Unbreakable NHL Records

The National Hockey League's official website recently ran a story about which hockey records are the most unbreakable. The author presented a set of records he feels will never be broken, such as Glenn Hall's 502 consecutive complete games.

While the author is correct about that one, I disagree with a number of his other assessments. So here's a list of five NHL hockey records and my opinion regarding whether they are likely to be eclipsed or will stand forever.

I'm using "unbreakable" in quotes because I think many of them will, in fact, be broken.

"Unbreakable" NHL record: Most points in a career
Current record: 2,857 by Wayne Gretzky
Odds of being broken: 65% chance

People point to Gretzky's point total as a record that will never be broken, and if you look at the career scoring charts, it's easy to draw that conclusion. Gretzky scored nearly 3,000 points, while no other player even reached 2,000 (Mark Messier is second with 1,887).

But further examination reveals that record is not as untouchable as it would seem. Mario Lemieux absolutely could have surpassed 2,857 had he not been beset with injury problems throughout his career. Lemieux scored 1,723 points in only 915 games, a 1.88 points-per-game pace only slightly behind Gretzky's 1.92, while missing more than 600 games due to injury and early retirement.

Obviously, the current NHL game doesn't see as much scoring as the high-flying games of the '80s, when Gretzky thrived. But that sort of thing is cyclical, and it's inevitable that at some point the league will open up and go back to having guys score in excess of 150 points a season.

If that happens, one guy to watch is Sidney Crosby of the Penguins, who already has 506 points and is still just 23 years old. Suppose Crosby plays into his early 40s like Messier and Ron Francis. Averaging 100 points a season over the next 19 years would put Crosby at 2,400 points. Averaging more than that could put him in Gretzky's neighborhood.

I'm not predicting Crosby will surpass 2,857, but the numbers at least make it feasible. Heck, Messier averaged barely a point a game and almost got to 2,000. All it takes is longevity. Crosby or any other superstar who starts as a teenager and plays at least 20 seasons has a definite mathematical shot to surpass Gretzky if the high-scoring NHL era returns.

"Unbreakable" NHL record: Most saves in a game by a goalie
Current record: 80 by Sam LoPresti (1941)
Odds of being broken: 90% chance

This one's pretty much a slam dunk to be broken, and I'm shocked the NHL.com writer included it as an "unbreakable" NHL record. Obviously it would take a multiple-overtime game for this one to be broken, but we see plenty of multiple-overtime games in the NHL playoffs every year.

Just three years ago, Roberto Luongo stopped 72 shots in an overtime victory (a fact the NHL.com author conveniently forgets to mention.) Kelly Hrudey stopped 73 in a 1987 game. In 2008, an AHL minor league goalie stopped 98 shots in a five-OT game. Every indication points to the 80-save mark being toppled eventually.

"Unbreakable" NHL record: Highest plus-minus in a season
Current record: +124 by Bobby Hull in 1971
Odds of being broken: 5% chance

Never say never, but the single-season plus/minus record is likely to stand for a long, long time. It's amazing to think that in 1970-71, Bobby Hull's team outscored the opposition by 124 goals while he was on the ice.

These days, it's almost impossible to top +50. Since Gretzky was +70 in 1987, only two players have even reached +55: Vladimir Konstantinov finished +60 in 1996 and Lemieux was +55 in 1993. Even when the league returns to an offensive style at some point in the future, it will take a superhuman effort for someone to hit triple digits in plus/minus.

I'm holding out a 5% chance that the record can be broken, based on the logic that if it happened once, it could happen again, but this one is definitely unbreakable for now.

"Unbreakable" NHL record: Most points in a season
Current record: 215 by Wayne Gretzky (1986)
Odds of being broken: 35% chance

Again, Lemieux had a shot at this one. He was on pace to break the record in 1992-93 when cancer forced him from the lineup. He returned from radiation to score 160 points in only 60 games, a pace that projects to 218 points for an 82-game season.

Gretzky and Lemieux were special players, of course. But every generation has a handful of such players. If the NHL is in the middle of another high-scoring era when the next great player comes along, 215 could get shot down.

Unbreakable NHL Records: Summary
Very few NHL records are truly unbreakable. Forever is a long time, and the game may change in ways that we can't currently imagine. No one ever thought anybody would top the major league baseball record of 61 home runs in a season, but in just a four-year span from 1998 to 2001, six players surpassed that total.

Similarly, there will come another day when NHL teams are averaging five goals a game, and when that happens, many of the offensive stats will be in jeopardy, and many of the most "unbreakable' NHL records will be broken.

Unbreakable NHL Records: Sources
http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=534625&cmpid=rss-kreiser