Virginia and New Jersey Results: Why Republicans Won

The Republicans scored huge triumphs in Virginia and New Jersey, taking all three statewide offices in the former state and the Governor's office in the latter. The margins of victory in Virginia were especially crushing, in double digits.

Naturally people are being assured that these victories have absolutely so significance whatsoever, either for 2010, or for Obama's chances in 2012. There are two ways to look at that claim.

Exit polling data suggests that while President Obama and his policies were a factor, they were not the only or even the main factor. McDonnell, the now Governor Elect of Virginia, campaigned on fiscal and local issues important to Virginians against a candidate, Creigh Deeds, who was a somewhat less than competent politician. Chris Christie hit New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine on taxes and corruption, both of which weighed down the multi millionaire Governor and eventually ensured his defeat.

On the other hand, McDonnell hit Obama policies hard, pointing out how they had adversely affected Virginia. Jon Corzine had embraced President Obama like a long lost friend, having him in New Jersey to campaign multiple times and even handing over the control of his campaign to Obama operatives. That did not save him.

Which explanation is true? Likely both are to a certain extent. What would have happened if Obama's policies were more popular is something that is unknown, but will surely be hotly argued about.

What cannot be argued about is that the twin triumphs for the Republican Party represent a comeback for the GOP. Republicans were thrashed in 2008 and, as is often the case, those who hand down received wisdom predicted either the permanent loss of power for the GOP or years, perhaps decades in the wilderness.

One year after President Bill Clinton had turned Bush 41 out of office, Republicans won the Governorships of Virginia and New Jersey as well. Rudi Giuliani became Mayor of New York. That was the prelude for the tsunami of 1994 in which Republicans swept Senate and House races, changing forever the character of the Clinton era.

Is history going to repeat itself? Republicans have a steeper hill to climb in the Senate, though a 1994 style victory would turn Nancy Pelosi out of the House Speaker's chair. 2010 largely depends on the economy, the behavior of the Obama administration, unforeseeable foreign crises, and one other thing.

Will Republicans coalesce around an agenda to run on? It will not be enough to run against Obama. They must run for something, a vision of low taxes, limited government, and an aggressive foreign policy that would bring the prosperity and peace that seem to be lacking under President Obama. The GOP did it before with the Contract with America. If they can do it again, and this time stick with the agenda, there is nothing the Republicans cannot accomplish.

Source: Blogosphere Election Nigh Roundup, Ed Driscoll, Pajamas Media, November 3rd, 2009