Very Low Solar Activity Causes Some to Speculate About a New Dalton Minimum
But 2006 and 2007, according to NASA data, passed without any sign of a new solar cycle. During this time, the sun remained unusually quiet. Then, in early 2008, scientists finally found what they were waiting for -- a single sunspot with a reversed magnetic polarity. As a switch in magnetic polarity usually presages an increase in sunspot activity building up to a new solar maximum, scientists around the world proclaimed the new solar cycle had finally begun.
Now, nearly two months later, NASA observations show the sun is still unusually quiet. Day after day, the sun displays few, if any, sunspots. Even coronal holes are curiously absent. The long solar minimum now stretching into its third year coupled with curiously low solar activity even for a solar minimum is causing some scientists to speculate if the sun is entering a period of anemic activity like the most recent Dalton Minimum.
According to Wikipedia, the Dalton Minimum was a period of low solar activity stretching from 1790 to 1830. Like other long period solar minimums such as the Maunder Minimum and the Sporer Minimum, it resulted in crop failures, lower than average global temperatures, and little ice age conditions in the Northern Hemisphere.
If the sun is entering a new period of very low activity it would presage a 30 year or more drop in global temperatures. Some scientists are already beginning to speculate that just this sort of thing may be occurring now. According to Astronomer David Whitehouse, "It's something we must take seriously because what happened in the 17th century is bound to happen again some time. Recent work studying the periods when our Sun loses its sunspots, along with data on other Sun-like stars that may be behaving in the same way, suggests that our Sun may spend between 10 and 25 per cent of the time in this state. Perhaps the lateness of cycle 24 might even be the start of another Little Ice Age."
Usually, the first signs that the sun is emerging from its period of latent activity is the appearance of a series of small sunspots in the high latitudes. Whitehouse notes that these reverse polarity sunspots usually occur 12-20 months before the start of a new solar cycle. With only one high altitude sunspot discovered so far, what does this indicate about the sun's current state? According to Whitehouse, "the longer we have to wait for cycle 24 the weaker it will be. Such behavior is usually followed by cooler temperatures on Earth."
Published by Robert Fanney
An author of fantasy novels for teens and young adults, Robert's epic series, Luthiel's Song is a favorite among young readers and librarians and has been nominated for three awards. Robert is a former polic... View profile
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9 Comments
Post a CommentDespite the longest solar minimum in nearly a century, world temperatures are continuing to rise. The decade of 2001-2010 (as some have noted) was the hottest on record. Further, the 2010 climate year was also the hottest on record. According to the science, it would seem to clearly indicate that greenhouse gasses are overwhelming all natural influences on climate.
According to NASA, this was the hottest decade on record.
The last time solar activity was this low world average temperatures were about three degrees lower.
Perhaps we should drive more gas guzzlers and build more coal fire power plants to reverse this cooling. lol
I don't know much about the Dalton Minimum but I wonder if it has anything to do with the cool July weather we have been experiencing. Is it going to get worst?
More than a year after this article was written, the long solar minimum continues.
Thank you for your summary.
Concerned by the climatic effects on Public Health, these observations are causes for concerns.
The period from 1790 to 1830 was deadly for many in the Boreal Hemisphere from various of bugs.
cf: http://www.flutrackers.com
cf: http://www.newfluwiki2.com
ThanK you,
Achak, alias Snowy Owl,
Algonquin Medicine Man
Indeed it is indeed it is, and they're still waiting since reading a recent forum posted on the 3rd march
Fascinating subject, and very well written!