Venezuela: Odds Increasing for Armed Conflict with Colombia

Chavez's exaggerated and irrational grandstanding is nothing new, having called for preparations for war with Colombia repeatedly over the past two years. Chavez has continuously referred to the neighboring nation as the puppet of the "empire", namely the United States. Every leader in history who traveled the road to dictatorship has needed a scapegoat to justify drastic measures or distract public attention from the failure of his policies. Chavez finds himself at a crossroads on September 26 when parliamentary elections are scheduled. Chavez currently enjoys an absolute majority in Venezuela's parliament, as all opposition parties boycotted the previous elections in 2005. Chavez' s opponents have no intention of sitting this one out, and it's widely believed that his Bolivarian party will lose badly, a direct result of the hardships endured by common Venezuelans, enraged by the collapsing economy, scores of business and property expropriations on Chavez's personal orders, numerous radio and TV station shutdowns or takeovers, the jailing of dissidents, not to mention chronic electricity and food shortages.

It is therefore predictable that he might do anything, to paraphrase Chavez himself, to prevent his power base and his plan to transform Venezuela into a Cuba-like state from being eroded September 26. He could corrupt the vote, jail the opposition on trump charges (his favorite is conspiracy to assassinate him), or , and this is what I fear, fabricate a threat to national security that warrants canceling the election. His stars are currently aligned should he choose to do the latter: Uribe, his arch enemy, is about to be replaced by Juan Manuel Santos, who has used a conciliatory tone; the USA, his only real military worry, is perceived as being weak under President Obama and doesn't have the stomach to intervene militarily in the region, especially since Chavez currently enjoys the support of Russia.

Bearing in mind the considerable efforts Chavez has made to undermine the stability of Colombia over the years, one might get the sense that an eventual expropriation of the neighboring country could be one of his Bolivarian plans. There's little doubt Chavez shelters, finances, and arms rebel groups on a continuing basis, and has intentionally sabotaged commerce between the countries in order to divide public opinion among Colombians (the strategy worked). He also meddled in Colombia's presidential elections this year by proclaiming that if Santos won, there would surely be war (it didn't work, Santos won by a landslide). Venezuelan police also regularly incarcerate ordinary Colombians living or visiting Venezuela, accusing them of espionage. Lastly, Chavez has relentlessly vilified and insulted Colombian dignitaries, especially Uribe, both on his daily TV show, Alo Presidente, as well as on the international stage.

This is one time I'm hoping I'm wrong, however even if I am about the timing, I have absolutely no fear of equivocation when I say that Chavez will eventually seek to emulate his imaginary mentor, Simon Bolivar, and "liberate" South America.

For more insights into Hugo Chavez's handling of Colombia, visit O Colombia.