identify the fighter who can dictate how they want the fight to take place. And that edge has to go to B.J. B.J. has the wrestling to keep the fight standing if he chooses, or to take it to the ground if he wants to do that as well. The edge in striking has to go to B.J., and B.J. has the better ju-jit-su game as well if the fight goes to the ground.

Diego will probably look to come out fast and take the center of the octagon, but he needs to be extremely careful against a savvy veteran like Penn. If Diego comes out fast and aggressive looking to trade strikes, I would not be surprised at all if B.J. immediately looks to take advantage with a quick take-down. Diego will be in for his own nightmare if he is on his back with B.J. on top of him, especially early in the fight.

If Diego shows B.J. more respect and starts the fight with a more measured pace, expect B.J. to do the same and use his jabs to keep Diego at bay and pick him apart with his stand-up game.

People like to point out cardio as B.J.'s main weakness, but I think that is overblown. In his recent fights, the only time I felt B.J. had a problem with cardio was against much larger wrestlers who could overwhelm him (GSP and Matt Hughes). Otherwise, I do not feel B.J.'s cardio has been an issue, and I do not think it will be in this fight.

Remember, Diego has never been stopped in a fight. If B.J. does not submit him early, then I expect this to be a five round war that will end with B.J. keeping the lightweight belt.

B.J. via decision is my prediction.

Frank Mir v. Cheick Kongo

If I were a Frank Mir fan, I would be a tad concerned as to whether he is looking past Kongo to a rematch with Brock Lesnar. In fact, Frank has gone as far as to say that he would like to rip off Kongo's arm just to scare Lesnar. Mir's Mortal-Combat fantasies aside, this could be a dangerous game he is playing. Kongo is nobody's stepping stone, and is a top of the foodchain heavyweight. Some fighters can lose their forcus and stray from the game plan if you engage in a war of words. Mir does seem to have gotten under Kongo's skin, but my impression of Kongo is that he would be a more dangerous fighter if he is angry.

Of course, when all the juvenile back-and-forth is done, Mir will have to face Kongo in the octagon, and this will be a compelling matchup. Kongo has shown a desire to finish fights via vicious ground and pound lately, but that might not be wise against a guy with as good of a guard as Frank Mir.

But again, the difference in this fight will be Kongo's lack of wrestling ability. Unfortunately for the Frenchman, I do not think this is even an issue of him not preparing or working his wrestling. He just has a horrid build for a wrestler. Now I know "horrid build" and Cheick Kongo are not terms you hear together often. But he is a top-heavy guy that has a high center of gravity. He likes to hold his hands up fairly high, which makes him even more vulnerable to take-downs. And he is not very nimble when looking to avoid getting taken down.

Mir will not win a striking war with Kongo, but Mir is a cerebral fighter who has the ability to use his stand up to eventually work for a take-down. Once the fight goes to the ground, it will be a quick submission for Mir. Looks like Mir will get a chance to rip off Kongo's arm after all. Let's hope he does not choose to eat it afterwards.

Mir via armbar submission in the first round is my prediction.