VA Governor's Race: Where's Obama

Bloomberg online ran a story October 15 reporting that a recent trend toward the Democratic Party in Virginia might be in danger. The Democratic Party touted Virginia as a purple state turning blue after President Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win the state in more than 40 years in the race for President.

The current governor in Virginia is a Democrat, and both Senators from Virginia are Democrats. But in this year's governor's race, it is a Republican that is firmly ahead in the polls. With the election just about a month away, Republican Bob McDonnell holds an average lead in the polls of about 9 percentage points over Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds.

The story says, "The climate in Washington is 'making it harder in places like Virginia,' Warner said. 'The challenge is also that the presidential-year electorate often looks different than the gubernatorial-year electorate.' Virginia and New Jersey hold the only gubernatorial races this year, and Virginia in particular is being examined as a barometer of Obama's political strength or of a budding Republican resurgence that could carry over into the 2010 congressional elections."

So the question is, where is President Obama? He did some campaigning for Deeds early on in the race, but as McDonnell's lead has held steady, the President has backed away from the contest, perhaps trying to distance himself from a probable Democratic loss.

The story says, "McDonnell, the Post poll showed, is running well among the voters who delivered the state for Obama, namely independent- leaning men and suburban women, voters who are both less ideological and partisan. The Republican also has history on his side: Virginia hasn't elected a governor from the party that holds the White House since 1973."

Speaking of Obama, the story adds: "Obama, who campaigned in Virginia at least 30 times in the 2008 campaign, has returned just once to support Deeds. Vice President Joe Biden attended a fundraiser for the Democratic candidate Oct. 8. Blacks, who made up 20 percent of the vote in Virginia in 2008 and also helped secure the president's victory, are tepid about Deeds."

I think the same will hold true in the congressional mid-terms, with respect to African-American voters. The enthusiasm associated with a potential African-American president won't surface in 2010. "Republicans," the story says, "haven't tried to tie Deeds to Obama. Instead, they have made the Democratic congressional leaders, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, the target of negative ads."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aNznyE20hVp8