Using Simple Statistics to Determine NBA Contenders

These days in the NBA, it is tough to determine how good a team really is. We can obviously tell that the team with the best record is a championship contender and the teams with the worst are not, but what about the teams in-between? There are a number of statistics provided by the NBA, and some of these numbers may end up solving this puzzle for casual NBA fans:

• To start out with, teams that are on the edge of greatness must have a good overall record. This does not mean they have to win sixty games. Anything around fifty or more wins in a season constitutes as a good season. You won't see many teams with under fifty wins making it to the NBA Finals, much less winning it. This is the reason why last season teams like the Clippers and Nuggets were not taken seriously as contenders.
• After looking at the overall record, check the road record as well. Every team has a built-in advantage at home. Even the worst teams find ways to pull upsets off when they are playing at home. Winning on the road, however, against a hostile atmosphere on a consistent basis is impressive. Last season, the only five teams to have a winning road record were the Detroit Pistons, Miami Heat, Dallas Mavericks, San Antonio Spurs and Phoenix Suns. Is it any coincidence that four of those teams were in their respective conference finals (due to a playoff seeding mishap that has been fixed the Spurs had to face the Mavericks in the second round and lost in a close seven-game series.)

So far we have discussed very basic methods to finding good teams in the NBA. Using the standards listed above, the teams that are contenders this season are the Detroit Pistons, Dallas Mavericks, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets. Surprisingly, most of these contenders come from the West. But we all know only one of the five Western teams listed above can make it out of their conference. So which one will it be? Lets look at further criteria to determine the answer:

• Lets start out by looking at each contender's record against other contenders. This will give us insight to how these teams play against the best competition. Because the Pistons are the only team listed from the East, we will assume for now they will make it at least to the Finals (though that is anything but given.) The records of each of the Western teams against the other five contenders are listed below as follows:
  • Dallas Mavericks: 8-4. The Mavericks still have a game left with the Spurs, Pistons and Jazz. They have two games left with the Suns.
  • San Antonio Spurs: 6-7. The Spurs still have a game left with the Pistons, Jazz, Suns and Mavericks.
  • Phoenix Suns: 4-6. The Suns still have a game left with the Pistons, Spurs and Jazz. They have two games a piece left with Dallas and Houston.
  • Utah Jazz: 9-3. The Jazz still have a game left with the Mavericks, Spurs and the Suns. They have two games left with the Rockets.
  • Houston Rockets: 4-9. The Rockets have a game left with the Pistons. They also have two games left with both the Jazz and the Suns.
• Looking at the above records, we can determine a couple of things. The first is that while the Rockets are clearly an improved team from last season, they are not championship contenders yet. They would need to win their remaining five games against championship contenders to reach .500.
• The surprise of the statistic is Utah. Despite having ten less wins, and ten more losses, than Dallas, the Jazz excel better than the Mavericks in big games.
• Phoenix and San Antonio both have room to improve their records. Despite only being one game under .500, however, the Spur's record should cause more worry from fans than the Sun's does. The Spurs have only five games remaining against high-profile teams while the Suns have seven.

So now we have eliminated one team, the Houston Rockets, from championship contention. Now what?

• Playoff experience is vital to a long postseason run. The Mavericks are fresh off a NBA Finals trip last season. The Spurs were the champions the year before that. And the Suns will be making their third straight trip with the last two seeing them reach the Western Conference Finals. The Utah Jazz? They were watching the aforementioned teams on television last season during the playoffs. It is hard to see a first-time playoff team make a run to the Finals.

Now our Western contenders are left as Dallas, San Antonio and Phoenix. The three best records in the NBA...not much of a stretch right? But how do you choose between the three? Lets look at three final key components:

• Defense wins championships and is a large reason why the Mavericks made the Finals over the Suns last season. Let's look at the individual statistics of each of the three remaining teams. The two most important defensive team stats are field-goal percentage allowed and points allowed per game. Out of the two, field-goal percentage is more important because teams who play a faster tempo, Phoenix or Chicago are good examples, give up more possessions and more points naturally.
  • The San Antonio Spurs have the best points allowed per game at an even 90.0. They allow a field-goal percentage of 44.1, which is third best.
  • The Dallas Mavericks allow 92.2 points per game with an allowed field-goal percentage of 44.8.
  • The Phoenix Suns allow 102.7 points per game, and give up a field goal percentage of 45.5.

• On the other hand, offense is just as critical, even though slightly less important, to winning championships as defense is. Lets look at how the same three teams stack up on the other end of the floor using field-goal percentage and points scored per game.
  • The Mavericks score 100.4 points per game and shoot a field-goal percentage of 46.6, good for ninth and sixth in the league respectively.
  • The Spurs score 98.5 points per game but shoot 47.3 percent from the floor.
  • The Suns lead the league in both points and field-goal percentage, with 110.5 and 49.4 percent respectively.

• A final key statistic to look at is the assists to turnover ratio. Teams that have good offensive flow will be at the top of the league in assists. On the other end, teams that commit the least amount of turnovers usually do not allow other teams back into games they are controlling. Having a high assist to turnover ratio is key to success:
  • Dallas Mavericks: 1.56 assists/turnover.
  • San Antonio Spurs: 1.65 assists/turnover
  • Phoenix Suns: 1.45 assists/turnover

So what is the final conclusion? The Spurs have the best defense in the league, they shoot a high field-goal percentage and they take care of the ball. They may not have fifty wins like Dallas or a two-time MVP like Phoenix, but they know how to get the job done. They also have a knack for winning a title every other year (they won in 2003 and 2005).

So by the statistics, expect to see the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals once again to face the Detroit Pistons.