Want to Predict the NBA?

Recent trends in the NBA seem to show an up-tick in offensive production. This should come as no surprise: the NBA has recently tweaked the rules to encourage more production, going so far as to chop two seconds off the traditional 10 second back-court violation in order to quicken the tempo.

In the earlier years of this decade, however, high scores were not standard. In the 2004 championship, won by the Detroit Pistons, one of the best defensive teams in recent NBA history, the regular season witnessed only 2 teams surpassing the century mark in average points per game.

Over the last couple of years, though, the NBA offensive up-tick has been noticeable. When examining points per game (ppg), the data reveals that in '05, there were six teams, in '06 five, and this year no less than 10 teams that average at least 100 ppg (with a couple more on the verge of crossing the three digit threshold), led by Phoenix at

But the high-flyers who score the most points, despite some success, do not have a stranglehold on the championship trophy. In 2006, it was Phoenix who sat alone atop the statistical heap at 8 ppg more than champ Miami.

In 2005, it was again Phoenix who compiled the gaudiest of stats. At over 110 ppg, the Suns outscored the Spurs, who eventually won the title, by over 14 ppg.

The year of defense in the NBA, 2004, gave us Dallas and Sacramento as the only franchises on the plus side of a hundred points a game. The champ, Detroit, averaged 15 points per game less than those run and gun Mavericks.

However, points per game do seem to give some indication of playoff success; Phoenix, Dallas, and Miami (when Wade is healthy), three perennial contenders, all score in bunches and have consistent success in the playoffs. But what else do they bring, outside of scoring prowess, which makes them championship material?

The answer is a cliché. Or, rather, a kind of cliché: coach-speak. Those annoying, roll-your-eyes, in-one-ear-and-out-the-other phrases grade school coaches keep pelting at their neophyte ballers. Then high school coaches repeat the refrain. Then summer league coaches, and international league coaches, and big time college coaches, all the way up to the NBA's elite coaches. Take good shots. Rebound, rebound, rebound. Don't waste possessions. In stat-speak (the geek equivalent to coach-speak), the language of NBA championship contenders revolves around offensive efficiency, field goal percentage, and total rebounds.

In 2006, all four squads in the conference finals (Miami, Detroit, Dallas, and Phoenix) finished in the top 10 in offensive efficiency. This fairly obscure stat measures a group's ability to make every possession count (just like coach says) by dividing a team's total possessions by their total points in any given game. At the end of 2005, three of the final four teams placed in the top 10 in offensive efficiency, the Spurs, Heat, and Suns.

Anyone who has ever laced up to run up and down the hardwood with a coach will tell you they will not lay off the taking-good-shots thing. Find the open man, square your shoulders, full extension; and so on and so on until you want to tell coach to shut up already, you get it. But coaches pester for good reason. In 2006 and in 2005, three of the final four NBA teams playing placed in the top 10 in field goal percent.

Rebounding. Cheerleaders have concocted chants about it; fans scream it from the stands and at home; and coaches live by it. Again, looking at the final four teams from both 2005 and 2006, three of four of the NBA's best placed in the top 10 in total rebounds.

For an exercise in understanding the importance of coach-speak, take the 2006 Miami Heat. The NBA champs were a team that scored well (sixth overall in points per game), but also modeled the best of what coaches desire in their teams. At the end of the season they placed in the top five in defensive rebounds, field goal percent, and offensive efficiency.

So while offensive production does give some indication of success, it is certainly not a Rosetta stone for deciphering NBA championship capability. So what is? There are no secret, magical statistical formulas that reveal, Ouija-like, the next star player to set his lips against the round, golden trophy. But determining which team listens to coach most, even in the NBA, goes a long way. Find the team that combines (statistically) great ball handling, great shooting, and a tenacity for rebounding. Find the best coach-speak team.

(statistics compiled from Basketball-Reference.com, http://www.basketball-reference.com)