UFC 117: Anderson Silva Vs. Chael Sonnen Preview

Anderson Silva coasted his way into the record books last April with a confusing and lackluster victory over Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu ace Demian Maia. Everyone from Dana White to casual fans were insulted as the UFC's Middleweight Champion made a mockery of not only himself but the entire sport on his way to a five round decision victory when he could have ended the fight much earlier.

Anderson Silva's performance left a question mark riding on his back. Who could challenge this long reigning champion enough to force him to be motivated? The answer is Chael Sonnen. Sonnen was written off as a contender when he was submitted by Demian Maia just over a year ago, but has since racked up victories over Dan Miller, Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt to state his claim as the undisputed number two Middleweight. Can he keep that momentum going, or will Anderson Silva disappoint fans once again?

Anderson "the Spider" Silva (26-4) vs. Chael Sonnen (24-10-1)
UFC Middleweight Title Fight

Last Fight for Anderson Silva: Defeated Demian Maia by Unanimous Decision at UFC 112.
Last Fight for Chael Sonnen: Defeated Nate Marquardt by Unanimous Decision at UFC 109.

Rundown: Chael Sonnen has made sure every knows he does not respect Anderson Silva in the lead up to this fight. Not only does he not respect Silva, but Chael Sonnen apparently does not respect Silva's training partners, Silva's idols or anyone who might have talked to Anderson Silva at some point.

Chael Sonnen's trash talk is generating interest in a match that would otherwise be viewed as another one sided beatdown. Sonnen has been known as a one dimensional wrestler for most of his career, even laying disrespect for the entire sport of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu in prior interviews (not surprisingly, he has tapped out several times).

In his fight against Nate Marquardt, Sonnen showed a great top game and improved striking, while stifling Marquardt's Jiu-Jitsu game. It certainly was a convincing victory, and left no doubt who deserved a title shot.

A title shot against Anderson Silva should hardly be considered a reward for a job well done, though. In 11 UFC fights Anderson Silva has gone undefeated, taking out contenders like Forrest Griffin (at Light Heavyweight), Dan Henderson, Rich Franklin and Nate Marquardt. What has many fans wondering if the champion has any motivation left to fight is a string of very unimpressive victories over opponents he should have slaughtered.

The Demian Maia fight has been well documented, with Anderson dancing around his opponent for three rounds before resorting to tactics like hiding behind the referee. Anderson Silva also let Thales Leites, another Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu expert, go the full five rounds when it should have never made it out of the first. Patrick Cote also took Anderson deep, reaching the third round before succumbing to a knee injury. The Cote fight is the only reasonable one, as Patrick Cote is notorious for his cast iron jaw.

Prediction: Anderson Silva does his best when opponents press the action. Forrest Griffin, James Irvin and Chris Leben were all embarassed in short order thanks to playing Anderson's game, while Demian Maia and Thales Leites were made to look like fools when they avoided it.

Chael Sonnen might have an advantage, however, in that Anderson has shown signs of weakness when taking on wrestlers. Dan Henderson wrestled Anderson Silva effectively for the first round of their fight before abandoning his gameplan and getting submitted, which was also very similar to Anderson's fight against Travis Lutter.

As far as MMA-adapted wrestlers, Chael Sonnen ranks among the best but has shown weakness with grapplers in the past. Anderson Silva is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, so Sonnen likely will not make it far on the ground. That is, if the fight gets that far. If Chael Sonnen wants to push the pace of the fight, he better be prepared to eat some knees when he shoots in for the inevitable takedown. Anderson Silva by TKO in the second round.

Jon Fitch (22-3, 1 NC) vs. Thiago "the Pitbull" Alves (16-6)

Last Fight for Jon Fitch: Defeated Ben Saunders by Unanimous Decision at UFC 111. Saunders was a late replacement for Thiago Alves, who pulled out due to a brain injury.
Last Fight for Thiago Alves: Lost to Georges St. Pierre by Unanimous Decision in a UFC Welterweight Title fight at UFC 100.

Rundown: This fight has been scheduled and re-scheduled so many times that it is almost not worth writing a preview for fear that it moves again. The fight was originally scheduled for UFC 107 before a knee injury forced Thiago Alves to withdraw, then for UFC 111 where a pre-fight CAT scan caught a brain irregularity and Alves was forced to withdraw again. A proposed date at UFC 115 also fell through.

With over a year off and numerous injuries along the way, ring rust to Thiago Alves is a very real possibility. Jon Fitch is not the kind of fighter you want to be in there against when you have had a long layoff. Fitch can wrestle any fighter (except for Georges St. Pierre) to a decision and win, and has no trouble keeping things ugly even if the fans do not like it.

The whole reason this fight was scheduled was to give Thiago Alves a chance to avenge a previous loss to Jon Fitch. Fitch finished Alves in that fight, but both a very different fighters now. Thiago Alves was on a warpath before facing Georges St. Pierre, while Jon Fitch has tried to search for a better identity than "GSP-lite" in the highly competitive UFC Welterweight division.

The winner of this fight would surely be the world's number two Welterweight, and a win for Jon Fitch could mean another crack at the title.

Prediction: The layoff is going to hurt Thiago Alves severely coming in against a very prepared Jon Fitch. Alves will prove to be more of a match than the last time around, but Jon Fitch is too good of a wrestler for nearly anyone to handle. Given that Jon Fitch is a Jiu-Jitsu black belt as well, whereas Alves is only a purple belt, the grappling advantage is huge. Jon Fitch by (yet another) unanimous decision.

Clay "the Carpenter" Guida (26-11) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (14-4)

Last Fight for Clay Guida: Defeated Shannon Gugerty by Submission (Arm Triangle) at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones.
Last Fight for Rafael dos Anjos: Defeated Terry Etim by Submission (Armbar) at UFC 112.

Rundown: This is the kind of fight that you just know the UFC lined up so put on one hell of a show. Clay Guida's endless gas tank, win or lose, always results in an entertaining fight and Rafael dos Anjos has been a game opponent when it comes to great fights.

Clay Guida is settling back into his role as gamekeeper after a brief flirt with the top of the UFC's Lightweight division against contenders Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian. In the past Guida has proven to be excellent in the role, with only fighters with real potential able to get past the Illinois wildman.

Rafael dos Anjos has quietly built up a nice resume with wins over Terry Etim, Rob Emerson and Kyle Bradley, but has faltered against middle-tier fighters like Tyson Griffin and Jeremy Stephens. Dos Anjos is clearly ready for a step up in competition, but Clay Guida might be a bigger step than most anticipate.

Prediction: A fighter needs a good gas tank if they hope to compete with Clay Guida, something which Rafael dos Anjos has shown quite a few times in the Octagon. Guida has never been a refined fighter, but has fooled opponents into believing he is less technically sound in the past. In reality, Guida has fairly crisp boxing and a good wrestling game, but has shown a weakness for giving up his back. Dos Anjos has decent Jiu-Jitsu, but Guida is good at controlling the pace, especially as the fight wears on. Clay Guida by split decision.

Matt Hughes (44-7) vs. Ricardo Almeida (12-3)

Last Fight for Matt Hughes: Defeated Renzo Gracie by TKO in the 3^rd round at UFC 112.
Last Fight for Ricardo Almeida: Defeated Matt Brown by Submission (Rear Naked Choke) in the 2^nd round to successfully make his Welterweight debut at UFC 111.

Rundown: Matt Hughes age might be catching up with him, but his inactivity over the past few years have made it hard to tell. Hughes looked good in beating Matt Serra at UFC 98, but looked clumsy kickboxing with Renzo Gracie as both fighters did not want to touch the ground.

Ricardo Almeida is one of the better known Gracie disciples and will look to avenge Renzo and Royce Gracie's losses to the former Division I wrestler. This fight represents the first time in years that Almeida has stepped up his level of competition, and facing former UFC Welterweight champion Matt Hughes might be a tall task.

Prediction: This fight, pitting wrestler Matt Hughes against talented grappler Ricardo Almeida, will probably look very similar to Hughes fight against Renzo Gracie. Hughes is no idiot when it comes to gameplanning, and knows that testing a jiu-jitsu black belt on the ground is a risky proposition. This will probably be a sloppy kickboxing match until Hughes smells blood, but if he gets in trouble standing this fight will hit the mat quickly. Hughes has great submission defense, so tapping out does not seem likely. Matt Hughes by split decision.

"Big Country" Roy Nelson (15-4) vs. Junior "Cigano" dos Santos (11-1)

Last Fight for Roy Nelson: Defeated Stefan Struve by KO in the 1^st round at UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Gomi.
Last Fight for Junior dos Santos: Defeated Gabriel Gonzaga by KO in the 1^st round at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones.

Rundown: Roy Nelson has looked impressive since coasting to the Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights title. With two back-to-back first round knockouts, one to the impossibly tall Stefan Struve, Roy Nelson has certainly made a case for fans to know his name.

Junior dos Santos has taken a quieter road to the top, beating such names as Fabricio Werdum, Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop and Gabriel Gonzaga to become a top ranked UFC Heavyweight.

Dos Santos has yet to be tested on the ground, and his fight against Gabriel Gonzaga did not last long enough for it to hit the mat. No fighter has thus far been able to handle Junior dos Santos' boxing, so the ground might be the only place opponents have to win.

Luckily Roy Nelson is a jiu-jitsu black belt, so his venue of choice should be the ground. Nelson has been a knockout artist so far in his UFC career, but has struggled in the past with power punchers like Andrei Arlovski. Dos Santos skilled boxing might be too much for Nelson if he cannot reach safety on the ground.

Prediction: Roy Nelson is a tough fighter to judge thanks to his unorthodox physique for a Heavyweight. Being short and portly normally works against you when fighting giants, but Roy Nelson has found a formula that works and knows how to throw that formidable stomach into a punch. Trading with Junior dos Santos for too long is a death wish, though, and Nelson would be foolish to let the fight stay standing. Dos Santos is an unproven commodity on the ground, and Roy Nelson's black belt credentials would seem to indicate he has the advantage there.

If Junior dos Santos turns out to have a better ground game than anyone has anticipated, then Roy Nelson is done for. Nothing against "Big Country," but Junior dos Santos has been clearly a path to the UFC Heavyweight title for some time and Roy Nelson is going to be just another victim. Junior dos Santos by second round TKO.