Water on the Moon; What Comes Next?

The theory that the moon's permanently shadowed craters contain water ice has been postulated by scientists for decades. In 1994, the Clementine probe found indications. In November, NASA's LCROSS probe confirmed it.

When LCROSS impacted the floor of the Cabeus crater at the lunar south pole, it created what scientist Paul Spudis called an "ice rainbow" in the form of a plume of ice particles and other ejecta. Scientists concluded there is water on the moon in "significant amounts."

Given this milestone discovery, what happens next?

Moon water has thrust space exploration -- and Houston as its home base -- into the public consciousness again. Two semi-private efforts are underway that could drive increased interest in the space program.

The confirmation of water on the moon has been called the equivalent of the discovery of gold in California in the mid 19th century. Over the long term, water's presence on the moon eases the burden of establishing a human settlement, an idea that has serious implications for policy-makers contemplating the future of human space exploration.

But more immediately, the Johnson Space Center in Houston has initiated "Project M," according to NASA Watch. The goal of "Project M" would be to place a lander on the lunar surface within 1,000 days. The blog AmericaSpace suggests "Project M" will be conducted quite unlike NASA's usual space missions. There will no prime contractors, "no road blocks" and an attitude of "just use the best engineers in the world to get the job done on time."

Presumably such a lander could live in a permanently shadowed crater at one of the lunar poles to further confirm and measure the presence of water ice. The lander could also include a rover that measures ice and other materials at various points.

"Project M," should it get off the ground, would constitute a rare way of doing business at NASA. For one, the Johnson Space Center is better known for manned space flight; it is the home of Mission Control, which directs space shuttle flights and the International Space Station. Most notably, "Project M" would be done with a minimal amount of bureaucracy, paperwork and political interference.

In the meantime, NASA is contemplating matching the $30 million award offered by the Google Lunar X Prize for the first private group to place an instrument package on the lunar surface. This move would leverage the private sector to put one or more landers on the moon.

The Google Lunar X Prize was established by the X Prize Foundation and Google to encourage exploration by private enterprise. $20 million will be awarded to the first private team to land an instrument package on the lunar surface by Dec. 31, 2012. If no one claims that prize, the amount drops to $15 million if a team can land a probe on the moon two years later, at the end of 2014. Additional $5 million prizes will be awarded for building rovers, imaging man-made lunar objects and other tasks.

NASA investing in a private space venture for its own purpose is not unprecedented. NASA runs its own technology competition called the Centennial Challenges, which recently has conducted a lunar lander simulator competition. NASA has also invested in private space launch firms under the Commercial Orbital Transportation Systems program to develop commercial means to resupply the International Space Station.

Matching funds from NASA for the Google Lunar X prize would constitute a rare kind of public/private space exploration project. Solutions such as "Project M" and the Google contest, made necessary by tight budgets, could prove to be models for more ambitious space exploration efforts going forward.