Virginia Senate Polls Say Mark Warner Ahead of James Gilmore by 30-Point Spread

With just days to go until the election, the Virginia Senate race between Mark Warner (D) and James S. Gilmore, III (R) looks like a runaway. According to recent polling for the Virginia Senate race, James Gilmore trails Mark Warner by a seemingly unrecoverable margin of 30 points. Both men are former Virginia governors who are seeking Republican John Warner's (no relation) Senate seat. The Commonwealth's constitution forbids governors from seeking a second term. Interestingly, Gilmore served as governor immediately preceding Mark Warner.

Virginia Senate race: Gilmore Down by 30 points

The Washington Post reported that James Gilmore has trailed Mark Warner by 30 points in Virginia Senate race polling, and has trailed Warner by that margin in polls dating back even as far as one year ago. The Real Clear Politics (RCP) average supports this, currently listing the spread at 60.8% to 30.8% in favor of Warner. The RCP averages several polls to obtain its average.

The closest spread for the two former governors is the Mason-Dixon poll of one week ago in which Warner held a 25 point lead on Gilmore, and the widest spread is the VCU poll during the same time period where Warner holds a 34 point lead on Gilmore.

Gilmore aligning himself with Palin

James Gilmore is shrewdly aligning himself with the McCain-Palin ticket every chance he gets. He was a speaker at the Sarah Palin rally held on Columbus Day in Richmond, Virginia and also made an appearance at the Sarah Palin rally held on the 27th in Fredericksburg, Virginia. The rally in Richmond drew by some accounts 20,000 - 25,000 spectators and the Fredericksburg rally drew a more modest 8,000 despite the cold, rainy conditions.

According to the Fredericksburg, Virginia Free Lance-Star article that appeared on October 26, 2008, the Fredericksburg area, which encompasses the City, as well as the surrounding counties, generally votes Republican overall. However, the City of Fredericksburg typically votes Democratic. In the 2004 election, the area voted overwhelmingly for George Bush. Campaigning on the coat tails of Sarah Palin, who draws large crowds, may help Gilmore on Election Day; however, other than the Mason-Dixon poll aforementioned, Warner has a clear advantage at picking up the open Senate seat.

Sources:

http://loudounextra.washingtonpost.com/news/2008/oct/27/gilmore-still-down-30-points-va-poll/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/va/virginia_senate-537.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Warner

http://www.jimgilmoreforsenate.com/?q=node/619

http://fredericksburg.com/blogs/view?blogger_id=20

Print: The Free Lance-Star, "Virginia Has A Role" by Chelyen Davis, October 26, 2008 (Vol. 124 No. 300)