Wanted: A Southern State Vote For The Democrats

As many Democrats are seeking to become the presidential candidate for the party, it is interesting to see how things will play out and if the candidates and the registered voters have learned there lessons. In 2004, John Kerry, despite not being considered the favorite, won the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary. From there, Kerry won a number of early primaries, securing the nomination fairly early.

What interested and amazed me was the claim of the voters, saying they voted for John Kerry because he had the best chance of beating George W. Bush. I wondered at the time if I had missed something and even now, thinking about it in retrospect, I wonder if I missed something. Forget for a moment whether or not this is true, the fact is Kerry was going to be portrayed as a Northeastern Liberal; A tax and spend Democrat from Massachusetts; The reincarnation of Ted Kennedy.

I wondered, at the time, how this would play out during the general election. I wondered at the time how he would be able to compete in the South. I could not believe voters were claiming the reason they voted for him in the primaries was because he had the best chance against Bush. It did not make sense to me then and obviously the majority of voters did not feel Kerry would be a better president.

Four years earlier, Al Gore ran against Bush. Gore, a Democrat from Tennessee, a Southerner, could not take a single southern state. Gore was not even able to take his home state. It was not Florida that lost the election for him, it was Tennessee. The fact that a sitting Vice President could not even carry his home state shows he forgot Tip O'Niel's valuable lesson that all politics are local. The bottom line, however, is both Kerry and Gore lost because of their ability to carry a southern state.

When looking at the big picture when it comes to elections, it is time to stop looking at who is more popular overall and start focusing more on blue and red states. How likely is it for a Democrat to win a general election without carrying a single state from the south.

Right now, for Hillary Clinton (or any Democrat to win the presidential election), she most take everything Al Gore carried in 2000 and one more state (possibly just a little more because of reapportionment). Can Hillary take Florida? Is Arkansas a possibility? Can any Democrat take states from the South?

Originally I felt that Hillary Clinton would not be able to carry something from the south. That could still be the case as she will be viewed by many southerners as a New York liberal. Still, I think there is a very real possibility she maybe able to take Arkansas. This is far from a given, however, residents of Arkansas are familiar with the former first lady. In addition, another big mistake Al Gore made in 2000 was trying to distance himself from Bill Clinton and not have the President campaign on his behalf.

While he is no longer the sitting president, the fact is Bill Clinton maybe the reason that Hillary will be able to carry Arkansas. Certainly the South has not been good to Democrats in the past two elections. Perhaps Hillary Clinton has more of a chance than most other Democrats to carry a state or two in the south. That may be all she needs to put her over the top.