UFC 107: Predictions

With UFC 107 right around the corner it's time to make some predictions.

Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve - Heavyweights
This is Paul Buentello's return to the UFC, after fighting for Affliction and Strikeforce before that. Out of his last 5 fights he has won 4 four of them, most recently against Kirill Sidelnikov at Affliction: Day of Reckoning. Buentello was able to control all three rounds against Sidelnikov, ending with the doctor stopping the fight after Buentello knocked Sidelnikov's mouth guard out with a hard jab.

UFC 107 will be Stepfan Struve's fourth fight in the UFC, previously beating Chase Gormley and Denis Stojnic both by submission. In his UFC debut fight at UFC 95 he lost against Junior dos Santos by a technical knockout. In his last fight at UFC 104 he was able to submit Chase Gormley with little trouble in the first round.

My prediction is the Stefan Struve will be able to submit Paul Buentello for the victory.

Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida - Lightweights
Kenny Florian is coming off of a tough loss against BJ Penn. Penn is considered by many to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in Mixed Martial Arts, so making it to the 4^th round against him is nothing to be ashamed of. Since making the switch to Lightweight Florian has only lost against Sean Sherk and BJ Penn. He has won 7 Lightweight fights, and only one of them went to decision. Florian is a fighter who finishes fights and finishes them well.

Clay Guida has fought 9 fights with the UFC but has so far lost 4 of them, most recently against Diego Sanchez. Of his victories he has finished only one fight the rest of them going to split decision, with the exception of his victory over Mac Danzig which was unanimous decision. He was able to finish Samy Schiavo with strikes.

My prediction is that Kenny Florian will be able to defeat Clay Guida by a submission.

Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce - Welterweights
Jon Fitch is hands down the second best Welterweight fighting today next to only Georges St-Pierre, the only person he has lost to since fighting in the UFC. Fitch has managed to knockout Thiago Alves, and beat Diego Sanchez by decision. Most recently he has defeated Paulo Thiago by decision. His weakest point is his inability to finish fights, leaving most of them to decision.

Mikie Pierce is relatively new to the UFC, only having fought once at UFC Fight Night 19, but is definitely not new to professional Mixed Martial Arts. Pierce has 9 professional wins with only 1 loss back in 2009 against Nathan Coy by decision. Pierce has a tendency to win by technical knockout, but similar to Fitch often lets the fight go to decision. After beating Brock Larson at UFC Fight Night 19 Pierce has proven that he is a contender.

My prediction is that Jon Fitch will be able to defeat Mike Pierce by decision.

Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo - Heavyweights
Frank Mir is the second best Heavyweight in the UFC promotion, second to only the Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. In the last 3 years Mir has lost only to Lesnar, and even has beaten him once by submission. Mir's biggest weakness is that he is in a division now being run by 265 pound giants while he weighs in at 245 pounds.

Cheick Kongo, like Mir, is a UFC veteran. After 10 fights with the promotion he has lost only three times, all by decision. Kongo most recently fought at UFC 99 against the undefeated Cain Velasquez where he suffered a loss. While Kongo was able to put up a strong fight he suffered an obvious loss against Velasquez. While I would not consider Kongo a top title contender for the Heavyweight division, a win against Mir will definitely put him in that position.

My prediction is that Frank Mir will defeat Cheick Kongo by a technical knockout.

B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez - Lightweight Championship
B.J. Penn is not only the best lightweight in the world, but also one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world. Penn has not lost a Lightweight fight in the UFC, since UFC 35 in 2002 against Jens Pulver. Penn most recently defended the Lightweight Championship against Kenny Florian at UFC 101. Penn won every round against Florian before finally submitting him in a rear naked choke in the 4^th round. Penn won the Lightweight Championship from Joe Stevenson and has defended it against Sean Sherk and Florian.

Diego Sanchez only recently made the switch from Welterweight to Lightweight 10 months ago. Since then he has fought two fights in the division, winning both of them. The first fight was against Joe Stevenson where Sanchez won by unanimous decision. The fight between the two also won fight of the night. His most recent fight at the Ultimate Fighter 9 finale was against Clay Guida in a very close fight. Diego Sanchez was able to barely win the fight in split decision. The fight went back and forth for the 3 rounds and won fight of the night.

My prediction is that BJ Penn will win the fight in split decision against Diego Sanchez in a fight that will be much closer than many expect.

Sources:
UFC, "UFC 107 PENN vs SANCHEZ." UFC.com
Sherdog, "Paul "The Headhunter" Buentello." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Stefan "Skyscraper" Struve." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Kenny "KenFlo" Florian." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Clay "The Carpenter" Guida." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Jon Fitch." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Mike Pierce." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Frank Mir." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Cheick Kongo." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "B.J. "The Prodigy" Penn." Sherdog.com
Sherdog, "Diego "Nightmare" Sanchez." Sherdog.com