Was the "Swine" Flu H1N1 Nightmare Predicted?

Are there people who predicted the 2009 H1N1 "Swine" flu pandemic? Is predicting a pandemic flu virus like predicting rain in the monsoon season? What I read in a Journal of Infectious Disease article, dated 1997, may surprise you.

To understand the weight of the 1997 Journal article, let's take a look at the flu viruses involved in H1N1 and see what makes them unique.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), the Current 2009 A/H1N1 is likely a Swine-Origin Influenza Virus Or S-OIV.

The common use of the word "swine" in reference to the current pandemic flu virus is somewhat misleading when it comes to the actual genetic make-up of the virus. Interestingly, The Europa Press Room cites the European Union as calling it the "Novel" or "New" Flu. The reason that the name "swine flu " is somewhat misleading is that the virus is not related to the recent or past seasonal influenza viruses.

The genetics of 2009 A/H1N1 virus is further explained by the WHO:
"The 2009 S-OIV H1N1 therefore has inherited virus gene segments of all three swine, human and avian origin" This appears to state that 2009 A/H1N1 is a "mutant" product of human, avian and swine influenza viruses.

Breaking down the three Viruses that make up H1N1:

Avian flu: The Avian flu is a contagious, viral, animal disease that normally infects only birds and occasionally pigs. The influenza strains that infects birds are just that, bird diseases and they rarely infect humans. the virus has very little ability to cross over to other species. Much in the same way the family cat doesn't get sick even when the rest of the family is ill.

One of the avian flu viruses that has crossed from avian species to humans is H5N1. As flu viruses go, H5N1 is very dangerous and more so when it infects humans. It causes a high rate of severe infections and even death. I should be clear to point out that, H5N1 is NOT H1N1.

Human influenza is a viral infection caused by an influenza virus. There are three types of seasonal influenza: A, B and C. For instance the seasonal A/H2N3 is an A type influenza virus. A and B types are the most common influenza viruses.

Swine flu:
Swine flu is an infection by any one of several types of swine influenza virus, one of which is H1N1. Which is different than 2009 A/H1N1.

The 2009 A/H1N1 virus, according to the World Health Organization "Has never before circulated among humans."

The prediction:

Found in the Journal of Infectious Diseases a 1997 article "Predictions for Future Human Influenza Pandemics" written by; Robert G Webster of the Department of Virology/Molecular Biology, St. Jude Children Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee:

"Will there be another human influenza pandemic? The certainty is that there will be, and the probability is that the virus will emerge from Eurasian aquatic bird reservoirs and involve reassortment between a human and avian strain, with accumulation of mutations or true recombinational events (or both) that will permit spread and pathogenicity among humans. This process will probably occur in pigs because they possess receptors for both avian and human influenza viruses, and emergence may occur in southern China. Prediction of the subtype is impossible, but there is a hypothesis based on seroarcheology that only H1, H2, and H3 subtypes can infect humans; however, it is arguable that H7 or H2 strains might be equally capable of infecting humans."

Found at JSTOR

© 1997 by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.

The first known H5N1 infection in humans occurred in 1997 when 18 people in Hong Kong developed serious cases of H5N1 influenza which resulted in the death of six.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases website (NAID) said that in 1999 a new influenza H9N2 showed up for the first time in humans. It caused the sickness of two children in Hong Kong and poultry was likely the source. H9N2 is an "A" Type influenza Virus commonly called the "Bird Flu"

Wikipedia article ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic ) states that scientific analysis concluded that: six out of eight genetic segments of the 2009 A/H1N1 flu virus arose from a North American flu strain that has been circulating since 1998, when the first ever reported triple-Hybrid flu virus was identified on a North Carolina farm.

The year 1998? Isn't that one year after Dr. Webster's article circulated in the Journal?

On the NAID website, there is a time line showing that a "New" strain of H1N1 is confirmed in Mexico in April 2009. Within weeks the infection spread to the U.S. and the rest of the world.

On June 11, 2009, the WHO declared the outbreak to be a pandemic.

Dr. Webster had foreseen the Avian, Swine and Human flu strains coming together and "mutating." He also had it passing from swine to humans. He had an arguable point of origin. He wrote; "emergence may occur in southern China."

Though the outbreak seemed to originate in Mexico, A Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic) states that the origin of the 2009 A/H1N1 virus is yet unknown.

The avian flu viruses are very species specific, that being said we have seen H5N1 in 1997, H9N2 in 1999 and now we have a "new" flu. A "new" flu that includes genetic material found in avian type influenza.

Is it a mere coincidence that a year after Dr. Webster's article was published, the gears of the pandemic started to shift into High gear? I think not. I also don't believe that it is coincidence that he guessed at the conclusion that a "Triple-Hybrid-influenza" pandemic was on the horizon.

Though I have more questions than answers on the subject of the 2009 A/H1N1 "Pandemic", I believe that Dr. Webster was right in his prediction. His article was published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases in 1997. That was prior to at least two avian strains appeared to have crossed the species barrier and show up in a lab.

What are your thoughts on the flu? Please leave a comment.